What if Katrina had hit New Orleans?

[sunny]

i cant believe there is a what if thread

I'm with you.

[superfly]

Superfly, maybe you should look into studies before telling me what I know and what I don't know. I have lived here all my life and have worked in New Orleans all my life. I know more about that city than many. Yes, a western storm would push water onto the northshore, however, the entire lake would rise. The current would be going to the northshore, but again, the entire lake would rise. Oh, and this was NOT the worst case scenario...by far. Yes, it was bad, but not the worst. There was already a HUGE thread on this so I don't feel like starting another. Before you decide what you think would happen if a storm hit just to the west of New Orleans, do a little research, and you'll see what I'm talking about.

I live in New Orleans, idiot. I said the worst case scenario approaching from the angle that it did, not the worst case scenario period. Learn to read. Sure, the overall lake would rise as the storm approached pushing water into the northshore, but as the storm passed to the west, the WESTERLY winds would help push the water BACK into the Gulf LOWERING the lake water level.

[curtadams]

[quote="skysummit
How can you even think about saying that? With Katrina, New Orleans was flooded from lake waters that flow through the 17th street canal and numerous other canals. If a storm would go just to the west of New Orleans, not only would the Lake continue to fill up and overtop or breach those same levees, but all the marshes to the south would be filled, and water would constantly be pushed up the Miss. River...eventually overtopping those levees. Water would not only come in from the Lake, but it would come in from all directions. Not to mention the Westbank would get completely flooded also.[/quote]

Bad for the Westbank. Yes. But not for NO, which is overwhelmingly Eastbank. The Mississippi river is already high, and water seeks its own level - so not that much water will go up the Mississippi. Further, NO is almost 100 miles as the river flows from the outlets. And those levees are enormous - far, far larger than the Lake levees. A west track also puts far less strain on the lake levees. First, it doesn't scoop any more water into the lake because water coming from the deep gulf has to go over 50 miles to the east of NO to get around the Delta. Second, when the storm hits the winds blow the engorged lake north and east - onto suburbs, but not NO. Net result is that NO proper will see far less flooding on a west track. The actual track is almost as bad as it can get for lake flooding - other tracks either put less water in the Lake or, once it's there, blow it somewhere else.

[superfly]

For argument's sake, let's divide what happens with the surge before, during, and after the eye passes either to the west or east of New Orleans approaching from the south.

1. BEFORE THE EYE PASSES NEW ORLEANS:

A storm passing to the east of New Orleans is CLOSER to Lake Bourgne and thus there will be a STRONGER surge pushing water from the Gulf into the Lake than a storm passing to the west of New Orleans.

2. DURING THE TIME THE EYE PASSES NEW ORLEANS:

A storm passing to the east of New Orleans will push Lake water DIRECTLY toward New Orleans. A storm passing to the west of New Orleans will push Lake water into the NORTHSHORE.

3. AFTER THE EYE PASSES NEW ORLEANS:

If the storm passes to the east of New Orleans, NOLA will be in the SSW quad thus experiencing northwesterly winds pushing lake water into New Orleans. If the storm passes to the west of New Orleans, NOLA will be in the SSE quad and will be experiencing southwesterly winds which will STILL push water into Northshore and/or BACK INTO THE GULF.

In ALL three times BEFORE, DURING, and AFTER the storm, New Orleans will be better off SURGE-WISE with a storm passing to the west rather than the east.

[brunota2003]

1. BEFORE THE EYE PASSES NEW ORLEANS:

A storm passing to the east of New Orleans is CLOSER to Lake Bourgne and thus there will be a STRONGER surge pushing water from the Gulf into the Lake than a storm passing to the west of New Orleans.

Sorry, i just had to do this, so water has now learned how to go against the wind? if so, whats next? water going uphill by its self???

[superfly]

1. BEFORE THE EYE PASSES NEW ORLEANS:

A storm passing to the east of New Orleans is CLOSER to Lake Bourgne and thus there will be a STRONGER surge pushing water from the Gulf into the Lake than a storm passing to the west of New Orleans.

Sorry, i just had to do this, so water has now learned how to go against the wind? if so, whats next? water going uphill by its self???

What are you talking about?

[brunota2003]

1. BEFORE THE EYE PASSES NEW ORLEANS:

A storm passing to the east of New Orleans is CLOSER to Lake Bourgne and thus there will be a STRONGER surge pushing water from the Gulf into the Lake than a storm passing to the west of New Orleans.

Sorry, i just had to do this, so water has now learned how to go against the wind? if so, whats next? water going uphill by its self???

What are you talking about?

Read what u wrote, if the storm was to the east, the winds would be from the north, thus not pushing water up the river, but acutally keeping water from going up the river, u reversed it on accident, thats all...

[superfly]

1. BEFORE THE EYE PASSES NEW ORLEANS:

A storm passing to the east of New Orleans is CLOSER to Lake Bourgne and thus there will be a STRONGER surge pushing water from the Gulf into the Lake than a storm passing to the west of New Orleans.

Sorry, i just had to do this, so water has now learned how to go against the wind? if so, whats next? water going uphill by its self???

What are you talking about?

Read what u wrote, if the storm was to the east, the winds would be from the north, thus not pushing water up the river, but acutally keeping water from going up the river, u reversed it on accident, thats all...

Who was talking about the river? I sure wasn't.

[brunota2003]

1. BEFORE THE EYE PASSES NEW ORLEANS:

A storm passing to the east of New Orleans is CLOSER to Lake Bourgne and thus there will be a STRONGER surge pushing water from the Gulf into the Lake than a storm passing to the west of New Orleans.

Sorry, i just had to do this, so water has now learned how to go against the wind? if so, whats next? water going uphill by its self???

What are you talking about?

Read what u wrote, if the storm was to the east, the winds would be from the north, thus not pushing water up the river, but acutally keeping water from going up the river, u reversed it on accident, thats all...

Who was talking about the river? I sure wasn't.

never mind, you said that the water in the gulf would be pushed up, you reversed it, thats all...

[superfly]

Who was talking about the river? I sure wasn't.

never mind, you said that the water in the gulf would be pushed up, you reversed it, thats all...

I didn't reverse anything, you just don't know what you're talking about.

I honestly thought that it was pretty self-explanatory, but obviously I overestimate some people. Here's a simple diagram, from which path would "point A" receive the highest winds and thus the highest surge into the Lake? Pretty damn obvious and if it's not to some people then I give up.

[f5]

i heard the worst case scenario was if the eye passes east,west,directy over.i don't know i heard different scenarios.but as far as money wise this was the worst case scenario.beacuse now most of the city is gonna have to be bulldozed.

[superfly]

i heard the worst case scenario was if the eye passes east,west,directy over.i don't know i heard different scenarios.but as far as money wise this was the worst case scenario.beacuse now most of the city is gonna have to be bulldozed.

Worst case scenario from a storm approaching from the south is to the east. Worst case scenario from a storm approaching from the SE is directly over or to the east. Worst case scenario from a storm approaching from the SW would be directly over or to the west.

[brunota2003]

Who was talking about the river? I sure wasn't.

never mind, you said that the water in the gulf would be pushed up, you reversed it, thats all...

I didn't reverse anything, you just don't know what you're talking about.

I honestly thought that it was pretty self-explanatory, but obviously I overestimate some people. Here's a simple diagram, from which path would "point A" receive the highest winds and thus the highest surge into the Lake? Pretty damn obvious and if it's not to some people then I give up.
1. BEFORE THE EYE PASSES NEW ORLEANS:

A storm passing to the east of New Orleans is CLOSER to Lake Bourgne and thus there will be a STRONGER surge pushing water from the Gulf into the Lake than a storm passing to the west of New Orleans.

NO, the winds would not allow the water to pour into there, even if it does, the back side would push the water back out, thus equaling everything out...

[MGC]

The Superdome is about 300 feet high. So, I'm sure the top of the dome had Cat-3 winds with gusts to Cat 4 because of its height. Yep, had Katrina tracked 50 miles futher west the 30+ foot surge would have topped the levees. Of course the levees would have failed before the max surge arrived just like they did......MGC

[DramaQueen]

For many people this was the "worst" case scenerio, or the "big one" if you will. To argue about this tragic event is futile and I can not believe this board has come to this. How do you know what would be worse or what a hurricane could or couldnt do until it happens? There are so many varibles involved in a storm of this magnitude that NOBODY can pin down the events of it until it has happened. Obviously we can make educated guesses as we have done here, but to argue about it does not make your point any more valid. Like I said this is the worst case scenario for those who have lost their homes, a loved one or their job.... For many THIS IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO.... Imagine losing everything including a loved one it doesnt get any worse then this..

[brunota2003]

Whatever, I tried to point out what i thought was a simple mistake, and give him my point of view, and it evoluved into this full fledged thing...

[superfly]

NO, the winds would not allow the water to pour into there, even if it does, the back side would push the water back out, thus equaling everything out...

For your own sake, you should stop posting before you make yourself look dumber than you already do. Where do you think the elevated lake water level comes from? Out of thin air?

[brunota2003]

NO, the winds would not allow the water to pour into there, even if it does, the back side would push the water back out, thus equaling everything out...

For your own sake, you should stop posting before you make yourself look dumber than you already do. Where do you think the elevated lake water level comes from? Out of thin air?

Do you think you have to be so mean to a 15 year old? i was just trying to show you my point of view, ascuse the crap out of me for at least trying...

[superfly]

NO, the winds would not allow the water to pour into there, even if it does, the back side would push the water back out, thus equaling everything out...

For your own sake, you should stop posting before you make yourself look dumber than you already do. Where do you think the elevated lake water level comes from? Out of thin air?

Do you think you have to be so mean to a 15 year old? i was just trying to show you my point of view, ascuse the crap out of me for at least trying...

You're free to share your point of view, sure. I'm also free to say that you're wrong.

[clueless newbie]

Are there any objective/verifiable numbers how high the water was in the Missisipi river in the LO area (i.e. how much more to overtop the river leevees)?

I can imagine with a Katrina going to the west of NO that 30ft surge just blocking the river water and Missisipi deciding to fill up those 'holes' around itself.