How strong can #12 get? 1935 Labor Day Hurricane Repeat?

[Myersgirl]

Hmmm... what was Charley's predicted cat and where did we end up in just hours??????????????

[rockyman]

I just don't know what the problem is with discussing the Labor Day Hurricane...Yes, it did explode in this same area...yes, we are having what is supposed to be a record-setting season...I don't see why it is "irresponsible" to discuss what (obviously) is possible (the original poster NEVER said that it was probable)...If anyone on this board goes bonkers after reading the headline without reading the thread, maybe that's just his/her problem. This business of protecting the ignorant masses from their ignorance has no place on this bulletin board...As long as the content of the thread is not blatantly misleading (such as a bogus NHC-looking forecast) I say post away!

[Dean4Storms]

Didn't the 1935 Keys Hurricane go from a Depression to a Cat 5 storm in a couple of days right in this area?!?!?!

I'm curious if anything like this is possible again.

Any relations to Curious George?

Seriously, very much a stretch.

[WeatherEmperor]

I just don't know what the problem is with discussing the Labor Day Hurricane...Yes, it did explode in this same area...yes, we are having what is supposed to be a record-setting season...I don't see why it is "irresponsible" to discuss what (obviously) is possible (the original poster NEVER said that it was probable)...If anyone on this board goes bonkers after reading the headline without reading the thread, maybe that's just his/her problem. This business of protecting the ignorant masses from their ignorance has no place on this bulletin board...As long as the content of the thread is not blatantly misleading (such as a bogus NHC-looking forecast) I say post away!

Amen to that

<RICKY>

[Scorpion]

If it develops a central core and moves slowly over the 90 degree water with the ULL providing ventilation(if that occurs) things would get very nasty quickly.

[jpigott]

yeah, i think if that happens most of south fla (at least those who don't frequent this board) will be in for a nasty surprise with very little time for preparation. Unfortunately, intensity forecasting is a crap shoot. This thing could stay a minimal TS as it crosses over SFLA, become a strong TS/weak CANE ala' Erin of 95', and history has shown this thing could blow up into a monster within a short period of time (Labor Day cane of 35'). The forecast track takes TD12 over historically high SSTs at a slow rate of speed. We here in SFLA better hope that ULL to the N continues to inhibit development

[WeatherEmperor]

yeah, i think if that happens most of south fla (at least those who don't frequent this board) will be in for a nasty surprise with very little time for preparation. Unfortunately, intensity forecasting is a crap shoot. This thing could stay a minimal TS as it crosses over SFLA, become a strong TS/weak CANE ala' Erin of 95', and history has shown this thing could blow up into a monster within a short period of time (Labor Day cane of 35'). The forecast track takes TD12 over historically high SSTs at a slow rate of speed. We here in SFLA better hope that ULL to the N continues to inhibit development

I too am hoping that ULL does some damage to TD12 but as you said, the forecast is for it to be moving near some record warm waters very slowly. Oh boy.

<RICKY>

[Acral]

I would think that many people on this board are savvy enough to know that it is extremely unlikely for this depression to intensify that much prior to its first landfall.

While any can, (and often does) happen with weather systems, it seems unlikely that that scenario would repeat in the forseeabe future.

[jpigott]

yes, unlikely but there is historical precedent for such an event. The labor day hurricane was a depression/weak TS is the same area but by the time it reached the Keys . . . well I think you know the rest. Intensification forecasting is not an exact science and we have seen storms bomb in relatively short periods of time. In short, prepare for the worst, hope for the best

[frederic79]

From my post in another thread...
The primary conditions needed for extreme intensity are:

1- upper tropospheric anticyclone enhancing outflow (forecast to develop)
2- abundant cumulus convection (exists)
3- strong LLC (exists)
4- light or non-existent vertical wind sheer (10 knots)
5- SST's higher than 28.5 degree C (exists in abundance)
6- reasonable forward speed (8 mph is very reasonable)
7- warm, moist environment; absence of dry air (exists)

However, this would only apply to a well developed system with a strong central core. It is irresponsible to suggest we'll see this with TD12 because their are too many variables. Conditions are always changing and extremely strong storms are very rare. It's just something we have to watch.

[gatorcane]

Hmmm... what was Charley's predicted cat and where did we end up in just hours??????????????

We are dealing with water temps around 88-89F. This area of the Atlantic has not seen any major system ULL or anything else for a couple of months and the sun has done it's work...The beach is like bath water trust me...it is not usually this hot.

So rapid intensification can happen if other atmospheric conditions are favorable (e.g. those that people in this thread have expounded upon).

[cjrciadt]

Hmmm... what was Charley's predicted cat and where did we end up in just hours??????????????

Thanks for reminding me. It was a Cat1 when I woke that morning, and was updating hourly in the afternoon until reaching Cat4.5 strength . The insanely hot waters of the GOM can turn it into a Cat3 easily or more.

[shaggy]

seems that theres some decent NE to SW shear over the pennisula and i think theres several potential swirls that could evetually become the dominant center.Certainly bears watching even up the east coast as a few stubborn models still want to bring it up the EC of Florida which i find hard to buy in to.If it does wrap up then it has the ptential to be a strong TS or weak cane at 1st landfall but more importantly is that a better defined center will trek across florida intact better and that poses a real concern for the GOM

[Windtalker1]

Didn't the 1935 Keys Hurricane go from a Depression to a Cat 5 storm in a couple of days right in this area?!?!?!

I'm curious if anything like this is possible again.

I do not think Logybogy was saying it will be a Cat 5...What I think he was saying is that "OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME' The great Labor day storm BOMBED into a Cat 5......I do not think this will happen but if this Storm slows to a crawl, we could very well see a 90-100mph Hurricane hit the coast.

[logybogy]

Read the 5pm discussion people....and next time maybe it is better not to poo-poo an idea you don't agree with.

NHC says RAPID INTESIFICATION INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.

In fact, one of their intensification models says the likelihood of this happening is 57%.

WITH THE IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES...SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
...AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF A
NORMAL RATE OF 10 KT PER 12 HOURS UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS SEEMS
JUSTIFIED. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT MUCH
LESS THAN THE NOW VERY BULLISH GFDL MODEL WHICH BRINGS KATRINA TO
111 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT WITH
SSTS NEAR 31C AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LANDFALL. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL EXPERIMENTAL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OUTPUT...WHICH INDICATES A 57 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF THAT OCCURRING. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE
DRY AIR THAT SURROUNDS KATRINA AND HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE INNER-CORE REGION AND ERODING THE DEEP CONVECTION. IF THE DRY
AIR MIXES OUT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN INTENSITIES WOULD
LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.

[Scorpion]

Wow, just wow. 111 kt wont happen, but it could be higher than 80 mph at landfall.

[logybogy]

I think it'll come in as a Cat 2 around 100MPH.

[krysof]

I don't understand what all the fuss is about. It's a just a weak tropical storm. Obviously Florida has seen much worse. What's the big deal? I doubt Katrina will even be a hurricane at landfall or a hurricane in its life time. Even if it reaches hurricane status, the impacts won't be that great.

[logybogy]

It's irrelevent what it is NOW. It's what it will be in 2 days that is relevent. And tell the folks all throughout Florida that Hurricane force winds are no big deal.

Most of the damage caused in last years 4 hurricanes were caused by Cat 1 and 2 winds. The Cat 3 winds were incredibly localized.

[jkt21787]

Read the 5pm discussion people....and next time maybe it is better not to poo-poo an idea you don't agree with.

NHC says RAPID INTESIFICATION INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.

In fact, one of their intensification models says the likelihood of this happening is 57%.

WITH THE IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES...SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
...AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF A
NORMAL RATE OF 10 KT PER 12 HOURS UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS SEEMS
JUSTIFIED. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT MUCH
LESS THAN THE NOW VERY BULLISH GFDL MODEL WHICH BRINGS KATRINA TO
111 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT WITH
SSTS NEAR 31C AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LANDFALL. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL EXPERIMENTAL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OUTPUT...WHICH INDICATES A 57 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF THAT OCCURRING. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE
DRY AIR THAT SURROUNDS KATRINA AND HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE INNER-CORE REGION AND ERODING THE DEEP CONVECTION. IF THE DRY
AIR MIXES OUT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN INTENSITIES WOULD
LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.

That doesn't mean rapid intensification into a MAJOR before landfall. SInce we are dealing with a weak TS now, rapid intensification will lead to a cat 1 maybe cat 2. Cat 3 will be a far reach. Not impossible, but certainly inprobable.

The 57% means chance of rapid intensification, not chance of becoming a major. Plus, GFDL notoriously intensifies any storm to major levels in many cases which never pan out.

I don't think its time to panic in South Florida.