Ex TD 10 Regenerating?

[sfwx]

TUE-FRI...FEATURE PLACEMENT AT MIDWEEK BECOMES LESS CERTAIN DUE TO
APPROACH OF TROPICAL WAVE (EX. TD #10) EURO AND GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A GENERAL WLY TRACK OF WAVE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS
WAVE CURRENTLY SHOWN APPROACHING S FL ON TUE AND INTERACTING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED EAST COAST TROUGH ON WED. WITH THIS SCENARIO EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN LAYERED MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN FOR PCPN
AREA WIDE AT MIDWEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WILL
HOLD OFF ON POP MENTION GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT ATTM. THU/FRI EAST
COAST TROUGH EXITS OVER THE OPEN ATLC WITH TROUGH TRAILING ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA. GFS SLOWEST WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SE STATES AND
ECMWF SHOWS MORE PROGRESSION TO EAST COAST TROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE SE STATES. WILL TRIM POPS BACK TO CLIMO LEVELS TO AVERAGE
ALONG BOUNDS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ATTM. TKS FOR COORD TBW

[cinlfla]

TUE-FRI...FEATURE PLACEMENT AT MIDWEEK BECOMES LESS CERTAIN DUE TO
APPROACH OF TROPICAL WAVE (EX. TD #10) EURO AND GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A GENERAL WLY TRACK OF WAVE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS
WAVE CURRENTLY SHOWN APPROACHING S FL ON TUE AND INTERACTING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED EAST COAST TROUGH ON WED. WITH THIS SCENARIO EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN LAYERED MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN

FOR PCPN
AREA WIDE AT MIDWEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WILL
HOLD OFF ON POP MENTION GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT ATTM. THU/FRI EAST
COAST TROUGH EXITS OVER THE OPEN ATLC WITH TROUGH TRAILING ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA. GFS SLOWEST WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SE STATES AND
ECMWF SHOWS MORE PROGRESSION TO EAST COAST TROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE SE STATES. WILL TRIM POPS BACK TO CLIMO LEVELS TO AVERAGE
ALONG BOUNDS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ATTM. TKS FOR COORD TBW

Can someone please explain this, so the avarage person might understand. THanks

[jkt21787]

TUE-FRI...FEATURE PLACEMENT AT MIDWEEK BECOMES LESS CERTAIN DUE TO
APPROACH OF TROPICAL WAVE (EX. TD #10) EURO AND GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A GENERAL WLY TRACK OF WAVE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS
WAVE CURRENTLY SHOWN APPROACHING S FL ON TUE AND INTERACTING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED EAST COAST TROUGH ON WED. WITH THIS SCENARIO EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN LAYERED MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN

FOR PCPN
AREA WIDE AT MIDWEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WILL
HOLD OFF ON POP MENTION GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT ATTM. THU/FRI EAST
COAST TROUGH EXITS OVER THE OPEN ATLC WITH TROUGH TRAILING ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA. GFS SLOWEST WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SE STATES AND
ECMWF SHOWS MORE PROGRESSION TO EAST COAST TROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE SE STATES. WILL TRIM POPS BACK TO CLIMO LEVELS TO AVERAGE
ALONG BOUNDS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ATTM. TKS FOR COORD TBW

Can someone please explain this, so the avarage person might understand. THanks

Concerning precipitation at Midweek...Due to the uncertaintity of future development (remnant TD 10 I assume) will hold off POP (probability of precipitation) greater than 50%, meaning no more than a 50% chance of rain through mid week. By thursday and Friday, the East Coast trough will exit and move into the Atlantic with the trough extending southwest into the FL peninsula. GFS is slowest in progressing the trough in that direction, with the ECMWF (Euro) showing more progression in that direction, and building High pressure into the Southeast states. During this period, will trim the probability of precipitation forecast back to normal climatology levels for late summer (I bet prob 20-30%) due to the increased uncertaintity over the progression of the developing trough. Also, a thanks to NWS Office Tampa Bay for coordination and discussion of the forecast concerns.

Hope this helps!

[LAwxrgal]

TUE-FRI...FEATURE PLACEMENT AT MIDWEEK BECOMES LESS CERTAIN DUE TO
APPROACH OF TROPICAL WAVE (EX. TD #10) EURO AND GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A GENERAL WLY TRACK OF WAVE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS
WAVE CURRENTLY SHOWN APPROACHING S FL ON TUE AND INTERACTING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED EAST COAST TROUGH ON WED. WITH THIS SCENARIO EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN LAYERED MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN

FOR PCPN
AREA WIDE AT MIDWEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WILL
HOLD OFF ON POP MENTION GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT ATTM. THU/FRI EAST
COAST TROUGH EXITS OVER THE OPEN ATLC WITH TROUGH TRAILING ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA. GFS SLOWEST WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SE STATES AND
ECMWF SHOWS MORE PROGRESSION TO EAST COAST TROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE SE STATES. WILL TRIM POPS BACK TO CLIMO LEVELS TO AVERAGE
ALONG BOUNDS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ATTM. TKS FOR COORD TBW

Can someone please explain this, so the avarage person might understand. THanks

Concerning precipitation at Midweek...Due to the uncertaintity of future development (remnant TD 10 I assume) will hold off POP (probability of precipitation) greater than 50%, meaning no more than a 50% chance of rain through mid week. By thursday and Friday, the East Coast trough will exit and move into the Atlantic with the trough extending southwest into the FL peninsula. GFS is slowest in progressing the trough in that direction, with the ECMWF (Euro) showing more progression in that direction, and building High pressure into the Southeast states. During this period, will trim the probability of precipitation forecast back to normal climatology levels for late summer (I bet prob 20-30%) due to the increased uncertaintity over the progression of the developing trough. Also, a thanks to NWS Office Tampa Bay for coordination and discussion of the forecast concerns.

Hope this helps!

In more layman's terms, they don't have a clue what ex-TD10 will do, so they're using the wait-and-see approach before determining what the chances of precipitation will be.

[cinlfla]

In more layman's terms, they don't have a clue what ex-TD10 will do, so they're using the wait-and-see approach before determining what the chances of precipitation will be.

Thanks I needed laymans terms, I should have stated that.