Special Statement on Tropical Storm Franklin

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BensonTCwatcher
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#21 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:26 pm

The convection looks pretty good for a small TS. Also the core of storm is well formed with tight circulation. I'd say we'll be looking at a TS for another 24 hrs though
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#22 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:30 pm

BensonTCwatcher wrote:The convection looks pretty good for a small TS. Also the core of storm is well formed with tight circulation. I'd say we'll be looking at a TS for another 24 hrs though


Uh... it's a TS now. Official at 8pm. :lol:
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#23 Postby curtinnc » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:32 pm

What a roller coaster of a year.... I'm not gonna get a drop of sleep in Aug and Sept... and still taste Hugo... an Oct storm... what a year this is looking to be!
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#24 Postby miamistorm » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:34 pm

Why is it a special advisory? They would just update the public at 8pm anyway...will this special advisory have a new discussion? track?
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#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:36 pm

miamistorm wrote:Why is it a special advisory? They would just update the public at 8pm anyway...will this special advisory have a new discussion? track?


Yes it will have a discussion.
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#26 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:36 pm

miamistorm wrote:Why is it a special advisory? They would just update the public at 8pm anyway...will this special advisory have a new discussion? track?


Special Advisory means discussion and track as well. Intermediate Advisory would be the normal just a public advisory.
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#27 Postby george_r_1961 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:37 pm

BonesXL wrote:This systems tend to strenghten and get better organized during the night...there is actually a scientific reason for this...but I forget. :D


The atmosphere over the tropical waters is more unstable at nite because the air cools and the water doesnt. This is why convection, especially in weak systems, flares at night,
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#28 Postby seaswing » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:39 pm

I have a feeling because of the close proximity, they are going to update as necessary.... remember, this has never happened so early, in our lifetime. We have already seen and might continue to see a lot of 'firsts' this season. Because it has strengthened so quickly, everyone should keep a watchful eye for the next 5 days or less....
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#29 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:43 pm

I'll update my stats in the Tropical Analysts' Forum later tonight, but here's some quick facts...

Over the past 30 years, the sixth tropical storm, on average, formed on Sep 12. Over the past 154 years, make that Sep 19.

The ten earliest years for the sixth tropical storm to form...

2005 ... 21 July
1936 ... 04 Aug
1995 ... 08 Aug
1993 ... 12 Aug
1990 ... 13 Aug
1887 ... 14 Aug
1893 ... 15 Aug
1886 ... 15 Aug
1959 ... 18 Aug
1909 ... 20 Aug
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#30 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:45 pm

senorpepr wrote:I'll update my stats in the Tropical Analysts' Forum later tonight, but here's some quick facts...

Over the past 30 years, the sixth tropical storm, on average, formed on Sep 12. Over the past 154 years, make that Sep 19.

The ten earliest years for the sixth tropical storm to form...

2005 ... 21 July
1936 ... 04 Aug
1995 ... 08 Aug
1993 ... 12 Aug
1990 ... 13 Aug
1887 ... 14 Aug
1893 ... 15 Aug
1886 ... 15 Aug
1959 ... 18 Aug
1909 ... 20 Aug


Another record for the 2005 season.How many more records this season will have?
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#31 Postby Wacahootaman » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:46 pm

Yeah, but this forcast track has got to be the wierdest ever :ggreen:

Image
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#32 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:48 pm

Wacahootaman wrote:Yeah, but this forcast track has got to be the wierdest ever :ggreen:

Image


thats a true spaghetti model. this would be a great system to fire up that futures market deal those guys at UM have cooking, let everyone put there money where their mouth is
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#33 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:48 pm

Brent wrote:
BensonTCwatcher wrote:The convection looks pretty good for a small TS. Also the core of storm is well formed with tight circulation. I'd say we'll be looking at a TS for another 24 hrs though


Uh... it's a TS now. Official at 8pm. :lol:


Yes I mean it will STAY a TS for that long at least or more likely more even :wink:
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#34 Postby Hyperstorm » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:48 pm

senorpepr wrote:I'll update my stats in the Tropical Analysts' Forum later tonight, but here's some quick facts...

Over the past 30 years, the sixth tropical storm, on average, formed on Sep 12. Over the past 154 years, make that Sep 19.

The ten earliest years for the sixth tropical storm to form...

2005 ... 21 July
1936 ... 04 Aug
1995 ... 08 Aug
1993 ... 12 Aug
1990 ... 13 Aug
1887 ... 14 Aug
1893 ... 15 Aug
1886 ... 15 Aug
1959 ... 18 Aug
1909 ... 20 Aug


Senorpepr, where did you leave 1933? That year had an early start with the sixth tropical storm forming in mid-August...
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HurricaneQueen
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#35 Postby HurricaneQueen » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:57 pm

Wacahootaman:


Thanks for the belly laugh. I needed that. I might just make that my wallpaper!!! I sort of sums up the season overall.

Lynn
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#36 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:05 pm

Rainband wrote:Ok. We have been watching these things for years. Is this not one of the most pathetic looking sheared storms??? at this point or am I missing something here??


It's not sheared...not yet at least. IT just has little convection with it. Now...the blowoff from the wave in the Caribbean is streaming towards him and that could cause a problem in the next 12 hours or so.
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#37 Postby SeaBrz_FL » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:11 pm

Of course we don't know for sure what Franklin will do, but since he is so much closer to the east coast (and over more land) than Jeanne was when she looped, does that reduce his opportunities to greatly increase in intensity?

(Please tell me "yes")

Thanks for feedback,
SB
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#38 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:16 pm

I am curious as to what the next model runs will show. I don't understand the specifics, but I just don't see a loop happening based on the high blocking it. It seems more likely ( loops are rare) that we'll see a slowing and westward turn or a recurve Yes?
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#39 Postby Steve H. » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:57 pm

Franklin may not make it through the night. Circulation is falling apart and the system is drying up. W. Caribbean system's outflow is disrupting him and robbing energy. NHC will have to declassify him at 11pm unless he really shows some muscle....I doubt it. Good riddens Frankie!!!!
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#40 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:27 pm

System in the sw carribbean seems to be backing off. reds on frankie appearing game on :P
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