Looking at the forecast six hours in (00Z), it appears that it underdevelops the ridge.
At the surface, the model has the 1012 mb line going across Florida from (approx) Palm Beach to Tallahasee and entering Alabama at its southeast corner. 00Z obs have the 1012 line cutting across the southern part of Florida and going northwest into Mississippi/Louisana. The model has the 1016 mb line crossing the coast at northern SC. Obs show the 1016 line coming in south of Jacksonville and going entirely around (west of) South Carolina.
At 500 mb, the model has the 5880 m line entirely offshore. Obs have a 500 mb height of 5910 m at Charleston and 5880 at Jacksonville.
18Z GFS - SE LA/MS in 48 hours
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