Food for thought

[Anonymous]

:eek:

That would not be a good track, but doubt it will happen with TD 10 b/c of shear and my good friend Sal.

SAL? LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I was about to say LOL. THis thing should have a very moist enviornment head of it, as well as ever increasing SSTs up to the SE United States. I think it has a shot at hurricane staus in 3-4 days, and potentially more than that down the road.

My "NASO AGGRESSIVE" way of thinking with tropical cyclone intensity, is being dust off for possible use. I did it with Dennis and Emily and it worked. What I do, is take the liberal side of the forecast, if the environment looks good.

For example, Hurricane Dennis on July 7, 2005 at 5am, had winds of 90 mph...a Category 1. By 11pm that night, it had winds of 135 mph...a Category 4.

Then, the next morning...intensity jumped from 135-150 mph.

Basically, what the conclusion is, is that whenever you have a system in a good environment...and it get's its inner core, things can and probably will go rapidly. That's why I am concerned that if this does make South Florida...and it's an 80 mph (HAS AN INNER CORE) hurricane by the Bahamas, and then tightens while crossing the boiling Gulf Stream.......

....Let's watch it

[gatorcane]

That's why I am concerned that if this does make South Florida...and it's an 80 mph (HAS AN INNER CORE) hurricane by the Bahamas, and then tightens while crossing the boiling Gulf Stream.......

Just like Andrew...it doesn't take long for hurricane to go from a CAT1 to a major when it's over the warm waters of the Gulf stream and Bahamas.
I could strengthen that quickly in a matter of hours.

[Anonymous]

Long way out though...plenty of time to keep an eye on it.

[du1st]

Long way out though...plenty of time to keep an eye on it.

I totally agree although I see this maybe having Frances intesity.

[Frank2]

Re: Floydbuster's post

The early model runs have the system east (near 70-75W) of the Bahamas at a latitude of Miami, so, if it did affect the U.S. it seems it would be further north, and not Florida.

Frank

[DESTRUCTION5]

Re: Floydbuster's post

The early model runs have the system east (near 70-75W) of the Bahamas at a latitude of Miami, so, if it did affect the U.S. it seems it would be further north, and not Florida.

Frank

Frank sippin it agian

[Anonymous]

Frank is cool. I know that if I had a storm that could potentially head towards me, I would be wishing, hoping, thinkin, and prayin it away.

Frank, you can't go by one model run. Besides, who's to say that it wont have a ridge to the north, and then ridge building in south of the trough like this:::

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/COMP ... ml#picture

[wxwonder12]

You seem concerned with Florida at this point with a possible re-development of TD10. What part of the East Coast of Florida are you thinking specifically??

[Anonymous]

You seem concerned with Florida at this point with a possible re-development of TD10. What part of the East Coast of Florida are you thinking specifically??

It depends. Southeast Florida IMO right now, but if it gets picked up..say right before landfall...then worst case is a scraping up the coast. Too early to tell.

[gatorcane]

Southeast FL and the FL Keys with a bend northward.

[wxwonder12]

If that senerio were to play out what kind of time frame, matter of days, is the storm expected to be close to land, if any??

[Anonymous]

If that senerio were to play out what kind of time frame, matter of days, is the storm expected to be close to land, if any??

5-8 days.

[weatherwindow]

mike..here is food for thought. the southern and westernmost of the BAMMs put the system near acklins island, bahamas at 120 hours. that put it about 430 mi ese of miami or about two days travel at roughly its current speed. the mid latitiude trough, which will be the key player here, is forecast to be in the mid tennessee valley, at that time, moving southeast. if that trough doesnt stall, i believe a more northerly track is almost a certainty. IMO, in order for 10 to affect the florida coast the trough axis would have to stall at least 10deg longitude west of the east coast of fla. in addition, the more southerly models would have to verify in order to "sneak" the system south of the stronger south to southwest steering induced by the northern extent of the trough as it approachs the mid atlantic coast..........not impossible, but not highly probable ......rich

[weatherwoman]

do you think that will happen

[Frank2]

Re: DESTRUCTION5's post

I been very patient with your sarcastic remarks - either say something intelligent or keep your mouth shut - unless you want to be banned from this board!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Re: DESTRUCTION5's post

I been very patient with your sarcastic remarks - either say something intelligent or keep your mouth shut!

Frank we could have a Cat 5 50 miles east of miami with a 500MB ridge shunting it due west and you would dissapate it before it made landfall...You also said the trough would catch this thing about 20 degrees ago...So here we are..I know darn well everyone else notices the same thing...

[cycloneye]

Ok folks on both sides of the spectrum.Let's leave aside any personnal remarks and let's continue to discuss about the theme of this thread.Those who favor less activity have the right to voice their opinions such as those who favor plenty of hurricane activity but you can do it without making personnal remarks.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ok folks on both sides of the spectrum.Let's leave aside any personnal remarks and let's continue to discuss about the theme of this thread.Those who favor less activity have the right to voice their opinions such as those who favor plenty of hurricane activity.

Well said...No one can take a joke anymore....

[Anonymous]

mike..here is food for thought. the southern and westernmost of the BAMMs put the system near acklins island, bahamas at 120 hours. that put it about 430 mi ese of miami or about two days travel at roughly its current speed. the mid latitiude trough, which will be the key player here, is forecast to be in the mid tennessee valley, at that time, moving southeast. if that trough doesnt stall, i believe a more northerly track is almost a certainty. IMO, in order for 10 to affect the florida coast the trough axis would have to stall at least 10deg longitude west of the east coast of fla. in addition, the more southerly models would have to verify in order to "sneak" the system south of the stronger south to southwest steering induced by the northern extent of the trough as it approachs the mid atlantic coast..........not impossible, but not highly probable ......rich

Yes...possible west-northwest to northwest movement into Florida. Again, this is not a trough as powerful as a Charley or a Floyd-type trough. It will be a shortwave, IMO we will see.

[gatorcane]

this thing is not even a depression and we are already arguing. Couldn't imagine what will happen when/if it becomes a strengthening hurricane