Where 95L/TD-17 may go...

[jkt21787]

this time the eye may go over NO i hope i'm wrong

That is a very suspicious comment, IMO.

That kind of nonsense is not needed. There is NOTHING to support that statement.

[PerfectStorm]

Perfectstorm i've yet to see any model take TD17 into the GOM.

youre exactly right. I haven't either (didn't post that models had this going into the GOM). I think one discussion point of this thread is the current situation with high pressure ridging and how it will affect the model output and eventual track of this system. lots of variables out there this far out!

[ROCK]

FCI point I was trying to make was that there is definitely going to be a more northerly component to the eventual track of this system, if the ridging should strengthen significantly then we would see the possibility of an East Coast or Central to E GOM system. I was trying to intimate that TX or a western push to the left is the least likely scenario based on both models and climatology.

You got to be in the wrong thread. 96L is the one looking to be a GOM event after FL.

[f5]

this time the eye may go over NO i hope i'm wrong

That is a very suspicious comment, IMO.

That kind of nonsense is not needed. There is NOTHING to support that statement.

I was talking about 96L sorry i got my alphabet soup mix up

[jkt21787]

this time the eye may go over NO i hope i'm wrong

That is a very suspicious comment, IMO.

That kind of nonsense is not needed. There is NOTHING to support that statement.

I was talking about 96L sorry i got my alphabet soup mix up

OK, but there still is nothing to support the eye of a hurricane passing directly over NO with 96L either.

I see one model trying to curve it up toward SE LA. Hardly suggesting a direct hit (eye passing over) on New Orleans.

[Ivanhater]

this time the eye may go over NO i hope i'm wrong

That is a very suspicious comment, IMO.

That kind of nonsense is not needed. There is NOTHING to support that statement.

I was talking about 96L sorry i got my alphabet soup mix up

OK, but there still is nothing to support the eye of a hurricane passing directly over NO with 96L either.

I see one model trying to curve it up toward SE LA. Hardly suggesting a direct hit (eye passing over) on New Orleans.

ya, and gfdl doesnt say se lousiana either, it could keep turning north and hit further east

[Noah]

Anyone think this TD will be a threat to florida? Im on the south west coast.

[MiamiensisWx]

Anyone think this TD will be a threat to florida? Im on the south west coast.

At the moment, I don't expect a Florida threat. However, how conditions play out and affect TD 17 is yet to be seen.

[Noah]

What will prevent it from coming to florida?

[jkt21787]

Anyone think this TD will be a threat to florida? Im on the south west coast.

Be much more concerned about 96L, IMO.

[MiamiensisWx]

What will prevent it from coming to florida?

A ridge weakness and a trough playing a part in the weakness is what may prevent TD 17 from coming to Florida.

[ROCK]

this time the eye may go over NO i hope i'm wrong

That is a very suspicious comment, IMO.

That kind of nonsense is not needed. There is NOTHING to support that statement.

I was talking about 96L sorry i got my alphabet soup mix up

OK, but there still is nothing to support the eye of a hurricane passing directly over NO with 96L either.

I see one model trying to curve it up toward SE LA. Hardly suggesting a direct hit (eye passing over) on New Orleans.

ya, and gfdl doesnt say se lousiana either, it could keep turning north and hit further east

Whole GOM should watch it for sure however Im still thinking MX, extreme S.Texas as alot of the globals seem to think. I havent seen a turn north indicated from any of the models.

[Ivanhater]

]

. I havent seen a turn north indicated from any of the models.[/quote]


gfdl turns it north and a couple of the bams do, and lbar before the gulf

[ROCK]

]

. I havent seen a turn north indicated from any of the models.

gfdl turns it north and a couple of the bams do, and lbar before the gulf[/quote]


ok, but do you really rely on the BAMM's and LBAR? No offense but you might as well throw darts at a tracking chart...

[Ivanhater]

]

. I havent seen a turn north indicated from any of the models.

gfdl turns it north and a couple of the bams do, and lbar before the gulf

ok, but do you really rely on the BAMM's and LBAR? No offense but you might as well throw darts at a tracking chart... [/quote]

oh believe me, i dont trust the bams, but i was just saying the ones that do turn it north

[Rainband]

Remember Ophelia. The conditions made the models all but useless. Time should tell the tale. The time and manner in which this system develops will have a great impact on where it ultimately ends up.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

wxman,
is there anything to what some folks are saying about the possibility of the ridge building back in strongly and to the west? -wouldn't that force D17 back into the US east coast?
I have also heard that the ridge over texas will strengthen and protect texas and the upper gulf coast.
Then there is the front that is sweeping through the rockies right now...
By the time 96L gets out of the way and TD17 gets more northerly, what sort of synoptic setup do you see occurring?
I know the models all say fish now... but they only go out so far in time. At this point, I think at the end of their runs, they would have probable Phillippe starting to bump up to the ridge to its north and then have to make a left turn back to the states.
Maybe by then though, the front across the rockies will have a chance to get over to the east coast to shunt it out to sea to the NE. who knows.

I bet we find ourselves, like so many other seasons at this time of year, saying we have to just wait and see... how strong will the ridges be, the location of the fronts, the strength of the storms...etc.

Looks like the action is on regardless between TD17, 96L, soon to be 97L and the latest coming off the African Coast. Pretty obvious we have transitioned back into a wet MJO huh?!

[krysof]

TD 17 can do many things, people say it will immediately become a fish, but that is very far out and we have no proof of that. The ridge may very well build in.

[fci]

It appears that there will be a big gap in the ridge to the north in 4-5 days as a front moves off the east U.S. Coast. Seventeen / Philippe definitely looks like a fish to me. Could possibly brush the NE Caribbean, but it is already on a NW course. The center isn't under the convection, it's a little north of the convection. Chances of any impact on the east U.S. coast look extremely slim, and it doesn't look like it'll be tracking west thru the Caribbean.

So if you are looking for a U.S. threat, look to 96L not this one. If you live in the NE Caribbean, keep your eyes on TD 17.

Thank you wxman.
I just don't any merit at this point in talking Fl or GOM unless there is a dramatic shift in models.
This has fish written all over it and the extreme NE Carib is the only one that should have any concern at this point.
NEVER say never but this one can be viewed from afar at this point.
96L is the one to pay attention to for us (with the exception of Luis and the NE Carib gang for now).

Any discussion like earlier; of this one tracking right behind 96L; just ain't in the cards!