Closed low to form this week in the caribbean?

[Wpwxguy]

I would venture to say the Louisiana coatal area would be the ultimate destination .. What ever it may be at that time. IMO , We still need the rain here.

Bill

[dhweather]

Anyone want to go out on a limb and guess where this Upper level low may end up once entering the GOM?

Wherever it wants to.

[cycloneye]

120 hours



144 hours



168 hours





180 hours

As you can see in this 12z run of the GFS it shows a low that forms near Puerto Rico and moves NE then it goes down in pressure to 1004 mbs but what will be is the question is if conditions will be favorable aloft as it appears that the moistere is to the east of the low.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 052011
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 PM AST SUN JUN 5 2005

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT EAST TO CUBA BY NEXT WEEKEND. ON
MONDAY A SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH OVER HISPANIOLA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM FLORIDA TO THE
NORTHEASTERN BRAZILIAN COAST WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING THE WEEK
INTO A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND CARIBBEAN SEA. NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 70 WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST...BUT WILL LEAVE A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
THE PACIFIC ACROSS PANAMA AND JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL EVENTUALLY A TROUGH FORMS
AROUND MID WEEK NEAR PUERTO RICO. AROUND THE END OF THE WEEK THE
MODEL SHOWS A LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVING
VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD KEEP PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CONVECTION FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS AGAIN GRACED
THE SOUTHERN EXTREME OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FAIRLY SHOUT OF THE GOOD MOISTURE SOUTH OF
US AND WHOSE ICE TOPS ARE BLOWING OFF IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND MUCH OF HISPANIOLA AS WELL
WITH A HEAVY DECK OF CIRRUS.

THE MODEL INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL...SHOWING THE MOISTURE GRADIENT
OVERHEAD WITH DRYER AIR TO THE NORTH AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS AT
UPPER LEVELS GENERATED BY THE LOW PRESSURE NOW SOUTH OF HAITI MOVING
WEST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS WHICH MAY HAVE FORMED AS A RESULT OF THE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION STILL OVER THIS AREA.

HOWEVER WELL INITIALIZED...THE GFS WILL ONLY BE OF GENERAL HELP WITH
THE FORECAST TODAY AS ITS SOLUTION BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE AND WILL
LIKELY CHANGE DRASTICALLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DURING THE
WEEK IT INSISTS ON OVER-DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IT
PLACES NEAR PUERTO RICOS WESTERN SHORES AND MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS CIRCULATION ALSO SEEMS TO START IN ONE PLACE AND
THEN REAPPEAR IN ANOTHER IN THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY AS IT
PROGRESSES. AT ONE TIME MID WEEK...IT ACTUALLY GENERATES TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST SECTOR OF THE LOW.

THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL NOT DEVELOP...THOUGH IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. BECAUSE THE LOW PRESSURE NOW JUST
NORTH OF PANAMA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND FILL MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK...NOT ONLY WILL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA
BE MAINTAINED BEHIND THE RECEDING WAVE...BUT FLOW COMING FROM CLEAR
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AT 10 TO 20 NORTH LATITUDE WILL BE FORCED UP AND
AROUND IT...CAUSING EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE ATLANTIC TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT. THIS WILL
ADD CONSIDERABLE VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN SIDE AND THEREFORE A LOW
SHOULD GENERATE IN THE VICINITY. IN FACT THIS SCENARIO MIGHT EVEN
GENERATE TWO LOWS...THOUGH BOTH WOULD BE RATHER WEAK. WITH LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ON THE EXTREME NORTHEAST END OF THE TROUGH INVADING
THE CARIBBEAN FROM PANAMA AND COLOMBIA...SOUTH WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND CONSIDERABLE
WARMTH AND MOISTURE WOULD BE ADVECTED UP FROM SOUTH AMERICA. THIS
WOULD NOT ONLY FEED THE LOW BUT WOULD MAINTAIN A STREAM OF HIGH
THETA-E AIR OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND KEEP NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...THE WEEKEND AND
EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK. IT WOULD ALSO TEND TO KEEP THE WEEK QUITE
CLOUDY...UNLIKE A NORMAL JUNE...AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO THE
FORECAST...BUT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SPEED AND DIRECTION OF THE WINDS
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE USED GFS DIRECTIONS AND MUTED
THE WIND SPEEDS CONSIDERABLY WHERE NECESSARY.



The above is a great discussion from the NWS in San Juan this afternoon about the interesting situation that may unfold this week.

[vbhoutex]

This will be an interesting situation to watch for sure.

What little I have seen about it(ie I have not done any in depth analysis) would lead me to believe that a mid GOM coast dousing may come from this system. I will go no further at this time with that.

[Anonymous]

http://weather.cod.edu/danatext.html

NWS Keywest Discussion...

GFS IS
AGAIN DEPICTING A STRONGER WAVE/POTENTIAL LOW WITH BETTER DEFINITION
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BEFORE LIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY ECMWF. OUR SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD INCREASE A BIT
THROUGH THE LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK AND NUDGE OUR PRECIP CHANCES UP
ABOUT 10 MORE PERCENT FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL MAKE
THOSE SMALL TIMING ADJUSTMENTS IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS FORECAST.


MARINE

GENTLE TO MODERATE BOUNDARY FLOW FROM THE E/SE WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HAVE DECIDED TO NUDGE OUR WINDS CLOSER TO 15
KNOTS ACROSS ALL WATERS ON THURSDAY AND ALLOWING THEM TO PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH AND WESTERN WATERS. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TREND OF THE POTENTIAL LOW IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN THEN. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AWAY FROM SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

Lake Charles

MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO DECREASE BY MIDWEEK INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK SO LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN STORE. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLING IN THE CARIB COULD AFFECT
THE AREA...BUT WILL NOT HIT IT TOO HARD JUST YET.

Jackson, MS

Code: Select all

UNFORTUNATELY...IT CAN'T BE THAT SIMPLE.  HINTS ARE BEING THROWN BY   
THE MODELS THAT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST EAST OF   
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME THEN MIGRATE   
NORTHWARD BY NEXT WEEKEND.  AFTER SEVERAL HEAD SCRATCHING MOMENTS   
WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM (ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT AND   
FORECAST MOVEMENT ISSUES)...I'VE DECIDED TO LEAVE RAIN CHANCES NEAR   
CLIMATOLOGY.  THIS WILL JUST HAVE TO BE A WAIT-N-SEE GAME THIS FAR   
OUT...AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ONE   
WAY OR THE OTHER DEPENDING ON HOW THIS THING EVOLVES.  /#10/ 

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 120 hours



18z GFS at 144 hours



18z GFS at 156 hours

Ummm this is really caught my attention more closely.

[Anonymous]

HMMM Looks like it wants to just hang out around PR rather than escape to the north now--deeper pressure tooo

Also--I didnt notice this on earlier runs but Gulf Low is there too!

[cyclonaut]

We may be on to somethiong here..I don't know if it will get a name but it might have a shot @ it.

[cycloneye]

http://atmos.uprm.edu:8080/imageloop.jsp?set=1

Press the play button to see the loop of the Caribbean where you can follow a possible tropical,subtropical or hybrid system according to the models in the making or it will be nothing to be concerned about?.

[Anonymous]

http://atmos.uprm.edu:8080/imageloop.jsp?set=1

Press the play button to see the loop of the Caribbean where you can follow a possible tropical,subtropical or hybrid system according to the models in the making or it will be nothing to be concerned about?

Now I think the wave shown in satellite may be the Low to move into the western caribbean and enter the Gulf as the upper low moves WNW and out of the way or it eventually interracts and aquires tropical charcteristics like Bill or Allison. There must be a wave to the east between Africa and the Islands that will become the low North of Puerto Rico in a few days. Impressive convection though although it is (b)ULL enhanced.

[Josephine96]

Before you guys bash me about wanting rain.. I have only 1 reason I want the rains to continue..

It's keeping the temps. down. Instead of being in the low to mid 90's.. we're in the low to mid 80's

Could this be Arlene forming..? we'll see

[Anonymous]

Before you guys bash me about wanting rain.. I have only 1 reason I want the rains to continue..

It's keeping the temps. down. Instead of being in the low to mid 90's.. we're in the low to mid 80's

Could this be Arlene forming..? we'll see

I dunno which is worse in a warehouse enviroment--the rain and humid conditions in 80 degree weather-or sunny and dry and in the 90s. NO AC and NO ventillation whatsoever! I will put it this way, I sweat at work the worst in the morning before 8am--when it actually gets hot, I am fine--I HATE mugginess!

BTW Hope Im not sending you an extra few pallets of water and supplies this season from up here in Wally world DC6099. Last year there were 5am-10pm days. I love overtime but

[gatorcane]

pretty impressive convection...the upper level low is pulling away from it...could this be Arlene N of Puerto Rico sometime this week?

[gatorcane]

Current wind shear looks somewhat favorable for development:

[gatorcane]

The GFS brings this as a low north of Puerto Rico...at 144 Hours but the UKM, NOGAPs and CMC do not. Notice the broad area of low pressure that the UKM is forecasting in the NW Caribbean. We should watch this area too:

[gatorcane]

The GFS brings this as a low north of Puerto Rico...at 144 Hours but the UKM, NOGAPs and CMC do not. Notice the broad area of low pressure that the UKM is forecasting in the NW Caribbean. We should watch this area too:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2005060518&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2005060512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

[Anonymous]

After looking at 00z models, I say it is fish storm if it develops--GFS model continues to break down the High allowing the possible storm to escape--it is becoming in the midrange and apparently the Atlantic high is really going to break down and have to reorganize itself--allowing the possible A or B storm to go to sea. This is my initial answer (before even formation occurs which I think it will),

Link day 8 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_192s.gif

[HURAKAN]

CMC agrees with GFS and probable "Arlene" is NE of the Leeward Islands and a low pressure system is near Havana, Cuba, in 144 hours. Let see if the other computer models come into agreement in the next runs.

[Wnghs2007]

Whats even more interesting in the short Range is what the Nam is showing at 84 hours.

The Carribean low that the ECMWF has migrating into the Gulf as does the 18z run of the GFS...Though the GFS is a little Further to the North West in the disturbances inital stages.

Wait til this time tomorrow to have even better pronounced runs of the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM to see if there could be possible development here...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084s.gif