TS Franklin Advisories

[wxwatcher91]

Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 6


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 22, 2005


...Franklin continues to move northward away from the Bahamas...

at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of the Bahamas has discontinued
all Tropical Storm Warning for the Bahamas.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm
Franklin was located near latitude 27.8 north... longitude 76.7
west or about 100 miles... 160 km... north-northeast of Great
Abaco Island.

Franklin is moving toward the north near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and
this general motion is forecast to continue tonight...with a
gradual turn toward the northeast expected on Saturday. On this
track...Franklin will continue to move away from the northwestern
Bahamas and the Florida East Coast. However...Franklin is a small
tropical storm...so some erratic motion will be possible at times.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles
... 85 km...mainly east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

Franklin may produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches
over the northernmost Bahamas during the next 12 hours or so.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...27.8 N... 76.7 W. Movement
toward...north near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Stewart


$$

[wxwatcher91]

no intermediate advisory!!!

[Brent]

no intermediate advisory!!!

Warnings were discontinued.

[wxwatcher91]

I wonder what recon will find

[wxwatcher91]

[/url]

[cycloneye]

177
WTNT21 KNHC 222028
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
2100Z FRI JUL 22 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 76.7W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 76.7W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 76.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.9N 76.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 35NE 45SE 15SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.0N 75.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.9N 73.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.8N 67.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 34.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 76.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Gfdl did pretty good on Emily...Take a look at the latest run has it doing. 109 knots over the north Atlatnic. I was checking buoy data last night. In the 80 degree line go's to 38 north. So this is not out of the quastion.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

This is going out to sea away from the US as last track shows.

[Ivanhater]

frankie is boring!!

[Lowpressure]

frankie is boring!!

Go to the dust devil footage thread!

[cycloneye]

760
WTNT41 KNHC 222058
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED UP THE EAST SIDE AND INTO THE CENTER...WHICH HAS
ERODED THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE INNER CORE. BANDING FEATURES
HAVE ALSO COME AND GONE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND IN THE MELBOURNE RADAR DARA. AROUND 1532Z...AIR FORCE RECON
FOUND 53 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH
EQUALS A 42-43 KT SURFACE WIND...WHILE THE ONBOARD METEOROLOGIST
AGAIN ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 55-60 IN THE SAME AREA. HOWEVER...
THAT CONVECTIVE BAND HAS SINCE DISAPPEARED DUE TO THE DRY AIR...SO
THOSE SURFACE WINDS WERE LIKELY ENHANCED BY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. AS
SUCH...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 45 KT...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE PRESSURE HAS NOT FALLEN BELOW 1007 MB...AND THE CYCLONE
HAS A RAGGED LOOKING APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/08 KT. RECON AND RADAR POSITION ESTIMATES
INDICATE FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT A STEADY 8 KT OR SO
SINCE ABOUT 14Z. ACCORDING TO THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE NHC
MODELS...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN AND ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SPECIAL 18Z
UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND
SHOULD BE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. IF THE
SHORTWAVE IS STRONG ENOUGH...THEN IT MAY ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN...AND CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AND MOVE
IT AWAY FROM THE U.S. HOWEVER...THE GFS... UKMET...AND THE CANADIAN
MODELS NOW ONLY TAKE FRANKLIN AS FAR NORTH AS 30N LATITUDE IN 36-48
HOURS...AND THEN LEAVE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE...IT WOULD MEAN THAT FRANKLIN WOULD
CEASE TO EXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THOSE MODELS ALSO MOVE THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 72
HOURS...MUCH LIKE THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE SHEAR ACROSS FRANKLIN HAS INCREASED FROM THE WEST AGAIN DUE TO
THE OUTFLOW FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
YUCATAN DISTURBANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES FRANKLIN IS
GETTING PINCHED FROM THE EAST BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SLOWER THAN NORMAL INTENSIFICATION
FORECASTS AS PER THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. THE GFDL BRINGS
FRANKLIN UP TO 89 IN 48 HOURS...BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE...
ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING WESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM AT THAT TIME.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 27.8N 76.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 28.9N 76.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 30.0N 75.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 30.9N 73.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 31.5N 72.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 32.8N 67.6W 60 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 34.0N 63.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W 60 KT

[Brent]

Well... I'm bored with Franklin.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If your bored with frankie look down near 20.5/88.5. That system is looking real good. In should be over the BOC by tomarrow morning.

All the Globals
Gfs/Gfdl/Nogap/Cmc/ all form it into something. Then make landfall around 54 to 60 hours. Worth watching.

Also don't take your eye off frankie yet. It might bomb while its moving northeastward then eastward. Reason for that it will be moving away from the over all shear.

[Thunder44]

Well... I'm bored with Franklin.

Why because you think it's going out to sea? The discussion still leaves open the option that he could loop back around. In fact, it does so even more than previous discussion.

[Ivanhater]

i dont know, it seems less likely it will loop, to me it sounded like they are more certain it wont in this package

[JamesFromMaine2]

if I had to bet on Frinklin I would bet he doesn't go out to sea! Based on every thing I have seen with the NHC about this storm shows me they are unsure about what hes doing. And I have no clue what storm they were seeing in the 5pm est report but from what I can see it sure wasn't frinklin! Frinklin has a clear center according to wv and infrared!

[Ivanhater]

and at the end of the track they have it going more north, they seem less confused now

[Windy]

Hey, y'all should be happy. This pumps up the storm count to record levels without impacting any land. Fishes are a good thing, especially in a season like this!

[Ivanhater]

Hey, y'all should be happy. This pumps up the storm count to record levels without impacting any land. Fishes are a good thing, especially in a season like this!

yes, good for people, tracking wise not so much

[cycloneye]

For those who were expecting the 8 PM advisorie from now because there are no more warnings for the Bahamas the advisories will be issued every 6 hours.The 3 hour advisories timeframe may return if it gets close to Bermuda.