here's my thoughts...
8/5 11am: 35mph
8/5 5pm: 35mph
8/5 11pm: 40mph
8/6 5am: 40mph
8/6 11am: 45mph
8/6 5pm: 50mph
8/6 11pm: 60mph
8/7 5am: 65mph
8/7 11am: 65mph
8/7 5pm: 70mph
8/7 11pm: 80mph
Easterly Shear?
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wxwatcher91
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WindRunner
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wxwatcher91 wrote:here's my thoughts...
8/5 11am: 35mph
8/5 5pm: 35mph
8/5 11pm: 40mph
8/6 5am: 40mph
8/6 11am: 45mph
8/6 5pm: 50mph
8/6 11pm: 60mph
8/7 5am: 65mph
8/7 11am: 65mph
8/7 5pm: 70mph
8/7 11pm: 80mph
I think that's too fast initially, the 40mph won't be unitl around 11am 8/6, and maybe 60mph by end of window. The LLC is very exposed with convection mainly to the south. They won't push it over the 30mph until it organizes a little more.
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wxwatcher91
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- Location: Keene, NH
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yeah that's true... I do believe #9 will be a hurricane within 72 hours though...
the thing I'm wondering about most right now is the area of strong shear east and north of the Lesser Antilles. it looks like the area of strongest shear has moved south into the Caribbean however 20kt shear basically covers the entire central Atlantic... since this IS well ahead of TD 9 I'm guessing it will either dissipate or move south before #9 reaches the area... any thoughts?
latest shear image:
the thing I'm wondering about most right now is the area of strong shear east and north of the Lesser Antilles. it looks like the area of strongest shear has moved south into the Caribbean however 20kt shear basically covers the entire central Atlantic... since this IS well ahead of TD 9 I'm guessing it will either dissipate or move south before #9 reaches the area... any thoughts?
latest shear image:
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