Rapid Weakening? SMFR Data at 120kts?

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like it's a borderline cat5 now with 160 mph. In spite of the weakening, I still agree with the other poster that it shouldn't get lower than 145 mph. I don't see any strenghtening since it's so close to land already and the outflow is well over land. More than likley a cat 4 at landfall.

[steveklein]

looks like it is weakening pretty rapidly to me. when the conditions aren't perfect a cat 5 can QUICKLY fall off to a strong 3 or weak 4, and that appears to be what is happening now.

i smell an ivan type impact.

[Brent]

The eye still looks perfect to me... I don't get all this weakening talk.

[jkt21787]

recon just found 155 kt winds, justifies the 160 mph well. No real weakening happening at this time.

[Raebie]

I don't see an open eyewall either.

[ConvergenceZone]

looks like it is weakening pretty rapidly to me. when the conditions aren't perfect a cat 5 can QUICKLY fall off to a strong 3 or weak 4, and that appears to be what is happening now.

i smell an ivan type impact.

I'm not sure where you are getting the "weakening rapidly" from. The outflow is still good, the eye looks wide and just as impressive as before. True conditions have to be perfect to hold a 5, but they don't need to be perfect to hold a medium to strong 4.

[Brent]

HOLD THE PHONE...

155 kts just found by recon.

Rapid weakening cancel.

[gilbert88]

The 7 PM Advisory doens't mention weakening...

[mtm4319]

looks like it is weakening pretty rapidly to me. when the conditions aren't perfect a cat 5 can QUICKLY fall off to a strong 3 or weak 4, and that appears to be what is happening now.

i smell an ivan type impact.

Don't be ridiculous.

[wlfpack81]

looks like it is weakening pretty rapidly to me. when the conditions aren't perfect a cat 5 can QUICKLY fall off to a strong 3 or weak 4, and that appears to be what is happening now.

i smell an ivan type impact.

Keep in mind that if this storm goes just east of NO then 125-135mph n-ly winds will still push a lot of Lake Poncho into the city. That's generally been the whole concern about this NO worst case scenario. Not so much the winds but flooding from the north. So as othres say be careful when trying to imply that Katrina may spare NO. If the eye diameter stays at 25-30mi and goes 15-25mi east of the city then there's still the potential for a lot of damaging flooding.

[feederband]

I think she is holding her own right now...Don't see her weeking to much right now...

[canejacket]

I was always under the impression that storms strengthen in the evening, especially when the storm is about to move over 88-90 degree temps.

[krysof]

TWC showed infared on it and I've noticed the cloud tops of the southern eyewall get colder, could this be back to a strenghtening phase over time.

[LSU2001]

Don't look weak to me at all
Tim

[Brent]

She could be VERY VERY VERY slowly weakening... but 2 mb in 7 or 8 hours is more like typical fluctuations. She could easily intensify again... and let's face it... 160 mph is nothing to sneeze at...

[curtinnc]

Please.... Gotta go with what Bastardi said, until you see the pressure rising up above 910 and holding, this is not a weakening phase... Windspeed will stay high for quite a while... and don't count on a bunch of interaction with land... What land?? Like it did across South Florida right?? Thing dropped a whole 20 mph across the Glades'...

It's like this... If it's -25 degress outside, that's dern cold. If it goes up 10 degress, is that a HEAT WAVE?????????

[vbhoutex]

Katarina is not significatntly or rapidly weakening. That would be awesome if she does, but don't expect it. She is just now getting over the warm eddy off the mouth of the Mississippi and that will more than likely forestall any weakening. In fact that along with the normal cycling of an intense hurricane would lead me to expect some strengthening overnight. I hope I am wrong, but even if she comes in as a high end CAT 4 the damage will still be catastrophic. A lot of the surge that will be affecting the MS coast has already built up offshore and will still come in similar to what happened with Ivan.

[krysof]

Exactly, weakens or not, it's still going to be extremely destructive to catastropic.

[deltadog03]

the clouds are starting to cool again...the eye looks to be contracting slightly too

[sfgal]

OMG -- in that pic that lsu2001 posted, the eye is almost as big as Lake Ponchartrain. I hope that thing is weakening.