Strong trough saving upper Texas/LA coasts Again???

[KatDaddy]

You are right on target Floydbuster. Traversing the extremely warm waters of the E Central, N Central and NW GOM would yield a monstrous hurricane which I do not want.

[skysummit]

Mike,

What do you think Katrina will do once she's in the GOM. Has you opinion/thoughts changed any today?

[vbhoutex]

If this had gone to Texas...I have little doubt it would have been a Category 4.

Uh, it isn't over yet. No, I don't think it is going to Texas, but I NEVER SAY NEVER in the tropics.

And I agree that if it did make it this far West we would be looking at a very strong, probably CAT 4, Hurricane. *vb puts portastorm and opera ghost out in his front yard!!!* for insurance.

[HouTXmetro]

If this had gone to Texas...I have little doubt it would have been a Category 4.

Uh, it isn't over yet. No, I don't think it is going to Texas, but I NEVER SAY NEVER in the tropics.

And I agree that if it did make it this far West we would be looking at a very strong, probably CAT 4, Hurricane. *vb puts portastorm and opera ghost out in his front yard!!!* for insurance.

Hey, don't forget me. Since Alicia I'm undefeated in Hurricanes and WPAC Typhoons.

[cajungal]

Almost the anniversary of the Labor Day 1900 Galveston Hurricane.

[skysummit]

Anyone listening to Radio NHCWX? They're talking about the models starting to shift west again.

[cajungal]

I never heard it. So far the furthest west it takes it is Mobile Bay. The rest have it near the Big Bend Area of Florida. It looks like first landfall will be around Ft. Lauderdale. That is what I guessed yesterday!

[Swimdude]

If this had gone to Texas...I have little doubt it would have been a Category 4.

No doubt in my mind either. Would've been a disaster...

[dwg71]

If this had gone to Texas...I have little doubt it would have been a Category 4.

No doubt in my mind either. Would've been a disaster...

I guess I'm missing the points of statements like this... If this would have happend..., if that would have happend. All storms would become cat 5 if all factors are perfect and it takes the perfect path, but a major hurricane is very rare, because conditions and circumstances aren't perfect very often.

I'm not bashing, I'm just trying to understand the reasoning for these statments. If Irene would have become a cat 5 and turned left into NYC, it would have been devastating, but it didn't happen.

Also, it wasn't ever forecast to be a cat 4 or go anywhere near tx. So, it doesnt seem to apply. Now if you said good thing storm X dropped from cat 4 to cat 1 jsut before landfall or it could have been disasterous, then I can see that.

[Anonymous]

It still could happen, it's still early.

[dwg71]

It still could happen, it's still early.

What a cat 4 into TX? Sure it could happen, but its as likely to go to Mexico, the odds are less than 1% according to the NHC. The NHC is not going to be off 800 miles 4 days out. Not going to happen.

[southerngale]

It still could happen, it's still early.

What a cat 4 into TX? Sure it could happen, but its as likely to go to Mexico, the odds are less than 1% according to the NHC. The NHC is not going to be off 800 miles 4 days out. Not going to happen.

No, but maybe 500 or so miles 2 days out.








And no, I do not think it's coming to Texas. My personal opinion (and comments on here or in chat) have always been the Central GOM or further east. I just posted this because although the NHC is superb with tracking systems, sometimes things don't happen quite as expected. The eventual landfall is well outside of the cone from 2 days earlier.

[Stormtrack]

It still could happen, it's still early.

Above the envelope storms hitting Texas is pretty rare,although certainly not impossible. I wonder when was the last time? I can't remember any, although Andrew gave us a good scare.

[Air Force Met]

It still could happen, it's still early.

Above the envelope storms hitting Texas is pretty rare,although certainly not impossible. I wonder when was the last time? I can't remember any, although Andrew gave us a good scare.

I did a search on storms moving into the GOM from the north coast of Cuba and points north. There were 9 landfalling storms along the Texas coast since the 1850's...and a couple that went into Mexico.

[dwg71]

Point taken with Cindy, but also Cindy was a depression at the time of first forecast and Katrina is a strong TS, with recon fixes and a well defined center. Apples and oranges, IMO

[Stormcenter]

Point taken with Cindy, but also Cindy was a depression at the time of first forecast and Katrina is a strong TS, with recon fixes and a well defined center. Apples and oranges, IMO

Then take a look at Elena.

[Steve]

Don't look now, but have a little fun courtesy of the University of Wyoming's 12z UKMET's. It had moved off the chart right at 00z and is throwing a little more life into the mix now.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/ukmet.html

Steve

[Air Force Met]

Point taken with Cindy, but also Cindy was a depression at the time of first forecast and Katrina is a strong TS, with recon fixes and a well defined center. Apples and oranges, IMO

Then take a look at Elena.

There will always be errors...but you can't compare a forecast for Elena to one today. The error back then was about 330 miles or so at 72 hrs...now it like 150. Lot's changed since then.

[Stormcenter]

Point taken with Cindy, but also Cindy was a depression at the time of first forecast and Katrina is a strong TS, with recon fixes and a well defined center. Apples and oranges, IMO

Then take a look at Elena.

There will always be errors...but you can't compare a forecast for Elena to one today. The error back then was about 330 miles or so at 72 hrs...now it like 150. Lot's changed since then.

Let's hope so.

[Steve]

No TX or LA, but here's the SFWD's updated map:



Steve