Forecaster Colby wrote:Downdraft wrote:DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Monday starts the wild week. The jet stream will take an unusual dip south and pick up Gamma. By Monday afternoon, Gamma will be racing along the northern Cuba coast and by evening will slam into South Florida with heavy rains and tropical-storm-force winds. On that track, places like Miami and Fort Lauderdale will have winds gusting up to 60 mph and rainfall of 4-6 inches. The AccuWeather.com Meteorologists want to stress that while the track of Gamma is close to Wilma, the impact of Gamma on South Florida should not be as severe as Wilma, but nevertheless, winds up to 60 mph can cause damage and power outages.
And today is Sunday and it's 3:20 PM EST and I'm looking at the sat pics and reading the discussions. Hmmm and Accuweather wants to replace the NHC huh? Winds up to 60 mph and power outages? Interesting very interesting.
The NHC got it wrong too
No, they didn't.
See the NHC seems to realize something Accuweather does not. There is always a tremendous amount of uncertanity with tropical cyclones...so they have been communicating that all along....lets see an example:
3:00PM Friday (When advisories were reinitiated):
THE GFS AND NOGAPS
FORECAST A VERY WEAK GAMMA TO TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WHILE THE GFDL BRINGS A STRONGER GAMMA TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE ON THE GFDL ON THE BASIS THAT IT HAS A STRONGER SYSTEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF GAMMA DOES NOT HOLD TOGETHER AS WELL AS FORECAST THE MOTION COULD BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS.
Which of course is exactly what happened.
I'm looking outside right now...and it sure doesn't look like accuweather's Michael Brown-like call is going to happen.
MW
