Biggest suprise hurricanes

[Derecho]

Andrew was another even bigger one because it wasn't supposed to do anything

According to who?

[EDR1222]

It has been talked about on the forum before. But Hurricane Irene in 1999 was a surprise, because everyone along the east central Florida coast went to sleep without a thought there would be 50-70 mph wind gusts the following morning. At first they thought it was going to move up the west coast of Florida, then they said it might cut across and go out to sea. Instead it moved across the state to around Palm Beach then ran parrellel up the east coast. It didn't do widespread damage, but it knocked down trees and cut power to many areas and there were really no warnings in place until it was almost on top of us.

[Derecho]

and there were really no warnings in place until it was almost on top of us.

That's false.

The basic problem was the idea that had taken hold with the public that tropical storms were an irrelevant joke and that TS warnings were something to ignore.

[caribepr]

does Lennys eastward track thru the Caribbean Sea count?

Lenny counts for me, and was the first to come to mind, even though Jose had a VERY fast wind up. This is from a web site I used to have back in '99
when I lived on a sailboat in St. Thomas (USVI)

November 15th - Hurricane Lenny P.S.

This has got to be a joke...but apparently not. After being away in the BVI's for two days helping a friend show off his charter boats, Tim and I walked into Bottoms Up for dinner to be greeted by Michelle behind the bar. Not with Hey, how did the weekend go? but rather, There's a storm coming! Really, I'm not kidding, it will be a hurricane by tonight, and it's headed east. East? For a couple of seconds it didn't even make sense that we needed to be concerned, hurricanes don't come out of the east...except when they do...like Lenny.

This morning, five boats have already moved out of False Entrance to the mangroves. Everyone is going about taking care of business very, very quietly. A call on my machine from a friend on St. Croix invited us over for the storm and to just stay until Thanksgiving, and there is not much more tempting than to just say, screw it, let's run away and stay in a nice apartment for awhile...but we can't.

It's time to pack up the office again. We've ordered new anchor lines as Jose showed us the old ones are shot...it's going to be a busy day. Lenny, Lenny, why didn't you just stop at the gas station and ask directions???

[vbhoutex]

Allison was definitely a big surprise to Houstonians!!! I was wondering until I saw WXwatcher91's post if anyone was gonna mention it.

[beachbum_al]

I have to say Ivan was a big surprise for me last year. We were expecting a hit to the west of us and putting the Eastern Shore on the NE side of the storm which would had been very traumatic for the area. At the last hours before the storm made landfall it jogged just a little to the east and the eye went in around the Gulf Shores area which put us on the West side of the Eye. Actually I remember walking outside during the eye in Daphne. It was an eerie feeling. Especially when the winds started to change direction. We ran back inside quickly.

[dgparent]

Biggest surprise was the Carolina Hurricanes run for the Stanley Cup in 2002 , no one saw it coming

[jdray]

Oldie but goodie, especially for my area.

Hurricane Dora, 1964.

Was forecasted (by most, George Winterling forecasted correctly) to recurve north/ne. Was 22N @ 60W. Hit 27N @ 66W.

Then did the unthinkable (at least with our limited weather history/knowledge). It went almost due west from there. (barely North of west except for a few wobbles)

Hit St. Augustine as a weakening Cat 3. Although officially a Cat 2 at landfall, it had winds estimated @ 125MPH at Anatasia Island
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1964/dora/prelim05.gif

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1964/dora/prelim03.gif

[jasons2k]

Seems like Galveston/Houston is jinxed...

Galveston 1900 - over 6,000 Dead, worst natural disaster in US History, read book Isaac's Storm
Galveston '43 - Surprise storm cited above
Alicia '83 - people don't realize how quickly this went from "nothing" to "something"
Allison '01 - same about Alicia could be said

These were surprises, but I think Keys '35 may take the cake.

Also the Indianola Hurricanes should be included. Once the largest seaport on the TX coast, twin hurricanes wiped the town OFF THE MAP and the county seat was relocated to Port Lavaca. They had no idea a hurricane was coming until is was already there.

[Jim Cantore]

The Labor day hurricane is defanatly the biggest suprise hurricane of all time and it's the definition of rapid deepening

No other storm EVER exploded in strength like it did

Too bad there wasn't a visible loop that would be VERY intresting

[HurricaneGirl]

I would have to think the 1900 Galveston Hurricane, because it killed the most people.

[KeyLargoDave]

When you look at the intensification of the Labor Day Hurricane (Florida Keys 1935)--and how close it was to Florida landfall when it exploded, it's breathtaking. Sunday morning it wasn't yet a hurricane (just under 75mph). Monday night it was ripping people's skin off, a Category 5 catastrophe.

Sunday, Sept. 1, 8 a.m.: 74.4 mph sustained winds; location 23.7, 77.3
Monday, Sept. 2, 8 p.m.: 161 mph sustained winds, landfall at 24.5, 80.1

It went from just under hurricane strength to Cat 5 across a distance of only 185 miles, 20 miles less than the distance from Miami to Tampa.

Only the day before it hit, it was another tropical storm, people went ahead with their Labor Day picnic plans. They had hurricane shelters, they were ready for a storm. But where it made landfall in the Upper Keys, the winds blew sand so hard it filled the air with sparks, one survivor said. People caught outside were sandblasted to death.

Galveston was a terrible tragedy too because they knew it was coming but were misled by a weatherman who was certain the island couldn't be flooded, and so many people were drowned.

[Jim Cantore]

Andros island had minor tree damage from that storm

The keys where obliterated

how far apart are Andros and the keys not even 250 miles?

Estimates say this storm was smaller then andrew

[SouthernWx]

I'll speak to surprise in the form of limited warning. Of course the year was 1969 and technology was NO WHERE near where it is now - so the reasons are obvious. Prior to Camille's landfall, the coast had only about 12 actual hours to react. Because I was quite a bit younger then ( ), I'm not sure what the factors were, but to this day, shrimp boat and charter boat captains speak of that limited warning on a regular basis - even 36 years later.

Whether Camille "bombed" in the few hours just prior to landfall might be better explained by a more knowledgeable poster. Any takers?

No, Camille was a major hurricane even as it crossed western Cuba....and had already bombed to 908 mb by the first recon aircraft penetration around noon on August 16th. Even in pre-TWC/ internet days, a sub-940 mb hurricane in the SE GOM should have gotten everyone's attention...

The reason why it didn't? All the available synoptic and model data progged landfall along the Florida panhandle....maybe Pensacola or Fort Walton Beach...perhaps as far east as Apalachee Bay. No objective data gave forecasters reason to believe Camille would continue NNW until landfall. The western edge of the subtropical ridge was oriented from eastern North Carolina to central Cuba so a northerly track was expected once Camille reached the GOM.

That's why initial hurricane warnings were posted from Fort Walton to St Marks. Even when recon and satellite indicated Camille had explosively deepened and jogged farther west than forecast (on August 16th), forecasters at NHC still expected a northward turn....and only edged the hurricane warning area begrudgingly westward...first to Pensacola then Biloxi, then finally to Grand Isle and New Orleans early on August 17th.

In retrospect, even that final desperate hurricane warning by NHC was still not far enough west (IMO should have been AT LEAST to Morgan City). I shudder to think "what if" Camille had moved only slightly west of track as it approached the Mouth of the Mississippi....passed just west of Burrwood, Venice, and Port Sulphur...then inland directly over the city of New Orleans, with IMO 90%+ of the metro area population unprepared for the catastrophic wind and storm surge which would have resulted.

I know Camille was a terrible hurricane disaster....but to be totally honest, it only caused a fraction of the death and destruction that it could have. IMO if landfall had occurred 50 miles farther west, the death toll would have reached 25,000+....and possibly ended greater New Orleans as a major U.S. city/ metro area.

PW

[HurricaneBill]

Andros island had minor tree damage from that storm

The keys where obliterated

how far apart are Andros and the keys not even 250 miles?

Estimates say this storm was smaller then andrew

Key West was pretty much unscathed from the 1935 hurricane.

Hey, would the 1935 Yankee Hurricane count as a surprise? It formed north of Bermuda and took an odd southward track, even moving due south at times. It landfalled on Florida as a Cat 1.

[mahicks]

Earl?

Everyone thougt was a TS or TD...and BAM, it was a hurricane....I bet the ugliest hurricane in history, but still, a hurricane

[Jim Cantore]

Earl was one ugly storm wasn't he

That southward moving storm would be a suprise to me considering how unusual that is in the nothern hemisphere

[SouthernWx]

To those who keep mentioning the 1935 Labor Day hurricane as a "surprise"....almost all landfalling hurricanes at that time were "surprises"...

If you want to know the biggest surprise hurricane of the 1930's...it wasn't the Labor Day hurricane. Try the September 1938 "Long Island Express"....a large and very powerful hurricane known to be SSE and SE of Cape Hatteras heading rapidly north....but no hurricane warning was ever issued for any portion of the northeast U.S.; not for Long Island or any other impacted area.

Weather forecasters at the New York City and Washington WBO's were relying on weather data primitive by today's standards. They had no satellite, no radar, no model data, and limited ship reports...and "assumed" this powerful hurricane would continue it's recurvature and pass east of the United States east coast....perhaps brushing Nantucket and Cape Cod with gale force winds.
(one must also remember...before 1938, the last major hurricane to strike the northeast occurred in 1869....some seven decades prior).

One young (and apparently very wise) forecaster at NYC tried in vain to convince his superiors that the very unusual synoptic pattern might "suck" the accelerating hurricane directly northward and across Long Island/ Connecticut/ Rhode Island, but his theory was unfortunately discounted/ dismissed.....and hundreds died as a result.

PW

[KeyLargoDave]

To those who keep mentioning the 1935 Labor Day hurricane as a "surprise"....almost all landfalling hurricanes at that time were "surprises"...

I don't know, I don't believe landfalling hurricanes were almost all surprises before satellites and the Weather Channel. We do have all those historical tracks and pressure readings; the data was being collected. The telegraph and radio and telephone existed. Do you mean because track forecasting was primitive?

The Coast Guard flew over the Keys and dropped paper storm warning messages to individual boaters and groups of picnickers on Labor Day, so <i>somebody</i> knew it was coming. I have to think the awful suprise was the intensification over such a short distance.

[HurricaneBill]

I have to think the awful suprise was the intensification over such a short distance.

To this day, that scenario remains a meteorologist's worst nightmare.

That nightmarish scenario played out last year with Hurricane Charley.