Hurricane Alley 2006 season Landfall Forecast

[senorpepr]

As the season approaches, I'll release my final seasonal forecast.

[cycloneye]

Here are senorpepr's long-awaited 2006 Seasonal Forecast:

1) Someone along a coast in the Atlantic basin will be hit by a tropical cyclone.

2) If said tropical cyclone strikes a country outside of the United States, the media will under-play the event. Meanwhile, people on Storm2k will hype this to be the worst storm since the last storm to strike there.

3) If said tropical cyclone strikes the United States, regardless of strength--but most notable at 60KT, there will be at least a dozen threads started on Storm2k involving said tropical cyclone's strength at landfall. Locals will tend to nudge the severity up one category. Either way, these threads will continue without any progress in the debate.

4) (notso)Greatone will declare a code ornage on some portion of the United States from a "tropical cyclone" of category one intensity. I put tropical cyclone in quotations because in reality, the said system will only have sustained winds of 25KT and no closed circulation.

5) Young Storm2k-yahoos will stay up all night rooting for a storm to reach category five intensity. They will get mad and/or cry when said storm fails to reach the aforementioned intensity.

6) Referring to prediction number three... the main point that the "locals" will use to nudge the severity of a tropical cyclone up one category will be "recon can't measure the entire cyclone continuously," or "the dropsondes fail."

7) Referring to prediction number five... the same young Storm2k-yahoos will overuse emotions. This will be amplifed from last season because of the reintroduction of the "quick reply" feature.

8) There will be three times as many "Season Cancel" threads or threads regarding SAL than threads involving the upgrading/debate of a tropical cyclone.

9) Somebody, somewhere will become poll-happy.

10) Referring to prediction number nine... the same poll-happy posters will be frequently trout-slapped for making new threads when existing threads already cover the same topic. However, regardless to the frequency or size of said trout-slaps, the poll-happy poster will never grasp this concept.

That was great senorpepr.

Hey folks dont blame me as I posted the graphic.I am with all about this landfall forecast by that private firm named HurricaneAlley many months in advance not being credible.

[weatherwindow]

good morning luis....a climo question for you...how, if at all, do p.r. landfalls corelate enso phase...any significant variation in a la nina?...also curious have you ever taken a look at the incidence of p.r strikes plotted against the longitude of formation, ie are you more likely to see landfall of a system forming east or west of 40degW in the MDR?.... rich

[weatherwindow]

certainly agree that it is next to impossible to assign numerical landfall probabilities at this early date..that said, it would appear that the authors are describing what might be considered a climatological steering solution in the face of a significant la nina event...with the upswing of true cape verde systems(formation east of 40degW), which would tend to occur in a la nina year, early recurvature becomes a higher probability than in seasons in which development is focused further west(say, 2005). further, a stronger eastern atlantic ridge, another la nina prospect, may portend weaker ridging in the western atlantic which in turn reduces the threat to fla and the bahamas. this higher incidence of recurving systems tends to favor carolina landfalls. the higher probability assigned to the lesser antilles, the windwards and, further west, the coast of central america reflect the bimodal distribution of typical cape verde storm tracks. a fairly small percentage of cape verde systems and a higher percentage of more westerly formations tend to sneak under the dominant troughiness around 60degW. given the relative weakness of the western atlantic ridge and the resultant troughiness off the east coast, these low latitude systems entering the caribbean tend to, either, continue west, at a very low latitude, landfalling central america or gain latitude and recurve over eastern cuba and the windward passage. hence, high probability for the islands does not guarantee a higher probability for the GOM. of course, the underlying assumption in the above discussion and the strong argument against these early predictions, is the uncertainty associated with the strenth and average position of the subtropical ridge... ......rich

[MiamiensisWx]

Here are senorpepr's long-awaited 2006 Seasonal Forecast:

1) Someone along a coast in the Atlantic basin will be hit by a tropical cyclone.

2) If said tropical cyclone strikes a country outside of the United States, the media will under-play the event. Meanwhile, people on Storm2k will hype this to be the worst storm since the last storm to strike there.

3) If said tropical cyclone strikes the United States, regardless of strength--but most notable at 60KT, there will be at least a dozen threads started on Storm2k involving said tropical cyclone's strength at landfall. Locals will tend to nudge the severity up one category. Either way, these threads will continue without any progress in the debate.

4) (notso)Greatone will declare a code ornage on some portion of the United States from a "tropical cyclone" of category one intensity. I put tropical cyclone in quotations because in reality, the said system will only have sustained winds of 25KT and no closed circulation.

5) Young Storm2k-yahoos will stay up all night rooting for a storm to reach category five intensity. They will get mad and/or cry when said storm fails to reach the aforementioned intensity.

6) Referring to prediction number three... the main point that the "locals" will use to nudge the severity of a tropical cyclone up one category will be "recon can't measure the entire cyclone continuously," or "the dropsondes fail."

7) Referring to prediction number five... the same young Storm2k-yahoos will overuse emotions. This will be amplifed from last season because of the reintroduction of the "quick reply" feature.

8) There will be three times as many "Season Cancel" threads or threads regarding SAL than threads involving the upgrading/debate of a tropical cyclone.

9) Somebody, somewhere will become poll-happy.

10) Referring to prediction number nine... the same poll-happy posters will be frequently trout-slapped for making new threads when existing threads already cover the same topic. However, regardless to the frequency or size of said trout-slaps, the poll-happy poster will never grasp this concept.

Oh... I'm sorry if I have used too many emoticons or have posted too many polls... have I?

[wxmann_91]

Here are senorpepr's long-awaited 2006 Seasonal Forecast:

1) Someone along a coast in the Atlantic basin will be hit by a tropical cyclone.

2) If said tropical cyclone strikes a country outside of the United States, the media will under-play the event. Meanwhile, people on Storm2k will hype this to be the worst storm since the last storm to strike there.

3) If said tropical cyclone strikes the United States, regardless of strength--but most notable at 60KT, there will be at least a dozen threads started on Storm2k involving said tropical cyclone's strength at landfall. Locals will tend to nudge the severity up one category. Either way, these threads will continue without any progress in the debate.

4) (notso)Greatone will declare a code ornage on some portion of the United States from a "tropical cyclone" of category one intensity. I put tropical cyclone in quotations because in reality, the said system will only have sustained winds of 25KT and no closed circulation.

5) Young Storm2k-yahoos will stay up all night rooting for a storm to reach category five intensity. They will get mad and/or cry when said storm fails to reach the aforementioned intensity.

6) Referring to prediction number three... the main point that the "locals" will use to nudge the severity of a tropical cyclone up one category will be "recon can't measure the entire cyclone continuously," or "the dropsondes fail."

7) Referring to prediction number five... the same young Storm2k-yahoos will overuse emotions. This will be amplifed from last season because of the reintroduction of the "quick reply" feature.

8) There will be three times as many "Season Cancel" threads or threads regarding SAL than threads involving the upgrading/debate of a tropical cyclone.

9) Somebody, somewhere will become poll-happy.

10) Referring to prediction number nine... the same poll-happy posters will be frequently trout-slapped for making new threads when existing threads already cover the same topic. However, regardless to the frequency or size of said trout-slaps, the poll-happy poster will never grasp this concept.

Oh... I'm sorry if I have used too many emoticons or have posted too many polls... have I?

No need to apologize. You have been a great member and a rule-abiding one in this community. Unfortunately it is a few others who do this.

[Jim Cantore]

3) If said tropical cyclone strikes the United States, regardless of strength--but most notable at 60KT, there will be at least a dozen threads started on Storm2k involving said tropical cyclone's strength at landfall. Locals will tend to nudge the severity up one category. Either way, these threads will continue without any progress in the debate.

5) Young Storm2k-yahoos will stay up all night rooting for a storm to reach category five intensity. They will get mad and/or cry when said storm fails to reach the aforementioned intensity.

8) There will be three times as many "Season Cancel" threads or threads regarding SAL than threads involving the upgrading/debate of a tropical cyclone.

10) Referring to prediction number nine... the same poll-happy posters will be frequently trout-slapped for making new threads when existing threads already cover the same topic. However, regardless to the frequency or size of said trout-slaps, the poll-happy poster will never grasp this concept.

I'd bet money on all of this happening

however I'm a young storm 2k dude and I aint no yahoo cheering for a cat 5 to hit land

[MiamiensisWx]

I'd bet money on all of this happening

however I'm a young storm 2k dude and I aint no yahoo cheering for a cat 5 to hit land

I agree. Only fools (and there are many I think of, but I will not mention) would want that to happen. After this season, who wants any storm AT ALL to hit land?

[Extremeweatherguy]

3) If said tropical cyclone strikes the United States, regardless of strength--but most notable at 60KT, there will be at least a dozen threads started on Storm2k involving said tropical cyclone's strength at landfall. Locals will tend to nudge the severity up one category. Either way, these threads will continue without any progress in the debate.

5) Young Storm2k-yahoos will stay up all night rooting for a storm to reach category five intensity. They will get mad and/or cry when said storm fails to reach the aforementioned intensity.

8) There will be three times as many "Season Cancel" threads or threads regarding SAL than threads involving the upgrading/debate of a tropical cyclone.

10) Referring to prediction number nine... the same poll-happy posters will be frequently trout-slapped for making new threads when existing threads already cover the same topic. However, regardless to the frequency or size of said trout-slaps, the poll-happy poster will never grasp this concept.

I'd bet money on all of this happening

however I'm a young storm 2k dude and I aint no yahoo cheering for a cat 5 to hit land

I'd bet money too. These things will definitely happen.

[MiamiensisWx]

I'd bet money too. These things will definitely happen.

I completely agree. I would be stunned if those things did not happen.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Personally, I opine that they are fairly accurate inasmuch as I expect an increase in Atlantic Coast strikes this year in comparison to those of the recent past. At that point, I shall wait and see for the remainder.

A2K

[senorpepr]

Here are senorpepr's long-awaited 2006 Seasonal Forecast:

<snip>

Oh... I'm sorry if I have used too many emoticons or have posted too many polls... have I?

No need to apologize. You have been a great member and a rule-abiding one in this community. Unfortunately it is a few others who do this.

Right... as wxmann_91 said, no need to apologize. Your name doesn't even come to mind regarding this topic. Actually, I wasn't speaking about any person specifically.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Predictions:
1. A tropical wave will be somewhere in the atlantic basin sometime in
2006
2. In some place during the entire season, where the water is warm and the shear is low, a tropical cyclone will form
3. This enigmatic tropical cyclone will spin in a counterclockwise fashion
4. A five-day track will be put out for this cyclone
5. The cyclone will contain wind and rain
6. The aforementioned tropical cyclone will manifest its tropical essence sometime
between now and the specific time period of Christmas 2006.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Predictions:
1. A tropical wave will be somewhere in the atlantic basin sometime in
2006
2. In some place during the entire season, where the water is warm and the shear is low, a tropical cyclone will form
3. This enigmatic tropical cyclone will spin in a counterclockwise fashion
4. A five-day track will be put out for this cyclone
5. The cyclone will contain wind and rain
6. The aforementioned tropical cyclone will manifest its tropical essence sometime
between now and the specific time period of Christmas 2006.

I have a feeling your predictions will be 100% right. lol

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

They are all funny because they are true LMAO

[HURAKAN]

Making such a prediction this early is basically nonsense. It's like predicting when Fidel Castro will die.

[Scorpion]

I am rooting for Cat 5's, but hope they weaken before landfall.

[MiamiensisWx]

I am rooting for Cat 5's, but hope they weaken before landfall.

That dosn't surprise me.

[terstorm1012]

Predictions:
1. A tropical wave will be somewhere in the atlantic basin sometime in
2006
2. In some place during the entire season, where the water is warm and the shear is low, a tropical cyclone will form
3. This enigmatic tropical cyclone will spin in a counterclockwise fashion
4. A five-day track will be put out for this cyclone
5. The cyclone will contain wind and rain
6. The aforementioned tropical cyclone will manifest its tropical essence sometime
between now and the specific time period of Christmas 2006.

I predict a career in comedy for Tampa Bay Hurricane

[Weatherfreak14]

Here are senorpepr's long-awaited 2006 Seasonal Forecast:

1) Someone along a coast in the Atlantic basin will be hit by a tropical cyclone.

2) If said tropical cyclone strikes a country outside of the United States, the media will under-play the event. Meanwhile, people on Storm2k will hype this to be the worst storm since the last storm to strike there.

3) If said tropical cyclone strikes the United States, regardless of strength--but most notable at 60KT, there will be at least a dozen threads started on Storm2k involving said tropical cyclone's strength at landfall. Locals will tend to nudge the severity up one category. Either way, these threads will continue without any progress in the debate.

4) (notso)Greatone will declare a code ornage on some portion of the United States from a "tropical cyclone" of category one intensity. I put tropical cyclone in quotations because in reality, the said system will only have sustained winds of 25KT and no closed circulation.

5) Young Storm2k-yahoos will stay up all night rooting for a storm to reach category five intensity. They will get mad and/or cry when said storm fails to reach the aforementioned intensity.

6) Referring to prediction number three... the main point that the "locals" will use to nudge the severity of a tropical cyclone up one category will be "recon can't measure the entire cyclone continuously," or "the dropsondes fail."

7) Referring to prediction number five... the same young Storm2k-yahoos will overuse emotions. This will be amplifed from last season because of the reintroduction of the "quick reply" feature.

8) There will be three times as many "Season Cancel" threads or threads regarding SAL than threads involving the upgrading/debate of a tropical cyclone.

9) Somebody, somewhere will become poll-happy.

10) Referring to prediction number nine... the same poll-happy posters will be frequently trout-slapped for making new threads when existing threads already cover the same topic. However, regardless to the frequency or size of said trout-slaps, the poll-happy poster will never grasp this concept.

I'm sure that's not overusing emoticons

Nah, Maybe a little more can be used