I'm not buyin' it.....
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Yankeegirl
- Category 5
- Posts: 3417
- Age: 49
- Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 11:59 pm
- Location: Cy-Fair, Northwest Houston
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vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 29113
- Age: 73
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Cypress, TX
- Contact:
This says you could be wrong Jen!!! It is from Jeff Lindner, one of our Pro mets here at S2K.
SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the northern 1/3rd of
SE TX until 800pm.
Disscussion:
Well defined MVC with MCS is moving rapidly SE through N TX. Squall
line has rapidly developed within heated air mass over N TX over the
past hour along southward surging gust front. Air mass over SE TX is
still capped with tremendous energy below the cap (4000 J/kg). Storms
should become increasingly surface based over the next few hours as
they reach our northern counties shattering the capping inversion.
Steering vectors favor a SE to SSE motion at 30-40mph. Storms should
reach our northern counties around 600-700pm and into Montgomery
county around 800-900pm and possibly metro Houston after 900pm.
Damaging winds to 70mph will be the main threat with this complex.
This shall begin a wet period for the area with multiple MCS events
possible over the next 3-4 days.
Jeff Lindner
I hope he is right and you are wrong!!!! It could miss us to the East, but I am hoping for some rain out of it. I hope his final statement comes true!!
SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the northern 1/3rd of
SE TX until 800pm.
Disscussion:
Well defined MVC with MCS is moving rapidly SE through N TX. Squall
line has rapidly developed within heated air mass over N TX over the
past hour along southward surging gust front. Air mass over SE TX is
still capped with tremendous energy below the cap (4000 J/kg). Storms
should become increasingly surface based over the next few hours as
they reach our northern counties shattering the capping inversion.
Steering vectors favor a SE to SSE motion at 30-40mph. Storms should
reach our northern counties around 600-700pm and into Montgomery
county around 800-900pm and possibly metro Houston after 900pm.
Damaging winds to 70mph will be the main threat with this complex.
This shall begin a wet period for the area with multiple MCS events
possible over the next 3-4 days.
Jeff Lindner
I hope he is right and you are wrong!!!! It could miss us to the East, but I am hoping for some rain out of it. I hope his final statement comes true!!
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PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5277
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
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weathermom
- Category 2
- Posts: 760
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:59 pm
- Location: North Jersey
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vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 29113
- Age: 73
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Cypress, TX
- Contact:
weathermom wrote:I am with Stepanie, I would happily share some of this dampness with you! It is the end of May and I was wearing a turtleneck, a fleece, a denim jacket and a windbreaker at my daughters softball game last night. (oh, and gloves) As we were leaving it started raining again!
What are those for?LOLOL!!!! I have been noticing that it is definitely much cooler up your way!!!! Geez, when i was in NYC in April 2002 it was freaking 96º!!!
It was 85º for the highs in Houston while I was gone.
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weathermom
- Category 2
- Posts: 760
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:59 pm
- Location: North Jersey
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PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5277
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
Air mass over SE TX unstable this morning with trigger temps. in the mid 80's and dewpoints in the low to mid 70's. Visible images reveal TCu along approaching outflow boundary from C TX MVC and bowing MCS heading for DFW. Seabreeze is also noted along the coast starting to march inland.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the C TX S/W through the afternoon hours helped along by the inland moving seabreeze. S/W subsidence is noted over SC and S TX and this should spread ENE through the afternoon shuting off the rainfall from SW to NE after 300pm.
PWS are near 1.8-2.1 inches and steering currents are weak so thunderstorms will drop very heavy rainfall in a short period of time. Some locations could easily see 2-3 inches in an hour.
Additional S/W activity and mean upper trough will approach from the W and SW Sunday into Monday. Models (GFS and to some degree the NAM) show a big blow up of convection (another MCS) over SW TX tonight and head it for SE and E TX on Sunday. Feeling is this complex will also weaken as it approaches, but increasing dyanmics aloft will fuel widespread thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. MCS may form over or just west of the region and move very slowly across.
Even though grounds are dry, deep layered moisture, the potential for training, and slow storm motions point to excessive rainfall over the region through the middle of next week. Grounds will gradually saturate with increased run-off into bayous, creek, and rivers. This will have to be watched, especially if we are nailed by multiple MCS's.
Upper level ridging never really builds back into the region with a chance of seabreeze driven convection through much of next week.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the C TX S/W through the afternoon hours helped along by the inland moving seabreeze. S/W subsidence is noted over SC and S TX and this should spread ENE through the afternoon shuting off the rainfall from SW to NE after 300pm.
PWS are near 1.8-2.1 inches and steering currents are weak so thunderstorms will drop very heavy rainfall in a short period of time. Some locations could easily see 2-3 inches in an hour.
Additional S/W activity and mean upper trough will approach from the W and SW Sunday into Monday. Models (GFS and to some degree the NAM) show a big blow up of convection (another MCS) over SW TX tonight and head it for SE and E TX on Sunday. Feeling is this complex will also weaken as it approaches, but increasing dyanmics aloft will fuel widespread thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. MCS may form over or just west of the region and move very slowly across.
Even though grounds are dry, deep layered moisture, the potential for training, and slow storm motions point to excessive rainfall over the region through the middle of next week. Grounds will gradually saturate with increased run-off into bayous, creek, and rivers. This will have to be watched, especially if we are nailed by multiple MCS's.
Upper level ridging never really builds back into the region with a chance of seabreeze driven convection through much of next week.
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