Tropical Storm Maria,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BEING ABSORBED BY A LARGER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. THIS NEW SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING AND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST.


From 11:30 AM TWO.Interesting that it splited and now the lower end is the one developing.

[cycloneye]

SAT IMAGERY

[Hyperstorm]

Yes, Cycloneye.

It was foreseeable that the earlier area known as 91L wasn't going to make it as UL winds were just too strong just W and WNW of it. It is currently moving WNW-NW, so development is not expected there.

However, it is very interesting that this new area that has developed has better potential for development, since it is loctated further south and west.

There doesn't appear to be a well-defined tight circulation, but convection is becoming organized and there are banding features beginning to develop. There is currently very dry air to its W and NW, but right now it shouldn't be a problem since it's near the ITCZ at a lower latitude.

This one could travel W-WNW for a while...

[dwg71]

Yes, Cycloneye.

It was foreseeable that the earlier area known as 91L wasn't going to make it as UL winds were just too strong just W and WNW of it. It is currently moving WNW-NW, so development is not expected there.

However, it is very interesting that this new area that has developed has better potential for development, since it is loctated further south and west.

There doesn't appear to be a well-defined tight circulation, but convection is becoming organized and there are banding features beginning to develop. There is currently very dry air to its W and NW, but right now it shouldn't be a problem since it's near the ITCZ at a lower latitude.

This one could travel W-WNW for a while...

Bulliten says WNW to NW for a while..

[Fego]

[nequad]

^ I think closer to just N of W or WNW is more reasonable with the further south system...at least for 72 hours. Beyond that time there "may" be a weakness in the ridge that will allow for a NW motion.

Firts things first tho...this thing has to develop. Which for one reason or another has become quite difficult over the deep tropics in an otherwise active season. Crazy.

[Hyperstorm]

Yes, Cycloneye.

It was foreseeable that the earlier area known as 91L wasn't going to make it as UL winds were just too strong just W and WNW of it. It is currently moving WNW-NW, so development is not expected there.

However, it is very interesting that this new area that has developed has better potential for development, since it is loctated further south and west.

There doesn't appear to be a well-defined tight circulation, but convection is becoming organized and there are banding features beginning to develop. There is currently very dry air to its W and NW, but right now it shouldn't be a problem since it's near the ITCZ at a lower latitude.

This one could travel W-WNW for a while...

Bulliten says WNW to NW for a while..

I know what they said.

The system is currently moving westward and I expect that as (IF) it develops, it will take a WNW course.

Right now, the system doesn't have any kind of northward component...

[cycloneye]

A STRONG E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 30W S OF 18N AND
MOVING W ABOUT 20 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 9N30W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD
ELONGATED CIRCULATION COVERING THE AREA FROM 6N TO 16N BETWEEN
25W AND 38W. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 13N32W
7N33W LINE

2 PM Discussion from TPC.

[cycloneye]

29/1800 UTC 9.1N 31.8W T1.5/1.5 91 -- Atlantic Ocean

[DESTRUCTION5]

Thats a Depression

[cajungal]

I could not help myself from reading it. It is a habit. But, the gulf coast just wishes hurricane season was over. We had enough! Can't believe we still have all of September and October to go!

[cajungal]

Looks to be a fish. And please let it be a fish. Enough is enough.

[Frank2]

Yes, I mentioned this new disturbance to some here - it seems to have organized very quickly since this morning.

Perhaps some here might understand why myself and others were hoping for the unexpected lull to continue.

It's hard to believe the Florida has had 6 landfalling hurricanes over the past 12 months!

I think many here are hurricane weary at this point!

Frank

[SouthFloridawx]

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yes, I mentioned this new disturbance to some here - it seems to have organized very quickly since this morning.

Perhaps some here might understand why myself and others were hoping for the unexpected lull to continue.

It's hard to believe the Florida has had 6 landfalling hurricanes over the past 12 months!

I think many here are hurricane weary at this point!

Frank

THere you are frank...Remember when Karina was supposed to get grabbed by that trough way before the islands...look at where we are now..

[cyclone_eye]

Looks like a strong tropical depression, espcially with 30Kt winds on the south-west.

[ConvergenceZone]

They mentioned on the weather that this will be a fish or any other CV wave will more than likely be a fish due to weak areas in the high pressure out in the Atlantic. So we will be okay for awhile, so don't let this bother you. Most storms that form out here are fish. This is VERY VERY normal, but sometimes some sneak on by.

We just have to watch out in the Carib and see if anything develops from there during the next couple of week, but I think we'll have a decent sized break from any landfall and we sure need the break!!

[ConvergenceZone]

Yes, I mentioned this new disturbance to some here - it seems to have organized very quickly since this morning.

Perhaps some here might understand why myself and others were hoping for the unexpected lull to continue.

It's hard to believe the Florida has had 6 landfalling hurricanes over the past 12 months!

I think many here are hurricane weary at this point!

Frank

THere you are frank...Remember when Karina was supposed to get grabbed by that trough way before the islands...look at where we are now..

and in most cases, the storm would have been grabbed by that trough, but as they say, never say never. With the waves out there now though,, there's a distinct weakness in the ridge, thank god.

[cycloneye]

A STRONG 1008 MB EAST ATLC TROPICAL SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
9N32W MOVING W ABOUT 25 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A BROAD ELONGATED CIRCULATION COVERING THE AREA FROM 5N-15N
BETWEEN 28W-38W. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LINE 7N34W
11N36W 14N32W.


8 PM discussion.

[Noah]

Its going north right, that the projected path..