Trough building over Texas

[hicksta]

Anyone north of corpus can breath easier and anyone in galveston,houston area are not going to get Emily. Its not going to happen. NHC has ridge under control, if its weaker it will go to the northern edge of cone if its stronger it will go to the southern edge.

This is not a hard storm for them to forcast. Trust the cone..

Tell that to the people where ivan struck... He wasnt even in the come when they had it aimed at central fl

[dwg71]

ivan's landfall was in the cone 72 hours out...

[Stormcenter]

Looking at the Satellite. Looks right on course. The high seems like it will win out. At Least Texas is getting some rain.

Hmmmmmm I think it will be very close. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Use water Vapor it's is much more accurate for these images

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I did, thanks! I still with stick to what I said though. It will be close.

[Ivanhater]

that one is true hicksta, but pcola was in the cone with plenty of time to get ready

[hicksta]

True but things can change

[deltadog03]

ivan's landfall was in the cone 72 hours out...

ok, i know you think you know everything but, if you have really payed ATTN!! to the NHC discussion's over the past couple of days, you can see there is increasingly concerns that the global models are not handling the trof's very well...WE will see...NOTHING is set in stone

[hicksta]

ivan's landfall was in the cone 72 hours out...

ok, i know you think you know everything but, if you have really payed ATTN!! to the NHC discussion's over the past couple of days, you can see there is increasingly concerns that the global models are not handling the trof's very well...WE will see...NOTHING is set in stone

Correct

[dwg71]

ive paid very close attention, they are struggling only with landfall point, not direction. It'll be in the cone...

Trust them...

[Rainband]

ivan's landfall was in the cone 72 hours out...

ok, i know you think you know everything but, if you have really payed ATTN!! to the NHC discussion's over the past couple of days, you can see there is increasingly concerns that the global models are not handling the trof's very well...WE will see...NOTHING is set in stone

calm down. You really want his cane dont ya.

[Ivanhater]

i bet you there are people in mexico saying this kind of stuff, "looks to me like the ridge is building pretty fast and looks stronger than what the nhc is saying, looks like emily is turning more west now"....

[deltadog03]

i am just trying to state my op...thats all....and its not just my op...its backed by the NHC...we will see...thats all

[Swimdude]

Yes, I honestly don't believe this is a difficult storm to predict, landfall-wise. Strength? Obviously. Look how many times the NHS has been incorrect with Emily. However, the path has been fairly perfect, and definately in the cone. I expect landfall just south of Brownsville.

[stormie_skies]

Anyone north of corpus can breath easier and anyone in galveston,houston area are not going to get Emily. Its not going to happen. NHC has ridge under control, if its weaker it will go to the northern edge of cone if its stronger it will go to the southern edge.

You sound as if you think the cone is like a bowling lane with bumpers!

I'll parrot Dr. Frank here ..... the cone represents a 70% chance of the storm crossing through that area - not a 100% chance. There is still a 30% chance that the storm will deviate from that cone during any given forecast period - and each deviation will have an effect on the final landfall location. I'm not saying that this storm will do that - but its silly to pretend like it isnt possible, especially considering that the NHC is readily admitting in its discussions that they are not sure how much of a northerly component this weakness will create with this system.

Looking at the Satellite. Looks right on course. The high seems like it will win out. At Least Texas is getting some rain.

Just because she is right on course right now does not mean that it will always be that way. I'm not sure what you are basing your "high winning out" statement on, considering the shortwave trough that is expected to create the weakness that the NHC is concerned about isn't even here yet.... you cant say you won the game before all the players are on the field.....

For the record, I think there is a very good chance that this storm will stay on course toward the TX/MX border. But it bothers me that some on here seem to want to write the people off who are bringing up these upper air steering current discrepencies as "people I disagree with," when the NHC admits uncertainty in these areas and Dr. Frank still says they need to be watched closely....the models don't always forecast these ridges accurately, and there is nothing wrong with watching, speculating, and being prepared for the worst IMO....

[Steve]

Thing about the trof is that it's not really pushing any farther eastward. The trof up in the central US is coming through, but it's transient.

Steve

[storm54]

I've got to agree, in the last discussion there was definitely some concern that the trough may have more of an effect on Emily than first thought.While the models are probably right, you still have to keep in mind that things may change bringing Emily futher up the coast than originally thought. Thats just good common sense to keep an eye on Emily till a certain path is established.

[deltadog03]

Well i hate to DISAGREE with ya...NHC and models were pretty sure what was going to happen after the YUC, then all of the sudden 3 days ago, that ridge was in question...but, i don't really know...I do know this though, it has been right of the path for atleast a day and a half...