GFS 12z: No dropsondes were initiated in 12z-run

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johngaltfla
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#21 Postby johngaltfla » Wed Oct 19, 2005 6:15 pm

linkerweather wrote:
melhow wrote:
linkerweather wrote:
StormFury wrote:Could I guys tell me what you are all talking about in ENGLISH? From what I am hearing, the GFS data could have been screwed up (human error), resulting in screwed up GFDL, BAMM, and BAMD models. I think there could have been human error because of what you guys said about there being no dropsonde (however it's spelled).

As a result, I bet that the new GFS, GFDL, BAMM, and BAMD model runs will once again point to Florida in the next run, assuming that there are dropsondes and no human or computer screw ups.

Also, I've seen Wilma drifting to the NW in the last few frames...maybe she is starting to make that northward move. Not convinced? Place your finger at the initial position of the eye...then see where the eye ends up!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


You will have to wait until the 00z runs of the GFS and ultimately the GFDL which will come out around 1:50 am EDT. The 18z runs are an extension of the 12z runs (with some added data) but based off the 12z data. That is often why you don't find any monumental info coming out of 06z or 18z model runs


Hey Josh,

Model question - do you think that the last GFDL was a lousy run based off of skewed data, or do you think that it could "hold water", so to speak?


Thats impossible to say for sure. I mean the GFDL uses the GFS grid so if the GFS was Bad, which it may even be, just some data was alledgedly left out, then the gfdl would be bad also. We really have to wait until the 00z run unfortunately IMO


Mr. Linker, just curious; won't the more detailed or accurate model runs occur after the NOAA high altitude drops are combined with the normal recon drops?

That wouldn't be until 20.10.2005 0000Z runs if I'm not mistaken?
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#22 Postby linkerweather » Wed Oct 19, 2005 6:28 pm

Well sure the data will be more detailed but it (00z run) will also be an indication of whether or not the 12z was bad. At this point it is hard to say one way or another.
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#23 Postby johngaltfla » Wed Oct 19, 2005 6:57 pm

linkerweather wrote:Well sure the data will be more detailed but it (00z run) will also be an indication of whether or not the 12z was bad. At this point it is hard to say one way or another.


Then I'm going to stick with my gut instinct on this one and feel that the window is still between Tampa Bay and Chokoloskee. I'm going to suck it up, wait until it begins the turn. Then and only then should we get a clear idea of what is going on, IMHO.
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#24 Postby shaggy » Wed Oct 19, 2005 7:01 pm

http://weather.net-waves.com/td24.php


the new GFDL track seems to be back in line with its previous runs from the last day or so.The stall it showed today must have been a hiccup!
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