Emily-likely a western GOM/Mexico Threat

[Agua]

I found this graphic to be, well, just stunning. While the focus of the graphic is to demonstrate the difference between number of major canes in "active" vs. "inactive" seasons, just check out the absolute paucity of major storms striking Texas:




With all that coastline along the Gulf, you'd *think* there'd be many, many more storms. Very, very odd.

[mvtrucking]

Lets hope so, I've waited 20 years for mother nature to show me her stuff once again. Too many times Florida has taken the beating, lets let the great state of Texas handle this one. The resolve of the people (thx GW for the verbage) in this state will allow for a quick rebound from the destruction sure to unfold should landfall be in our area, and as the nutjob that I am, I await our due penance with lawn chair, popcorn, and beer cooler ready on the south lawn.

cheers,
loon

(p.s. this is were the hate posts come along about how could I, why would I, and you should be thankful stuff....I know I know...but, I won't change, I enjoy seeing Mother Natures wrath and expect the same whenever she visits again, its inevitable to happen, I can not "wish" it into existance...so sorry)

Loon I may bring some cold ones and join y'all for a hurricane party.

[loon]

I believe I have spare lawn chairs...and always a cold one for guests....might even fire up the bbq....

cheers,
loon

[Agua]

Is there something with climatology about TX storms being early season storms and, thus shut out from the late August / Sept storms? That might help explain the lack of majors making landfall in TX.

[dwg71]

Once you start having fronts make it through Texas in late september, it's hard for storms to not turn back N to NE....

[texasheat]

True, i dont remember many storms named in the later alphabet. i remember allison alicia frances charles and claudette

[stormie_skies]

I found this graphic to be, well, just stunning. While the focus of the graphic is to demonstrate the difference between number of major canes in "active" vs. "inactive" seasons, just check out the absolute paucity of major storms striking Texas:


With all that coastline along the Gulf, you'd *think* there'd be many, many more storms. Very, very odd.

Wow.... The east Texas coast seems to have been more than generously spared for a long, looooong time.....

And here I thought I was the one who was scarin' them away!

[Galvestongirl]

boy loon....I see your setting yourself up here...lol, BTW can I join yall for the BBQ...I can bring some chicken and a chair[/quote]

[Roxy]

Loon, admit it...you are just in it for the hurricane party!

[Portastorm]

I believe I have spare lawn chairs...and always a cold one for guests....might even fire up the bbq....

cheers,
loon

Hey Loon ... .I'll bring the Shiner Bock and join ya. Been in Tejas since 1984 and never seen a major cane hit Texas, besides Bret in 1999 ... which killed a few cattle in Kenedy County and that was it.

[Anonymous]

Hurricane Party.... I will bring the potato salad

[Javlin]

Now we know where it's not going to hit TEJAS.You never get what you want Don't you know that.At least that's what my wifeee says.

[Portastorm]

Now we know where it's not going to hit TEJAS.You never get what you want Don't you know that.At least that's what my wifeee says.

Oh we're aware of it ... trust me ... we know.

[cajungal]

Just about every storm has missed or turned away from the Upper TX Coast. Eventually one of these storms will slam the Houston-Galveston areas. I will be watching Emily very carefully over the next week.

We have been just as lucky as you have been. We had not had anything bad since Andrew 13 years ago. That is the last time hurricane winds were felt in my parish (Terrebonne) New Orleans might of got close to hurricane force winds for Cindy. But, we were lucky. The winds did not even reach tropical storm force because we were on the weak side, the very western side of her. Even when we were threatned by Lili, we did not get much. All the bad stuff stayed to our west. Worse case scererio for us, is a major hurricane making landfall just west of us in Morgan City (Andrew). Or something going straight through Terrebonne Bay.

[zoeyann]

Well Terrebonne Parish has not been that lucky. Montegut flood for both Isidore and Lili. Maybe closer to Houma the winds were not that bad. But they did cause problems lower in the parish

[CaptinCrunch]

TEXAS Bring her on!!

[texasheat]

its all about the high. if it builds in west welcome to texas. if it builds south welcome to mexico. if it stays put welcome to mobile alabama. just my input

[BayouVenteux]

Just about every storm has missed or turned away from the Upper TX Coast. Eventually one of these storms will slam the Houston-Galveston areas. I will be watching Emily very carefully over the next week.

We have been just as lucky as you have been. We had not had anything bad since Andrew 13 years ago. That is the last time hurricane winds were felt in my parish (Terrebonne) New Orleans might of got close to hurricane force winds for Cindy. But, we were lucky. The winds did not even reach tropical storm force because we were on the weak side, the very western side of her. Even when we were threatned by Lili, we did not get much. All the bad stuff stayed to our west. Worse case scererio for us, is a major hurricane making landfall just west of us in Morgan City (Andrew). Or something going straight through Terrebonne Bay.

Ditto Cajungal, as we are about 40 miles NNE of Morgan City, a major hurricane running N or NW would do some significant damage here as well.

I know that the Gulf is obviously "open for business" this year, and to an unprecedented degree for July. And while we in S. La. could perhaps experience some tense moments in a month or two, I'm currently hopeful that our luck will once again hold, based on what I've seen in the current long range models and what's indicated by the teleconnections in the far east concerning the possibility of strong southeastern US ridging extending westward over our area in 6 to 10 days. That would mean that should Emily make it into the GoM, she stands a decent chance of remaining well to our south, possibly making landfall in the less populated areas of deep south Texas or northern Mexico.

Sure, things could change by this time next week, but that's how it appears to my novice, not an official forecast, eye at this point.

[cajungal]

Well Terrebonne Parish has not been that lucky. Montegut flood for both Isidore and Lili. Maybe closer to Houma the winds were not that bad. But they did cause problems lower in the parish

I agree. I am sorry. I live in northern Terrebonne Parish, just in north of Houma in itty bitty Schriever. Well, the northern part of parish fared very well.

[BayouVenteux]

Well Terrebonne Parish has not been that lucky. Montegut flood for both Isidore and Lili. Maybe closer to Houma the winds were not that bad. But they did cause problems lower in the parish

But Zoeyann, while it's true that in the Terrebonne/Lafourche region, the flooding was a problem during those events, and even during minimal TS Matthew last October, those conditions would absolutely pale in comparison to what we could witness as a result of a landfalling major hurricane in that area.