To Those Who Said 2004 Could Not Be Repeated In Florida

[Andrew92]

and 2006 better be nice and quiet. I'm not -removed- either!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You'll probably get your wish because I think it's expected by some to be an El Nino year. However, 2007 could be a problem because La Ninas sometimes follow El Ninos and, if memory serves me correctly, 1995 was a La Nina year.

According to a member here (El Nino), neutral ENSO conditions are expected through 2009.

Sorry to be frank, but who said that? And is it possible to predict even ENSO conditions four years out like that?

-Andrew92

Check out this thread and go to the last post:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=76713

Thank you! Still not totally sold on that long of a forecast, however. Guess I'll just have to wait and see.

-Andrew92

[DCA]

wilma supposedly had winds of 125mph but no reporting station on land recorded sustained over 100 that i have seen so she was probably not a true cat 3 at landfall.But overall florida is having a rough stretch but thats what happens when you are the only point of land between the GOM and the atlantic!

From NHC's upgrade of Andrew: Hurricane Andrew was a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale at time of landfall, with Category 5 winds occurring in a small area on the immediate coast having open exposure to Biscayne Bay.

Cat. 3 winds in Wilma most likely occured somewhere south of Everglades City having open exposure to the Gulf of Mexico or Florida Bay. Problem is that very few humans populate the area (the area is part of the federally protected Everglades National Park) and aenonometers are unlikely to be so fortuitously located as to measure the strongest winds at landfall.

[/quote]

[quandary]

I still would not say that 2004 was repeated in Florida. 2004 was a year of endless terror in Florida. Starting with Charley, the state got hit thoroughly by 3 major hurricanes (or substantial effects) and 1 almost major hurricane. Frances was big, and slow and rainy and windy and had a 60 mi wide eye and a pressure for most Cat 3s. So effectively, 2004 was 4 major hurricanes into Florida.

2005 was not 4 major hurricanes. Dennis was a Cat 3, but not a terrible Cat 3. Wilma was quite bad, analogous in many ways to Charley. However, you're still short 1 1/2 majors. Florida did not live in a constant state of fear this year. Well... the whole US did, but... Rita was a weak Cat 1 that affected basically only the lower keys (only counting Florida, not what it did to Texas). Katrina was a nasty one, but she was also only a Cat 1 (again, in Florida).

2005 is far far worse than 2004 in general, of course and 2004 was the worst year in history up until this year. Here's hoping the pattern doesn't continue.

[WxGuy1]

and 2006 better be nice and quiet. I'm not -removed- either!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You'll probably get your wish because I think it's expected by some to be an El Nino year. However, 2007 could be a problem because La Ninas sometimes follow El Ninos and, if memory serves me correctly, 1995 was a La Nina year.

According to a member here (El Nino), neutral ENSO conditions are expected through 2009.

I HIGHLY HIGHLY HIGHLY doubt the validity of such a forecast.

[alicia-w]

it isnt over yet.