Texas Threat for TD 18?

[wxmann_91]

for a real good time watch the 06Z GFDL run and watch the "CAN NO TAKE ANOTHER HIT" threads ensue. This is going to be one insane week on the boards....

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005091806-eighteen18l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


cheers,
loon

If a track like that happened,it could put NOLA on the east side of a storm.
Not good no matter how you look at it. I hope this system just heads into Mexico.(heck, they don't need it either, but the gulf coast can't get hit again.)

Mexico has had enough with Emily, Bret, Jose, and Gert, if TD 18 HAD to hit land I hope it goes into Kenedy County, TX - one of the most rural coastal counties along the Gulf Coast.

[InimanaChoogamaga]

If this storm even heads near the NW Gulf of Mexico they are going to have to evacuate those oil rigs and gas prices are not going to be pretty. They are already ugly!

[wxman57]

Alicia was my first hurricane ever, and I am in no hurry to experience another one. There was not too much pleasant about it at all, including being out of power for two weeks afterwards.

Let's all hope and/or pray that Rita is an old lady with not much air in her lungs. She can be a little bit of a crybaby, but no BAWLING!

Actually, if you were in Houston for Alicia, then you saw a moderate tropical storm wind-wise. Hurricane-force sustained winds were confined to the counties to our south. For the most part, we got about 50-60 mph sustained winds with some gusts above hurricane strength. I believe that the last time Houston experienced 75 mph wind or greater was 1949, or possibly 1943.

[wxman57]

Here's a plot of some dynamic models. I removed the BAMD/BAMM/BAMS as they won't account for the proper strength of the ridge over the Gulf Coast over the next few days. So you're mostly looking at various iterations of the GFDL and the GFS models. The 12Z GFS has landfall between Corpus Christi and Victoria, TX next Saturday afternoon. The GFDL is a little north of there. The 12Z European isn't in yet, but the 00Z had landfall in northern Mexico by Tampico. The trend in the ECMWF was farther northward, though. US Navy NOGAPS still takes the storm inland near Tampico as well, but it's indicating little movement after 5 days and perhaps a northward drift.

What I'm seeing is a trend in all the dynamic models that indicates a slightly weaker ridge across the southern U.S. by Thursday/Friday. That, combined with a little slower movement by Rita-to-be means that it may be turning northwestward when it moves past 90W. So the threat to the Texas coast appears to be increasing, and Rita could well be a Major Category 3 hurricane at landfall. But it's way too early to be sure of Rita's eventual intensity.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/rita5.gif">

[crazycajuncane]

Any north shift in the track and we'll be in some trouble. Also... putting us on the east side of the storm.

This storm brews up pretty quick. Looks like were going to have another strong one to deal with by late week.

[SunnyThoughts]

She sure seems to be getting her act together...everybody in south FLa..the keys, and eventually in the western gom (according to the models) take care.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[SunnyThoughts]

Sorry about the above link...this one should work. Just click on the cloud pattern of #18..to magnify.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[corpusbreeze]

One good thing about the Texas coast unlike Florida is there are plenty of "gaps" for it to hit that are nothing but cattle and farm land.

Like Brett from a few years ago...it was a Cat 4 and hit in farmland and ranches. Bothered nobody but the cows.

Hey we love our cows too... I love mine grilled thou.I cant belive this, that a storm whose first letter would be an R would be giving us a scare in September.

[f5]

for a real good time watch the 06Z GFDL run and watch the "CAN NO TAKE ANOTHER HIT" threads ensue. This is going to be one insane week on the boards....

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005091806-eighteen18l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation




cheers,
loon

If a track like that happened,it could put NOLA on the east side of a storm.
Not good no matter how you look at it. I hope this system just heads into Mexico.(heck, they don't need it either, but the gulf coast can't get hit again.)

Mexico has had enough with Emily, Bret, Jose, and Gert, if TD 18 HAD to hit land I hope it goes into Kenedy County, TX - one of the most rural coastal counties along the Gulf Coast.

[f5]

for a real good time watch the 06Z GFDL run and watch the "CAN NO TAKE ANOTHER HIT" threads ensue. This is going to be one insane week on the boards....

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005091806-eighteen18l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation




cheers,
loon

If a track like that happened,it could put NOLA on the east side of a storm.
Not good no matter how you look at it. I hope this system just heads into Mexico.(heck, they don't need it either, but the gulf coast can't get hit again.)

Mexico has had enough with Emily, Bret, Jose, and Gert, if TD 18 HAD to hit land I hope it goes into Kenedy County, TX - one of the most rural coastal counties along the Gulf Coast.

[f5]

for a real good time watch the 06Z GFDL run and watch the "CAN NO TAKE ANOTHER HIT" threads ensue. This is going to be one insane week on the boards....

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005091806-eighteen18l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Bret,Jose,Gert were not 175 mph Katrinas those were 40-50 mph TS that went inland a dissipated


cheers,
loon

If a track like that happened,it could put NOLA on the east side of a storm.
Not good no matter how you look at it. I hope this system just heads into Mexico.(heck, they don't need it either, but the gulf coast can't get hit again.)

Mexico has had enough with Emily, Bret, Jose, and Gert, if TD 18 HAD to hit land I hope it goes into Kenedy County, TX - one of the most rural coastal counties along the Gulf Coast.

[f5]

sorry about my accidential overposting but Jose,Gert and Bret were not 175 mph Katrinas they were 40-50 mph TS that dissipated quickly .But Emily is a different story she was a major that form in the wrong part of the season.

[cajungal]

I will definitly be watching it. I live an hour south west of New Orleans. And you never know the ridge could weaken and bend it back towards us. Because even if a storm ends up in southwestern Louisiana, it put us in the bad part of the storm. We got severe flooding for Allison when she hit Houston. And in the beginning, I remember clearly that Lili was supposed to be a Texas storm. She ended up hitting New Iberia instead. And the levees broke just south of Houma causing massive flooding and we had lots of tornados in Terrebonne Parish. Andrew came in just west of here around Morgan City, and we got slammed here.