New England?

[whereverwx]

I'm not even sure a cat. 5 could hit the Carolinas in theory. What does everyone here think?

Possible, definitely!!! Probable? Not nearly as easy as some may think mainly due to the heat content of the ocean below needed to sustain a Cat 5. North of the 30º latitude that heat content tends to be shallow(I think).

I don't know, IMO, I believe it could happen. In 1959, Super Typhoon Vera made landfall in Japan at 32.20º latitude.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am predicting a brush with a weakening tropical storm this year and nothing more. There may be isolated areas that get TS force winds, but I do not feel that the doomsday storm will be heading your way this year.

[Jim Cantore]

Hugo has a legitimate case for an upgrade to a cat 5 on reanalysis

In my mind, 145 at the lowest

[vbhoutex]

Calamity, typhoons in the WPAC and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin are in two different environments. Just because it has happened in the WPAC does not necessarily suggest it could happen on the East Coast. I haven't said it can't happen, but I do think it is highly unlikely. Even in the best of environments it is difficult for a CAT5 hurricane to landfall as a CAT5. We have seen that within the last year. Through recorded hurricane history in the Atlantic basin there are 3 CAT5 hurricanes that have made landfall.

[Derek Ortt]

only 3 for the Atlantic Basin?

Do you mean the US mainland?

[whereverwx]

Calamity, typhoons in the WPAC and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin are in two different environments. Just because it has happened in the WPAC does not necessarily suggest it could happen on the East Coast. I haven't said it can't happen, but I do think it is highly unlikely. Even in the best of environments it is difficult for a CAT5 hurricane to landfall as a CAT5. We have seen that within the last year. Through recorded hurricane history in the Atlantic basin there are 3 CAT5 hurricanes that have made landfall.

Oh, ok, thanks!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Speaking of the Carolinas. Here is an interesting link I found to a general PDF about North Carolina Hurricanes:


http://n4tab.com/nchurricane/NCHurricanePower_HAM.pdf

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hey Calamity. Actually the fact is that no one really knows just how strong a hurricane can be when it makes landfall in any given area. Our historical records are not that precise before 1900, and especially before the latter half of 19th century (1800s). Perhaps a cat 5, or even a few of them, made landfall on the coastlines of Carolinas and/or New England in the past 500 years (or in the past 1000). If so they would be incredibly rare and terrifying events indeed. Bottom line no one can rule it out with 100% certainty, even if it is an extremely improbable event.

[vbhoutex]

only 3 for the Atlantic Basin?

Do you mean the US mainland?

3 landfalling CAT 5's which is what she asked about I believe. I know we had that many CAT 5's last year in the basin.

[Jim Cantore]

I've changed my forcast

1 hurricane and a tropical storm

[Derek Ortt]

there have been more than 3 landfalling 5's in the atlantic. 1928 at Pr, Janet, Gilbert are 3 additional ones I am familiar with, possibly David as well

[AussieMark]

What about (if not what intensity were they at landfall)

Anita of 1977

Edith of 1971

Hattie of 1961

[vbhoutex]

there have been more than 3 landfalling 5's in the atlantic. 1928 at Pr, Janet, Gilbert are 3 additional ones I am familiar with, possibly David as well

US landfalling Cat 5's. sorry if I didn't make that clear. 1935, Camille, Andrew

[Jim Cantore]

there have been more than 3 landfalling 5's in the atlantic. 1928 at Pr, Janet, Gilbert are 3 additional ones I am familiar with, possibly David as well

off the top of my head

Janet
David
Anita
Gilbert
1928
Camille
1935
Andrew
1947 (grand bahama)

[Jim Cantore]

1947 also hit abaco as a 5