oneness wrote:Mac wrote:oneness wrote:Mac wrote:The only reason that we are seeing more of them over the past few years is because we are seeing more intense hurricanes.
Does the NHC or Met Office reports/stats from other tropical countries suggest that? If there are more hurricanes in a year or during a more active (5 to 10 year) cycle, then the chances are that more of those storms which form will be intense (in total numbers of 3, 4 and 5 storms), but that does not mean all hurricanes are becoming generally more intense.
Is that what you meant?
When you look at the numbers extrapolated over time, we are not in a cycle of seeing more hurricanes. We are in a cycle of seeing more intense hurricanes. The biggest factor attributing to this trend seems to be a mean increase in SSTs of about 1 degree. That doesn't seem like a lot, but the ocean is capable of storing an extreme amount of heat energy. It is this energy which hurricanes feed off of. The past few years we have seen a lot of hurricanes, but we have also seen a lot of intense hurricanes. As you see more intense hurricanes, you'll see more annular hurricanes (since only the most intense of hurricanes become annular). But whether we are in a cycle of more intense hurricanes or whether this is a continuing trend remains to be seen.
But stats show the US clearly is within a new cycle of more hurricanes, in recent years.
Such multi-year cycles are not new and these cycles are recognised to occur all over the world.
I doubt reliable stats, with sufficient data even exist from modern times (say since 1960, where data availability and precision is reasonably good) to conclude that there has been a general increase in the intensity of hurricanes (though you did mention extrapolation).
Who, or what agency is it that specifically presents data which establishes this, beyond question? Do you have a report, which you could link? Thanks.
I have recently read a couple of research articles regarding the reason for the increase in hurricanes/intensity of hurricanes. The reports basically concluded that the occurence of stronger hurricanes was due to higher SSTs of about 1 degree on average. No big surprise there, since we all know that SSTs are the primary diet of hurricanes.
Here's the thing you have to understand about cycles vs. trends. It is impossible to know whether we are in a normal cycle or if we are in the midst of a trend at this point. If it's a cycle, it will eventually end. Only then will we be able to definitively say it was a cycle. Yes, there have been such cycles in the past. But that does not necessarily mean we are in a cycle now. If the global warming theorists are correct, then we are in a trend that will only continue--and presumably increase--in the future. If the cyclical theorists are correct, then this cycle will eventually end.
Personally, I believe we will see a compromise. I believe global warming is affecting hurricane intensity (but I am not yet convinced that human behavior, rather than normal global cycles, are to blame), and that we are in the midst of a cycle. In other words, I believe we will see cycles of more intense hurricanes, with each decade-long cycle or so producing more intense hurricanes than the previous cycle. I believe this will continue to occur as long as global warming continues. How long global warming continues will likely depend upon whether it's occuring because of natural or man-made phenomena.
If I happen accross those articles I referenced earlier, I'll provide links. I don't have time to search for them right now.
