Emily BOMBING?!

[Sanibel]

I suggest the deeply intensifying and rounding CDO has something to do with it.

If anyone expects easy predictions with hurricanes they're in the wrong business...

[Mac]

That CDO is HUGE now. The question is, can it maintain it?

[stormie_skies]

INCREDIBLE! I let the pc sleep for a little while and look what happens....

Miss Em has certainly dug her heels in, hasn't she?



Thats an incredible explosion....God only knows what she will become now.....at this point, nothing can surprise me this season....

[rtd2]

Its not gonna impact the US, looks like its going to Mexico. Also, a Cat 5 isnt impossible. Dennis was certainly almost there.

Your are correct on the cat 5 ...remember so far this year we have seen some :INSANE" strengthning and it could happen...as far as the NON us call I disagree like in the last post I just made 7/10 people was starting to doubt thr NHC and thought it would go into SA and thats not going to happen so I wouldnt rule out Texas just yet!

Well, like any "typical" cane, won't she try to track poleward? And if that's the case, doesn't it just depend on how far south and west (and how strong) the ridge pushes in? Basically, won't Emmy just ride the periphery wherever the ridge stops? The further in, the further west and vice versa...

Yes and Now since Emmy's not commited suicide and ran aground in SA It will be important How for South and west the High Pressure is once Emmy gets Near the Yucatan! We've been through this several times where the models cant get a handle on the strength of the HP 3-5 days out!

[WaryEye]

Local Mets here in Ohio are forecasting that Emily will likely affect the United States. They are forecasting that she will come ashore in Texas.

[texasheat]

where in texas or LA in the question

[Hurricaneman]

Well find out next week

[texasheat]

easy for you to say. your in mass.

[jkt21787]

Local Mets here in Ohio are forecasting that Emily will likely affect the United States. They are forecasting that she will come ashore in Texas.

Local mets in Memphis say its not

I don't think either really matter though...

[MGC]

Cat 5 in July? Doubt it though Dennis came close. As long a Emily don't hit any shear or land and continues to intesify she has a good shot at major cane status. Hope it don't hit Cancun as I'm headed there on a cruise in November.......MGC

[Sanibel]

A track error right (poleward) is more likely than left. That would mean a clean shot of the Yucatan Channel and free reign in the Gulf...

[WaryEye]

They were vague.. implied that the longer that Dennis sits where he is ( and he has been sitting! Heavy rain and thunder on and off for 3 days now with more to come.. ) the more likely that he will be able to pull Emily in a more northern direction and then later on said that Emily will be a GOM event and looks to affect the United States with impact likely seen near Texas this time. I say too soon to say anything but.. if Dennis doesn't get out of here a little quicker, it could definitely be a major factor.

[feederband]

Well climatology speaking.........aaaahh never mind ....

[texasheat]

i also think she will make it north of the yucatan. if the recon have her straight at jamica wouldnt that be her course?

[Hurricaneman]

This is going anywhere between Tampico to Houston

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[Derek Ortt]

its not bombing. Latest recon shows a slightly higher pressure and sats show what looks to be a dry intrusion, though the structure continues to improve

[Sanibel]

More likely, the longer Dennis sits where he is, the more the High is squeezed in west underneath him...

[Brent]

A dropsonde measured 102kt winds at approximately 500 feet off the surface. This was lowered to 80kt at the surface. Thats what the intensity is based off of.

Yeah, I caught that -- but 30 mph and 11 mb in two hours? I'm seriously wondering if they just plain made a mistake somewhere. Or if they've been making them all day. There seems to be no consistency from one round to the next. Has Emily got everyone fooled?

At 8PM they had no obs, no recon, no nothing to go off of. They are blind obs wise out there. You have to look at it more like an 11mb drop since the last recon...

...which left about 7 hours before this one got there.

[patsmsg]

It seems highly unlikely that this or any other hurricane (when taken individually) is going to reach Cat 5.

I think people forget that a cat 5 hurricane is really rare. I realize this is an unusual year, and the water is warmer than normal, but every time a storm forms in warm water people start yelling cat 5. It takes a special set of circumstances for that to happen, so let's just wait and see, folks.

This morning Emily was all but written off by many.

That said, I'll get on board and agree that this just may be a major hurricane before all is over. (Have to hedge my bets, you know.)

[beam182]

Looks like Mexico is going to catch this one, unless it takes the northern third of the track. If that happens, Galvestion/Houston's luck might run out. Of course, it's too early to tell, but still...