My thoughts on wave(s)

mike18xx · #21 Postby **mike18xx** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:57 am

(double-post)

mike18xx · #22 Postby **mike18xx** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:58 am

Derek Ortt wrote:the SAL only made a 1 day cameo appearance with Emily when the system briefly looked wavy east of the islands. The dry air is only one aspect of the SAL. The more destructive aspect for developing systems is the low-level easterly wind surge that causes the LLC to open up into a wave.

Yup. E.g., Iris.

In the major hurricanes, its the dry air that causes the problems

Air out of the Sahara isn't any drier than air falling from 40,000 ft out of the top of the mid-Atlantic high -- once they hit the surface, they should moisten up at exactly the same rate, given the same ocean.

IMO, a SAL unaccompanied by an undercutting surge just provides a big, fat load of condensation-nuclei.

#23 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 8:52 am

wow the wave certainly looks dead this morning.

<RICKY>

wxmann_91 · #24 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:02 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:wow the wave certainly looks dead this morning.

<RICKY>

Yeah, but the wave behind it near the CV Islands looks pretty healthy. Although I think because of its high latitude if it develops it'll be nothing more than a fish.

wxwatcher91 · #25 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:03 pm

dwg71 · #26 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:08 pm

Most waves dont make it. Some do, but the odds are that they dont. Howm many "monster wave coming of Africa" threads have been posted here in the past, only to see them not develop.

Let them get out over open water and see if anything develops. There wont be 3 or 4 named systems in the next week, I'll take that bet...

wxwatcher91 · #27 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:09 pm

I'd say each one is about 36 hours behind the one ahead... invest on #1 should come out tomorrow and then #2 Wednesday, #3 Thursday, and then #4 by Saturday... #1 could become a depression by late tomorrow or Wednesday, tropical storm by Wednesday, and hurricane possibly Friday or Saturday... this is probably jumping the gun considering the TWO hasnt even mentioned it yet... but we'll see

wxwatcher91 · #28 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:11 pm

dwg71 wrote:Most waves dont make it. Some do, but the odds are that they dont. Howm many "monster wave coming of Africa" threads have been posted here in the past, only to see them not develop.

Let them get out over open water and see if anything develops. There wont be 3 or 4 named systems in the next week, I'll take that bet...

I'm just working on time right now and SUPPOSING they develop... strength-wise I'm only focusing on #1 which is looking pretty good you have to admit...

gkrangers · #29 Postby **gkrangers** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:12 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:I'd say each one is about 36 hours behind the one ahead... invest on #1 should come out tomorrow and then #2 Wednesday, #3 Thursday, and then #4 by Saturday... #1 could become a depression by late tomorrow or Wednesday, tropical storm by Wednesday, and hurricane possibly Friday or Saturday... this is probably jumping the gun considering the TWO hasnt even mentioned it yet... but we'll see

Can't speculate on the waves until they spend atleast a day or two over open water. Simple as that..

wxmann_91 · #30 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:15 pm

gkrangers wrote:Can't speculate on the waves until they spend atleast a day or two over open water. Simple as that..

Yep. For some reason every time a wave looks good it poofs, and when nobody pays attention to the next wave it develops into a monster hurricane. :roll:

dwg71 · #31 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:41 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:I'd say each one is about 36 hours behind the one ahead... invest on #1 should come out tomorrow and then #2 Wednesday, #3 Thursday, and then #4 by Saturday... #1 could become a depression by late tomorrow or Wednesday, tropical storm by Wednesday, and hurricane possibly Friday or Saturday... this is probably jumping the gun considering the TWO hasnt even mentioned it yet... but we'll see

Not going to happen anything like that...

Hurricaneman · #32 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:43 pm

Maybe 2 of them but not all

#33 Postby **BigA** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:20 pm

I agree basically. The conditions over Africa are much different from what they are in the open ocean. Still, its a little interesting to see such a wave train.

As for the one thats been over water for about 18 hours- it looks like its basically kept its form, convection even firing a bit in the last image around 1830-1915. Wouldn't be surprised to see an invest on it tomorrow if it doesn't fall apart.

Behind that, who knows

DAVE440 · #34 Postby **DAVE440** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 4:58 pm

4 looks healthy!!

3 a bit less organized but still nice cluster.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html

#35 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 6:41 pm

I dont really like to speculate so until something actually does develop, my lips are sealed.

<RICKY>

HurriCat · #36 Postby **HurriCat** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 7:22 pm

dwg71 wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:I'd say each one is about 36 hours behind the one ahead... invest on #1 should come out tomorrow and then #2 Wednesday, #3 Thursday, and then #4 by Saturday... #1 could become a depression by late tomorrow or Wednesday, tropical storm by Wednesday, and hurricane possibly Friday or Saturday... this is probably jumping the gun considering the TWO hasnt even mentioned it yet... but we'll see

Not going to happen anything like that...

Uh, so what will happen? (We really need a emoticon w. smiley trying like heck to touch own chin w. front teeth - the classic "Bucky Beaver" face), for now, this one will have to do: :roll:

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