OK where is TD 3's center?

#21 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:27 am

Air Force Met wrote:I think the center is now in teh gulf...sitting north of the yucatan...at about 21.3N / 88.4W. We'll ahve to see once we get some vis...but that is my hunch right now.

Thanks Air Force Met for your reply.

Greg · #22 Postby **Greg** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:33 am

Alright. BOC? The only thing I can think of is Blue Oyster Cult (Don't fear the reaper). Now I've got that stupid song in my head!

#23 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:35 am

http://www7300.nrlssc.navy.mil/altimetr ... om_sst.gif
It's a little off topic but I didn't want to start a new thread, just thought if the center is where AFMET( I agree) puts it, the SST's coolest in the GOM.

#24 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:36 am

Greg wrote:Alright. BOC? The only thing I can think of is Blue Oyster Cult (Don't fear the reaper). Now I've got that stupid song in my head!

BOC = Bay Of Campeche

HurryKane · #25 Postby **HurryKane** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:36 am

Greg wrote:Alright. BOC? The only thing I can think of is Blue Oyster Cult (Don't fear the reaper). Now I've got that stupid song in my head!

Bay of Campeche.

And it was clear that she couldn't go on...

Thunder44 · #26 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:37 am

I think AirForceMet is right. Looking at the latest visible images from the NASA site, you can see the low clouds heading from north to south just north of Yucatan. It's somewhere close to the Northern Yucatan coast.

#27 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:37 am

wxman57 wrote:My take is that it is now an open wave. I cannot find any center using surface obs or satellite. It got ripped apart by strong SSW wind aloft overnight.

I have to agree at this point, although I do think it will develop a little later today and be more NE than originally thought. Still think this will be a system to deal with, but more to the right of previous track.

Greg · #28 Postby **Greg** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:37 am

Thanks!

#29 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:41 am

skysummit wrote:This is where I say the center is. Not looking at reports, just watching sat loops. I also think it's still moving NW or NNW and those storms to the NE got blew away by the shear. That was throwing me off earlier, but I do believe it's going to be re-emerging over water and she's not done yet. Just my thoughts.

The problem with that placement for me is the low level cu sitting to the NE of your low moving south. :-)

Now...the way this thing is working...it may be an open wave and we're all wrong...there is no center. I think we have to get some recon or a ship...or a really clear shot of the low level field using vis images.

#30 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:43 am

Air Force Met wrote:Now...the way this thing is working...it may be an open wave and we're all wrong...there is no center. I think we have to get some recon or a ship...or a really clear shot of the low level field using vis images.

Ok, I see what you're talking about. Too bad they're not going out there till later. Maybe by then, it'll be a bit better organized.

HouTXmetro · #31 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:06 am

In agreement with AFM, it appears that 'Cindy' is moving just south of NW this AM and about to exit the NW coast. I'm just going by the VIS. She's winding up pretty good and if the convection gets going :eek:

#32 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:06 am

I changed my mind about the location of the center. With the latest visible (not the pic), you can see the lower clouds just the west of where I put my new "L" rotating inward. If this is the spot, it's pretty much under that blob of convection about to move off the northern Yucatan.

Any opinions?

HouTXmetro · #33 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:08 am

Hmmm, what makes you think that. I did see a pronounced circulation where you placed the original L.

Cape Verde · #34 Postby **Cape Verde** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:11 am

Please tell me that it's going to hit Texas. I tried frying an egg on the sidewalk this morning, but it exploded in a fireball and vaporized. :wink:

HouTXmetro · #35 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:11 am

HouTXmetro wrote:Hmmm, what makes you think that. I did see a pronounced circulation where you placed the original L. I can see the other feature also. Is the system elongated?

#36 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:13 am

HouTXmetro wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Hmmm, what makes you think that. I did see a pronounced circulation where you placed the original L. I can see the other feature also. Is the system elongated?

I think my first "L" was more of an upper feature. It looks like it's mostly cirrus there, but the second "L" actually looks near the surface and convection is firing around it. I think it's actually starting to strengthen and maybe even strengthen quick once it's completely offshore.

HouTXmetro · #37 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:13 am

Umm, if the new L north of the Yucatan is the center then it's definatly not moving NW but W or WNW. :eek:

#38 Postby **feederband** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:19 am

Cape Verde wrote:Please tell me that it's going to hit Texas. I tried frying an egg on the sidewalk this morning, but it exploded in a fireball and vaporized.

Sorry this one I don't think is going to be your drought buster... Try cooking the eggs at night it might not be as hot.... :lol:

Derek Ortt · #39 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:22 am

now that we have several visible shots, its clear that there ar eno idnciations of a circulation, or even a significant wind shift

the Islands wave has more of a circulation than 3 does

#40 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:23 am

Derek Ortt wrote:now that we have several visible shots, its clear that there ar eno idnciations of a circulation, or even a significant wind shift

the Islands wave has more of a circulation than 3 does

Are we all looking at the same visible?

OK where is TD 3's center?

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