Emily Advisorys

Josephine96 · #21 Postby **Josephine96** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:48 pm

Looks like "Emily" will have us in Florida keeping our eyes peeled yet again..

gkrangers · #22 Postby **gkrangers** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:48 pm

SHIP makes it a hurricane east of the lesser antilles by day 3. By day 4-5 it could be stronger than 73mph.

hurricanefloyd5 · #23 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:48 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

Swimdude · #24 Postby **Swimdude** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:49 pm

Hahaha something amusing... Look at this in the advisory:

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.

We have to wait THAT long?! I'm used to every two hours now!

#25 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:50 pm

oh man! I was just about to ingest 3 sleeping pills tonight to go into dreamland and now this. ugh mother nature is sooooo unforgiving.....

<RICKY>

#26 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:53 pm

Historic tracks in relation to where TD#5 is.

pcolaguy · #27 Postby **pcolaguy** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:54 pm

If that high builds in where the last one did, it will go north of Cuba skim South Florida or perhaps a direct hit around Miami, then out in the gulf again. So I guess I should start preparing for a hurricane in about 10 days LOL

#28 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:55 pm

Strike probabilities

#29 Postby **coriolis** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:55 pm

Is this the wave that came off africa a couple days ago?

#30 Postby **Canelaw99** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:56 pm

Yes coriolis

Pcola - hush! Maybe if we don't look at it, it'll leave us alone

#31 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:57 pm

coriolis wrote:Is this the wave that came off africa a couple days ago?

Yes ED.

Swimdude · #32 Postby **Swimdude** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:09 pm

Awww she's a cute little bugger right now!

#33 Postby **Canelaw99** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:11 pm

She looks like a big cotton ball in the ocean

#34 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:11 pm

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 10, 2005

conventional and microwave satellite images indicate the strong
tropical wave about 1280 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has
strengthened into Tropical Depression Five. The initial intensity
of 25 kt is based on a satellite intensity estimate of 25 kt from
both TAFB and SAB. Since the 00z satellite classifications...a
small burst of deep convection has developed near the well-defined
low-level center...which further supports at least 25-kt intensity.
The initial motion estimate is 270/10. The NHC model guidance is in
reasonable agreement on a general westward track through 24-36
hours...with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest after that.
The GFDL...GFS...NOGAPS...and medium BAM models take the cyclone
across the central to northern Lesser Antilles in 84 to 96 hours
toward a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge. By day 5...
the ridge between Bermuda and the Lesser Antilles is forecast to
build back in and possibly turn the cyclone on a more westward
track over or near Puerto Rico and the domincian Republic.
The depression...while well-defined at the surface and aloft...is
embedded within only a moderately moist environment as noted in
water vapor imagery. As such...occasional intrusions of dry air
will briefly weaken the convection near the center...which should
only allow for slow intensification to occur for the first 48 hours
or so. After that...the combination of weak vertical shear...near
29c SSTs...and an increasingly more moist environment should allow
for some modest intensification to occur. The official forecast is
close to the SHIPS model...but not nearly as robust as the GFDL
model...which brings the cyclone up to 112 kt in 120 hours or so.

Forecaster Stewart
Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 11/0300z 10.8n 42.9w 25 kt
12hr VT 11/1200z 11.0n 44.5w 30 kt
24hr VT 12/0000z 11.5n 46.7w 35 kt
36hr VT 12/1200z 12.1n 49.0w 40 kt
48hr VT 13/0000z 12.8n 51.7w 50 kt
72hr VT 14/0000z 14.5n 57.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 15/0000z 16.5n 63.5w 70 kt
120hr VT 16/0000z 19.5n 69.0w 75 kt

$$

gkrangers · #35 Postby **gkrangers** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:14 pm

Ridge forecasted to strengthen and build back westward....not good.

#36 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:38 pm

it's an absolute nightmare, here we go again FL

caribepr · #37 Postby **caribepr** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:41 pm

Cycloneye, does this mean I shouldn't get too prepared for my fishing date on Saturday? :roll:

sigh (here *we* go)

#38 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:44 pm

#39 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:45 pm

caribepr wrote:Cycloneye, does this mean I shouldn't get too prepared for my fishing date on Saturday? sigh (here *we* go)

Oh boy I am afraid no.

#40 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:56 pm

Luis, look at this map from the NHC three days out, look to the ridge to the north. This is not good for anyone living in the eastern seaboard, nor the northern Leeward Antilles and the Bahamas.

Emily Advisorys

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