New models.. W

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HurryKane
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#21 Postby HurryKane » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:16 pm

You gotta be kidding.
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jkt21787
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#22 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:16 pm

Brent wrote:I just saw elsewhere that the NHC will have a landfall at 11pm at...

Ya'll need to sit down for this one.























LAKE CHARLES!!!


and yes... it's the Lake Charles not far from Texas.

Don't believe it at all. That has to be a hoax of some sort.
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#23 Postby Lori » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:16 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek:
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#24 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:17 pm

I really have to question it...

*goes to edit post*
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#25 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:19 pm

Brent wrote:I really have to question it...

*goes to edit post*

Now that I see where that came from, I know its likely false.
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#26 Postby hicksta » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:19 pm

Whered you hear that from
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#27 Postby jwayne » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:19 pm

[quote="Brent"]I really have to question it...

*goes to edit post*[/quo



Brent, I respect you man, but that can't be right at this point. NHC is way too conservative to make another big jump now.
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#28 Postby dhweather » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:20 pm

No way they'll jump that far in one advisory. Worst case, New Iberia.
Likely NOLA/Slidell.
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#29 Postby greeng13 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:20 pm

btangy wrote:
feederband wrote:I think the XTRP has it down pat... :roll: :wink: :lol: :D 8-)


Sadly, I think persistence (XTRP) has beaten all the models since Katrina turned WSW.


VOTE FOR PEDRO!

(sorry I did not mean to offend anyone by this post it was meant as a humorous reference to a certain movie starring a white geekish-type guy who...)

and i am not -removed- either
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#30 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:21 pm

hicksta wrote:Whered you hear that from


It was on another board but it's now been deleted... figures.
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#31 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:21 pm

dhweather wrote:No way they'll jump that far in one advisory. Worst case, New Iberia.
Likely NOLA/Slidell.


That was my 1st thought.
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#32 Postby Lori » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:21 pm

I don't think so. All the models are East of Lake Charles. And the NHC moves the track conservatively west. So I'm guessing NHC center track more like MS/LA line.
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TampaFl
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Re: New models.. W

#33 Postby TampaFl » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:22 pm

hicksta wrote:Image
Most seem to cover middle LA


Nice model map hicksta. Can you post the link to the map? :D

Robert 8-)
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#34 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:22 pm

Lori wrote:I don't think so. All the models are East of Lake Charles. And the NHC moves the track conservatively west. So I'm guessing NHC center track more like MS/LA line.

The track shift wasn't conservatively west today at 5. :wink:
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#35 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:24 pm

Model concensus looks to be a little West of New Orleans now. This one has Louisiana written all over it :eek: .
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#36 Postby hicksta » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:27 pm

Wasnt it all written all over pensacola few hours ago :wink:
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#37 Postby Lori » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:27 pm

:think:

We will know soon where the 11:00 track is. :)
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#38 Postby Windy » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:29 pm

I too, think that they may just bullseye NOLA. Even if the guidance is a bit to the left or right of NOLA, the human interface is such that a large number of people only follow the big black line, not the cone. The people of NOLA need to be scared into leaving if there is even a one in five possibility of a worst case scenario hit. Putting the big black line over NOLA with a CAT 4 would accomplish this sense of fear, and hopefully motivate people to exodus.
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#39 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:30 pm

I've been a bit less confident of the "trend" to the west, but this ever so slightly south of due west motion should stop sometime soon, or else the La theat is a real one.
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#40 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 9:32 pm

Windy wrote:I too, think that they may just bullseye NOLA. Even if the guidance is a bit to the left or right of NOLA, the human interface is such that a large number of people only follow the big black line, not the cone. The people of NOLA need to be scared into leaving if there is even a one in five possibility of a worst case scenario hit. Putting the big black line over NOLA with a CAT 4 would accomplish this sense of fear, and hopefully motivate people to exodus.

And then if it doesn't people will never evacuate again. :wink: Sadly...
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