a question for the board

[MGC]

Hurricanes Betsy and Fredrick were both intensifying as they approached the coast. Both of these hurricanes would have reached Cat-4 had they not hit land IMO. I think the key to an intense hurricane maintaing or increasing in intensity is its direction as it approaches the NGOM coast. It is apparant that a hurricane on a north or northeast path has a high probility of weakening as is evident by many hurricanes of the past. I have noticed that hurricanes on a NW path have not weakened (Betsy, Fredrick, Elena) as they approached the coast. wxman57 makes excellent points on ventilation and shear. I reject the theory of SST and lack of ocean heat content as the paramount cause of weakening of major hurricanes as they approach the coast. Angle of incidence relative to upper air contitions IMO are the factor that caused the recent hurricanes to weaken as they approched the coast. I am afraid that many people will wrongly conclude that it is inevetable that a major hurricane will weaken as it approches the coast based on the past few hurricanes that have weakened. This mentality, simular to the Camile mentality that existed prior to Katrina, may prove deadly in the near future.......MGC

[Jim Cantore]

Don't forget: Even though lately we've been seeing alot of surge damage from weakening behemoth Gulf monsters, and the examples of Dennis and Charley seem to tell us that a recently intensified hurricane will not carry nearly as much storm surge, Hurricane Audrey bombed from a Category 2 to a Category 4 only a few hours before making landfall, and brought a devastating 10-foot surge into Cameron, Louisiana.

Audrey is a perfect example of it shaping up

however we have no idea of the specific conditions then

[Scorpion]

Katrina should prove that even if the hurricane weakens that you will still likely die if you stay on the coast.

[WindRunner]

Or you could have the craziest idea of them all:


The major hurricanes create waves so large that in between the gigantic waves are actually areas of dry land (which could be possible on the shelf), making the environment under the hurricane much less favorable, and almost like an early landfall.


Of course that would involve the energy of the waves being able to travel through the ground, which know can't happen

[mike815]

oh why not

[EDR1222]

I would think that it is just a matter of timing. What if Rita or Katrina had begun their rapid intensification 24 hours later than when they did? They could have been rapidly intensifying as they approached land. As WXman57 said, the conditions have to be almost perfect and even when they are they do not normally last very long.
I think that evidence is in the fact that there have been only 3 landfalling category 5 hurricanes recorded in United States history. Everything has to come together at just the right time. It does seem like it happens mostly with westward or west-northwestward moving storms. Perhaps with Camille, everything just came together as she came ashore. The pressure readings were extremely low as she came ashore and the winds extremely high well inland from where she made landfall. In my opinion, it is hard to argue that she was less than what the records show when she came in.