2005 Season Active Or Not "It Only Takes One"

[Anonymous]

This is true....we don't know the postition and strength of the Bermuda high this year. Let me prephrase my statement with IMHO....

People blame the Bermuda high needlessly. It was the position of troughs that guided storms into Florida, NOT the Bermuda high. Upper air patterns were far more instrumental in creating a situation that is probably hard to duplicate for the future. As everybody has pointed out, however, a landfall in extreme South Florida is NOT unusual, and ONE storm landfalling could happen in any given year, even a slow one (case in point--Andrew, whose landfall owed itself to troughs and favorable upper atmospheric conditions, not a Bermuda high).

I have to disagree. Frances was steered west because of the high, as was Jeanne.

[x-y-no]

... (case in point--Andrew, whose landfall owed itself to troughs and favorable upper atmospheric conditions, not a Bermuda high).

Don't know what trough was associated with Andrew's landfall in Florida ... unless you're going all the way back to the August 20 timeframe. TS Andrew was steered NW by a trough extending south from an ULL SW of Bermuda. But by the time he was approaching South Florida's latitude, the ULL had split, with one piece diving towards the Carribean (nicely ventilating the storm) and the rest retreating north as the ridge built back from the west.

Once he'd made his turn to the west, the ridge stayed strong to his north until he'd crossed into the Gulf.

I guess one can debate whether the ridge to his north was the "Bermuda High" or not ... to me the main point is that it was a big strong ridge situated across and off of the east coast.

[cyclonaut]

Well let me rephrase about what I agree with because after having read that a 2nd time I dont agree with everything in Chasr's post.

Sometimes trough positions & just how much amplitude there is does help indirectly determine where a ridge will ultimately set up.Having said that when Andrew made its turn & headed for South Fla that was all High Pressure induced like x-y-no just poined out.I guess that the only thing I sort of agree with is that to much blame or focus is put on the BH when there are other factors which play a big role in how & where a hurricane goes when it comes to Florida.

[boca]

Boca_Chris I live in West Boca 441 and glades

[StormChasr]

I have to disagree. Frances was steered west because of the high, as was Jeanne.

I disagree. There were troughs directing all of the storms into Florida. The Bermuda High was blamed for everything, as a catch all. Wind patterns are very different so far, and the ocean is very cold for this time of year.

[Anonymous]

Look, I understand you don't want hurricanes to hit your state, and I hope they don't as well, but the high DID steer hurricanes into Florida...

CHARLEY: Was steered west by ridge until trough pushed him Northeast into Florida.

FRANCES: Was steered west into the Bahamas by ridge.

IVAN: The ridge built in even farther west than expected, pushing Ivan more into the Gulf.

JEANNE: Jeanne sat and spun until high built back in to push it west into Florida.

From what I see from others, and heard from Dr. Landsea, it appears the ridge will build similar to last season.

As for waters, they are normal this time of year:


All I can do is wish people the best and prepare for whatever Hurricane Season 2005 will throw.

[StormChasr]

As for waters, they are normal this time of year:

65 degrees in Daytona Beach in Mid April is DEFINITELY NOT NORMAL, by any stretch of the imagination. I live here, and would know what normal water temps are.

[Anonymous]

Whatever you say

[Derek Ortt]

floyd,

my latest research project is showing that it was not the bermuda high, but a long wave ridge that allowed frances, ivan, and jeanne (especially ivan) to take the paths in which they did.

charley never would have hit florida had it not been for the trough, but that was the most directly related to the bermuda high of all of the hurricanes last year

[x-y-no]

floyd,

my latest research project is showing that it was not the bermuda high, but a long wave ridge that allowed frances, ivan, and jeanne (especially ivan) to take the paths in which they did.

I'd be real interested in reading more about this when you're ready to make your work public.

Jan

[Derek Ortt]

wont be all that long.

at shuyi's trop met class project presentations in early may (though will have more work to do afterwards as this will likely become a paper)