What would have happened if Katrina hit 30 miles west?

[sunny]

Jefferson and St Charles Parishes would be in the shape the Ninth Ward is in. The Mississippi coast would have still gotten a significant surge. The damage would be worst by another 100 billion.....MGC

anything is possible in a speculative scenario; but having been there, I doubt that seriously. The worst part of the surge in the lake would have been directed toward the Northshore, not the southshore, hence I feel less flooding a distinct possibility.. but concede this is sheer speculation on both our parts. Let's hope we never find out.

A2K

Actually, MGC is on the money regarding Jefferson and St. Charles Parishes. Harvey Canal would have gone over, you have Bayou Segnette and Bayou Bourne that would have went over. As it was, these three threatened to go over with Rita.

[Pearl River]

30 miles further west would have put the eye west of the city by 15 to 20 miles. If that situation would have occured, the surge would have been far more severe for the Northshore from Lake Pontchartrain. Winds over the lake would have been from the east, ese, se, s, ssw sw, then wsw. Slidell's surge came from 2 area's. Eastern Slidell came from the Rigolets and the SW part came from the lake after the eye had pushed north of the city.

If it wasn't for the canal levees breaching, the city, except for N.O East would have been high and dry. The actual lake levees and river levees held like they were supposed to.

There are several worst case scenario's for New Orleans, but the overall worst, are those similar to Betsy and the 1947 hurricane. The water gets pushed in from Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Borgne and also the surge comes up the MS river.

My question is this. Why does/did the NWS issue such an absolute and extreme warning? In the history of hurricane tracking, has every one of those possibilities actually occurred someplace? What highrise buildings have actually swayed to the point of collapse??? In what landfalling hurricane have "ALL GABLED ROOFS FAILED"? When have "ALL LOWRISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS" been destroyed? When and where have ALL windows actually blown out? And so on and so on...

Most of this is based on structural engineering studies. My father-in-law is a builder. He just built his own house and told us he was glad he did not put a gabled roof on it or it would have been destroyed.

[ROCK]

WWUS74 KLIX 282139
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

This scenario also brings up another point. With this kind of WARNING, where virtually every word and phrase is in the extreme, it may contribute to the sense of complacency that we often talk about. Almost every sentence in the above warning is provided in absolute terms, bringing the implication that the results WILL be exactly as indicated. As we all know, many of those scenarios did not pan out, consequently folks may think they (or their property) actually survived an event that they did not. Yeah, I know - and everyone here knows - that this warning is based on a CAT 5, but the general public probably does not. And even if it was a CAT 5, would every single one of those scenarios actually happened? How do "they" know with such certainty that these extreme absolute consequences will in fact take place?

My question is this. Why does/did the NWS issue such an absolute and extreme warning? In the history of hurricane tracking, has every one of those possibilities actually occurred someplace? What highrise buildings have actually swayed to the point of collapse??? In what landfalling hurricane have "ALL GABLED ROOFS FAILED"? When have "ALL LOWRISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS" been destroyed? When and where have ALL windows actually blown out? And so on and so on...

Point being, what history is this kind of warning based on - especially when given in such absolute terms? Or, is this kind of warning just supposition based on the SS Scale - which is becoming questionable at best in its accuracy....

Reminds me of the posters here who say "this city will be LEVELED" or "that city will be COMPLETELY DESTROYED", etc. Never have a I seen any footage of an area that truly matches up with the absolute and extremes in this NWS statement....

again this warning was based on 175 mph winds hitting a major city. None of us in our lifetime have seen these types of winds except maybe Andrew who didnt hit a major city. I am sure NWS had its reasons to issue this warning and I am sure they had sound reasoning to do so. IF anything this warning probably saved lives. No harm in that.

[ROCK]

Jefferson and St Charles Parishes would be in the shape the Ninth Ward is in. The Mississippi coast would have still gotten a significant surge. The damage would be worst by another 100 billion.....MGC

anything is possible in a speculative scenario; but having been there, I doubt that seriously. The worst part of the surge in the lake would have been directed toward the Northshore, not the southshore, hence I feel less flooding a distinct possibility.. but concede this is sheer speculation on both our parts. Let's hope we never find out.

A2K

Actually, MGC is on the money regarding Jefferson and St. Charles Parishes. Harvey Canal would have gone over, you have Bayou Segnette and Bayou Bourne that would have went over. As it was, these three threatened to go over with Rita.

agreed.....

[cajungal]

30 miles west would've taken my home away. The locals here were talking about 10 feet of water in downtown Houma if she did not turn. EVERYTHING south of Lake Ponchartrain would be under water....pretty much the Gulf and the Lake would have joined. All windows in the tall buildings in NOLA would be blown out with many, if not all having extensive damage. The rest of the Superdome roof would be gone and the Saints would have their open air stadium they always wanted.

Exactly. And do you know that half of Terrebonne Parish did not evacuate for Katrina, even though there was a mandatory evacation? Lafourche was also under a mandatory evacuation and many refused to leave. Almost my whole family is in Thibodaux in Lafourche Parish. And my grandpa and several of my aunts and uncles did not leave. Look at Hurricane Rita for example. She hit 200 miles to our west and from the air base in East Houma and points south were all under as much as 9 feet of water. Water up to the windows in many homes. It is just a matter of time before Houma is hit head on. For many who have not been to Houma in quite awhile, it has really been built up. All that development along Martin Luther King Blvd could be gone in a matter of hours if a major cane ever hit Terrebonne Parish head on. The whole entire parish even the northern most part which includes my teeny town of Schriever would be under water.

[louise_l]

WWUS74 KLIX 282139
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

This scenario also brings up another point. With this kind of WARNING, where virtually every word and phrase is in the extreme, it may contribute to the sense of complacency that we often talk about. Almost every sentence in the above warning is provided in absolute terms, bringing the implication that the results WILL be exactly as indicated. As we all know, many of those scenarios did not pan out, consequently folks may think they (or their property) actually survived an event that they did not.

In general, from my observations living here I feel that most of the given scenario actually did pan out throughout much of New Orleans, but I do agree with you completely that perhaps instead of the repeated "ALL", they should have said "MOST". Some things were a little better, and some worse (for example, the power outages have lasted over half a year in much of New Orleans, not simply weeks).

Overall, I think they did a pretty good job of predicting the level of effects that I have personally witnessed with my own eyes. Notice the date and time on the statement, though.... 4 PM the day before Katrina made landfall. By that time, it was really too late for anyone to leave (but luckily I was in a motel room in Huntsville by then).

[george_r_1961]

I agree with the wording of that statement. Since intensity forecasts are problematic there is no way of knowing for sure that a hurricane will weaken as it approaches the gulf coast, even though most of them do. Always hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

my guess: at least 90,000 to 125,000 dead

[f5]

Katrina was a 175 mph monster if it wasn't for the trough mostly likely Katrina would of made landfall as a 5 not a 3 and it would of went over NO.and those folks in the superdome would of died form levee overtopping on the mississippi instead of a couple pieces falling off a CAT 5 will blow the entire roof off.Katrina was Hollywood's type of hurricane one that causes catastrophic destruction beyond what the mind can take.

[crabbyhermit]

IMO the true "worst case" would've been had a Katrina storm and subsequent massive surge had been coming in from the EAST, as was the case for the 1947 storm... now THAT would've overtopped the lake's levees on the southshore with a surge that size--undoubtedly. At least that's my opinion.

A2K

I've asked my mother whether she remembers any monster storms coming through NOLA besides Besty (which I am old enough to remember), and she can't. And she was around in 1947 (she's 83, in fact). So what was the intensity of the '47 storm, if anyone knows offhand? I'm assuming there can't have been all that much damage if the old timers in NOLA don't talk about it like they do Betsy.

[LaPlaceFF]

Betsy was before my time.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

The 1947 storm was a category 1 storm. Any storm coming from the east towards Lake Ponchartrain is going to have a very difficult time getting strong due to land interaction on the north side of the circulation.

[JTD]

You know, I don't know if I'm just mis-interpreting the attitude on this board but to me it seems like Katrina is being minimized. I'm sure it's just me but remember that NOAA said Katrina was the worst hurricane to ever strike the U.S., it destroyed New Orleans, it killed thousands and it was an unprecedented catastrophe.

The worst did happen. It just wasn't the worst of the worst.

[LaPlaceFF]

jason0509, well said. Yes it was bad down here (they are STILL finding bodies today!! ) but it easily could have been worse. Maybe I would have been homeless.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Oh let's not go through this "Katrina minimalization" spectacle again. It is painfully obvious to everyone that it was indeed the worst hurricane to ever strike the U.S., just some people cannot accept the strength that it hit the U.S. at for whatever reason.

[ROCK]

Oh let's not go through this "Katrina minimalization" spectacle again. It is painfully obvious to everyone that it was indeed the worst hurricane to ever strike the U.S., just some people cannot accept the strength that it hit the U.S. at for whatever reason.

What strength was that Doc? I presume your talking about the NHC official report. Just asking....

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Yup, category 3

[ROCK]

Yup, category 3

agreed....

[Steve]

I didn't read the whole thread, I will at some point. But one thing that would be different is that all my insurance policies would have paid in full.

Steve

[Audrey2Katrina]

I'd like to add to the debate of MSG and A2K, the winds of the 48 hrs. before landfall along the Miss. and SE. La. coast were from the NE according to the historical data.
So IMHO 30 degrees of more Lat. ie. ( coming in from the Yucatan channel)would have a far greater impact on both coast, including the GNO. SE winds piling up more water in the Ponchatrain basin.

Actually the worst surge for areas like St. Bernard and even the 9th ward, New Orleans East AND Gentilly were from the Lake Borgne basin. NOT the Pontchartrain--although IT came through London Ave. Canal breaches and 17th street. Dr. Gagliano (sp?) (geologist) who predicted this very scenario has asserted this today on the radio. As far as those "winds" the winds that created the monstrous surge were those from much earlier while it was a 5, and that surge did it's worst on areas it hit from directly South... not east... I am not discounting flooding, indeed I feel it would have been catastrophic ON the westbank... but I stick by my estimation that it wouldn't have been as bad "flood" wise on the eastbank.

A2K