This arguement has gone on for 4 months to the day almost so

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How Strong Was Katrina at her Buras Landfall

Under 125mph
7
12%
125mph
13
22%
130mph
11
19%
135mph
14
24%
145mph
7
12%
150mph
2
3%
155mph
2
3%
Over 155mph
1
2%
Hypercane (I couldnt resist)
2
3%
 
Total votes: 59

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#21 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Mar 24, 2006 4:20 pm

Lindaloo wrote:
Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:I still say cat-4! The surge was incredible and the wind damage extensive.



The surge was definitely a CAT5 surge all over the coast.
ok...im going to say this once and this isnt pointed at just you...;) you just had the shorter post for quoting...;) THERE IS NO SUCH LEVEL AS CAT 5, or 4, or 3 surge...surge is surge...it knows no limits or boundaries...and the "surge limit" the NHC sets on the SS scale is based on computer models using an "average" sized hurricane...not a monster sized one...what does it take to drive the point home that there is no limit on how big or small surge can be? every hurricane is different...so is the surge/wind/rain/after the storm/etc impacts...
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#22 Postby Lindaloo » Fri Mar 24, 2006 4:24 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Lindaloo wrote:I still believe they received CAT5 winds when she made first landfall. Just did not look to weaken that much.
I think that is a little extreme. To compare Katrina's wind damage to that of a storm like Andrew is crazy. There is no way the winds were that powerful. Also, concerning the surge, just because it may be an 18+ foot surge does not mean it is a Cat. 5 storm. As we have all learned in these debates...large storms that quickly die to weaker storms will still carry their stronger surge with them for a day or so.


It was just my opinion. You have no idea what crazy is yet.
Last edited by Lindaloo on Fri Mar 24, 2006 4:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#23 Postby Lindaloo » Fri Mar 24, 2006 4:24 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
Lindaloo wrote:
Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:I still say cat-4! The surge was incredible and the wind damage extensive.



The surge was definitely a CAT5 surge all over the coast.
ok...im going to say this once and this isnt pointed at just you...;) you just had the shorter post for quoting...;) THERE IS NO SUCH LEVEL AS CAT 5, or 4, or 3 surge...surge is surge...it knows no limits or boundaries...and the "surge limit" the NHC sets on the SS scale is based on computer models using an "average" sized hurricane...not a monster sized one...what does it take to drive the point home that there is no limit on how big or small surge can be? every hurricane is different...so is the surge/wind/rain/after the storm/etc impacts...



Mike Watkins stated also that Katrina had a CAT5 surge. I take his word for it, thanks!
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#24 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Mar 24, 2006 4:27 pm

Lindaloo wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:
Lindaloo wrote:
Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:I still say cat-4! The surge was incredible and the wind damage extensive.



The surge was definitely a CAT5 surge all over the coast.
ok...im going to say this once and this isnt pointed at just you...;) you just had the shorter post for quoting...;) THERE IS NO SUCH LEVEL AS CAT 5, or 4, or 3 surge...surge is surge...it knows no limits or boundaries...and the "surge limit" the NHC sets on the SS scale is based on computer models using an "average" sized hurricane...not a monster sized one...what does it take to drive the point home that there is no limit on how big or small surge can be? every hurricane is different...so is the surge/wind/rain/after the storm/etc impacts...



Mike Watkins stated also that Katrina had a CAT5 surge. I take his word for it, thanks!
yes...by the SS scale she did...BUT she was alot larger than most hurricanes, including the ones the NHC uses to set the SS, AND from her weakening she did continue to carry that very large surge with her...
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#25 Postby Frank P » Fri Mar 24, 2006 5:00 pm

I really don't care what the winds were with Katrina... the MS Gulf Coast for all practical purposes is pretty much gone, at least every thing on the front beach for several blocks inland and along the bays and rivers...

Camille certainly had much stronger wind than Katrina but Katrina's damage was 3-4 fold greater than Camilles.... if not more... all 13 houses in my neighborhood are destroyed.. Camille destroyed zip, zero, nada.. Camille's winds were in the 150 mph range at least on the MS coast in Biloxi, NO HOMES ON MY BLOCK WERE DESTROYED... Camille put a 22 foot surge in my neighborhood, NO HOMES WERE DESTROYED... Katrina put at least a 26 foot surge in my neighborhood and destroyed everything... of course Katrina's surge pounded my neighborhood for hours... Camille did not last nearly as long... so another very important thing to remember relative to degree of damage is how long the storm will last, which in part is relative to the size of the storm and its forward speed.. Katrina was a large slow moving storm.. Camille was smaller and quicker...

What if the coast was destroyed entirely by wind and NOT water, what difference would it make... it's still gone...

Katrina was such a unique storm that focusing so much on the wind is just wasted effort in my opinion...

Why aren't we trying to understand how a Cat 3 storm brought in perhaps one of the greatest storm surges of recorded weather history...

125 or 130 or even 140 mph winds aren't all that much different in the long haul... but a surge of 10 feet, then 15 feet, then 20 feet, and for Katrina it could have been as high as 35 feet in some areas... well that's a much different ballgame all together... Katrina's surge has changed the way we look at hurricanes, at least for me.
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#26 Postby Jim Cantore » Fri Mar 24, 2006 5:40 pm

Lindaloo wrote:I still believe they received CAT5 winds when she made first landfall. Just did not look to weaken that much.


And the only wind measurements there are from a buoy that floated away during the storm.
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#27 Postby Jim Cantore » Fri Mar 24, 2006 5:48 pm

cat 5 surge cat 4 surge, it doesnt matter. The fact that is even put on the Saffir Simpson scale is a joke in my opinion, theres no need for it. Bigger storms have bigger surge.

A hurricane could make landfall at 170mph and throw up a 23 foot surge

Meanwhile another larger Hurricane can make landfall at 135mph and produce a 25 foot surge

Its pointless to set a number for each category and how many feet of surge its going to produce its unpredictible.
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#28 Postby Ixolib » Fri Mar 24, 2006 5:55 pm

Frank P wrote:I really don't care what the winds were with Katrina... the MS Gulf Coast for all practical purposes is pretty much gone, at least every thing on the front beach for several blocks inland and along the bays and rivers...

Camille certainly had much stronger wind than Katrina but Katrina's damage was 3-4 fold greater than Camilles.... if not more... all 13 houses in my neighborhood are destroyed.. Camille destroyed zip, zero, nada.. Camille's winds were in the 150 mph range at least on the MS coast in Biloxi, NO HOMES ON MY BLOCK WERE DESTROYED... Camille put a 22 foot surge in my neighborhood, NO HOMES WERE DESTROYED... Katrina put at least a 26 foot surge in my neighborhood and destroyed everything... of course Katrina's surge pounded my neighborhood for hours... Camille did not last nearly as long... so another very important thing to remember relative to degree of damage is how long the storm will last, which in part is relative to the size of the storm and its forward speed.. Katrina was a large slow moving storm.. Camille was smaller and quicker...

What if the coast was destroyed entirely by wind and NOT water, what difference would it make... it's still gone...

Katrina was such a unique storm that focusing so much on the wind is just wasted effort in my opinion...

Why aren't we trying to understand how a Cat 3 storm brought in perhaps one of the greatest storm surges of recorded weather history...

125 or 130 or even 140 mph winds aren't all that much different in the long haul... but a surge of 10 feet, then 15 feet, then 20 feet, and for Katrina it could have been as high as 35 feet in some areas... well that's a much different ballgame all together... Katrina's surge has changed the way we look at hurricanes, at least for me.


Well said, Frank. And you are absolutely right about the difference between winds of 120 or 140 and surge of 15 feet or 35 feet. Apples and oranges, and I'll take the wind any day over the water. And your experience in Camille was the exact same here in my neighborhood. Yep, give me the wind any day!!!!!

But, for those who have not experienced the force of surge/storm tide first-hand, and because wind has always been the measure for 'canes, that's why people are so hung up on that aspect. Before Katrina, that was my gig too. Not anymore...

BTW - Drove by your "house" (I think). It is virtually impossible for me to get my bearings along your stretch (or any stretch for that matter) of Hwy 90 anymore. Is your trailer the one that is real close to 90, or is yours further back? I saw the brick wall along the sidewalk, but couldn't tell which one was yours as they're all kinda broken up and mixed together now... Been driving that route since I was 15 (38 years) and I CANNOT figure out what is where!!! :(

Can't believe we're seven months into this thing...
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#29 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Mar 24, 2006 6:52 pm

125 mph.
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#30 Postby Frank P » Fri Mar 24, 2006 7:59 pm

Ixolib wrote:
Frank P wrote:I really don't care what the winds were with Katrina... the MS Gulf Coast for all practical purposes is pretty much gone, at least every thing on the front beach for several blocks inland and along the bays and rivers...

Camille certainly had much stronger wind than Katrina but Katrina's damage was 3-4 fold greater than Camilles.... if not more... all 13 houses in my neighborhood are destroyed.. Camille destroyed zip, zero, nada.. Camille's winds were in the 150 mph range at least on the MS coast in Biloxi, NO HOMES ON MY BLOCK WERE DESTROYED... Camille put a 22 foot surge in my neighborhood, NO HOMES WERE DESTROYED... Katrina put at least a 26 foot surge in my neighborhood and destroyed everything... of course Katrina's surge pounded my neighborhood for hours... Camille did not last nearly as long... so another very important thing to remember relative to degree of damage is how long the storm will last, which in part is relative to the size of the storm and its forward speed.. Katrina was a large slow moving storm.. Camille was smaller and quicker...

What if the coast was destroyed entirely by wind and NOT water, what difference would it make... it's still gone...

Katrina was such a unique storm that focusing so much on the wind is just wasted effort in my opinion...

Why aren't we trying to understand how a Cat 3 storm brought in perhaps one of the greatest storm surges of recorded weather history...

125 or 130 or even 140 mph winds aren't all that much different in the long haul... but a surge of 10 feet, then 15 feet, then 20 feet, and for Katrina it could have been as high as 35 feet in some areas... well that's a much different ballgame all together... Katrina's surge has changed the way we look at hurricanes, at least for me.


Well said, Frank. And you are absolutely right about the difference between winds of 120 or 140 and surge of 15 feet or 35 feet. Apples and oranges, and I'll take the wind any day over the water. And your experience in Camille was the exact same here in my neighborhood. Yep, give me the wind any day!!!!!

But, for those who have not experienced the force of surge/storm tide first-hand, and because wind has always been the measure for 'canes, that's why people are so hung up on that aspect. Before Katrina, that was my gig too. Not anymore...

BTW - Drove by your "house" (I think). It is virtually impossible for me to get my bearings along your stretch (or any stretch for that matter) of Hwy 90 anymore. Is your trailer the one that is real close to 90, or is yours further back? I saw the brick wall along the sidewalk, but couldn't tell which one was yours as they're all kinda broken up and mixed together now... Been driving that route since I was 15 (38 years) and I CANNOT figure out what is where!!! :(

Can't believe we're seven months into this thing...


Hi Ixolib, I see you and I have come to the very same conclusion, along with about 100,000 other coast residents whose homes are gone... give me wind over water any day ... surge water destroyes everything in its path... absolutely NOTHING is safe... with wind you have a chance if your house is well built... doesn't really matter how well you build your house for water... cause its going to get blasted... yeah you could spend a million dollars and build a fortified concrete structure, which MIGHT survive, but everything in it will be trashed... and its going to cost a bundle to rebuild the inside...

Regarding my trailer its the one about 25 feet from the highway.. I have an American flag right in front of it, a fence on the west side, and another flag on my majastic Oak tree...the collapsed brick wall you refer to is my neighbors lot.... its just to the immediate west of my lot... the old man living in his house has never returned... sad.. he loved living on the beach now he is living with relatives in Florida and has yet to see the devastation of his home and our neighborhood... the landscape and historic face of our beautiful coast is gone....

I'm planning to go up another 8 feet on concrete pilings which would put my living floor of my planned house 26.5 feet above sea level... I HOPE that's high enough..... the official Katrina surge for my neighborhood was 25.72 inches (I think that might be a couple of feet low but its only my opinion) ... the highest I could find in Biloxi was near the Beau Rivage at 28 feet and the highest on the coast was 34.9 feet at the Pass... the Diamondhead area, somewhat inland from the immediate coast had surges in the 25 foot range.... I still can't believe it... and I see its catastrophic affects every darn day...
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#31 Postby Ixolib » Fri Mar 24, 2006 8:26 pm

Frank P wrote:I still can't believe it... and I see its catastrophic affects every darn day...


AMEN!!
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#32 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Mar 24, 2006 9:43 pm

Katrina was much bigger than Camille. As I've stated before; I think that storm size, and/or travel speed, should be factors on the SS scale. Just my two cents worth.
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#33 Postby Lindaloo » Fri Mar 24, 2006 11:01 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:Its pointless to set a number for each category and how many feet of surge its going to produce its unpredictible.



It is obvious you did not read the advisories that were put out on Katrina. The surge WAS predicted. Can you please EXPLAIN how they issued this and it was unpredicted as you stated above?



COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.



COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.




http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurri ... 5/KATRINA/
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#34 Postby Jim Cantore » Fri Mar 24, 2006 11:23 pm

Lindaloo wrote:
Hurricane Floyd wrote:Its pointless to set a number for each category and how many feet of surge its going to produce its unpredictible.



It is obvious you did not read the advisories that were put out on Katrina. The surge WAS predicted. Can you please EXPLAIN how they issued this and it was unpredicted as you stated above?



COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.



COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.




http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurri ... 5/KATRINA/


I phrased that wrong, I meant with the "default" Saffir Simpson scale numbers
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#35 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Mar 25, 2006 12:37 am

for hurricanes of cat 3 or lower intensities, flooding (surge and rain) by far is the most destructive impacts.

HOWEVER, once you pass the cat 3 threshhold, surge becomes a meaningless variable overall. The last 3 cat 4's and 5's to hit the USA (Andrew, Iniki, and Charley) had insignificant surges (except Andrew, but even then, the surge of near 17 feet is not remembered), but the winds itself caused total destruction, leaving the areas resembling an air raid

The point is, don't ignore the winds and think that surge is the only thing that causes damage. It is until a certain threshold is reached, then the hurricane becomes about the wind, which is of upper F2 or F3 intensity
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#36 Postby Jim Cantore » Sat Mar 25, 2006 1:07 am

Derek Ortt wrote:for hurricanes of cat 3 or lower intensities, flooding (surge and rain) by far is the most destructive impacts.

HOWEVER, once you pass the cat 3 threshhold, surge becomes a meaningless variable overall. The last 3 cat 4's and 5's to hit the USA (Andrew, Iniki, and Charley) had insignificant surges (except Andrew, but even then, the surge of near 17 feet is not remembered), but the winds itself caused total destruction, leaving the areas resembling an air raid

The point is, don't ignore the winds and think that surge is the only thing that causes damage. It is until a certain threshold is reached, then the hurricane becomes about the wind, which is of upper F2 or F3 intensity


It depends on the fact of

Where it hits
How strong it is
how large it is

A large strong cat 4 or 5 storm moving at say 5mph would hand all three

I'll estimate Katrinas damage broken up into categories

Surge: 80%
Wind: 10%
Flooding: 8%
Tornadoes: 2%
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#37 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Sat Mar 25, 2006 1:15 am

I'm going to stick with what I've stated all along, and agree with Dr. Steve Lyons and our local meteorologists who all feel she was a 4 at first landfall, (I'm estimating around 140'ish) and not a lot below that at 2nd landfall (130'ish). Incidentally, the storm surge at maximum was WELL over 18 feet.

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#38 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Mar 25, 2006 1:47 am

Honestly, I don't think Katrina weakened AT ALL between landfalls...
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#39 Postby Frank P » Sat Mar 25, 2006 8:52 am

Derek Ortt wrote:for hurricanes of cat 3 or lower intensities, flooding (surge and rain) by far is the most destructive impacts.

HOWEVER, once you pass the cat 3 threshhold, surge becomes a meaningless variable overall. The last 3 cat 4's and 5's to hit the USA (Andrew, Iniki, and Charley) had insignificant surges (except Andrew, but even then, the surge of near 17 feet is not remembered), but the winds itself caused total destruction, leaving the areas resembling an air raid

The point is, don't ignore the winds and think that surge is the only thing that causes damage. It is until a certain threshold is reached, then the hurricane becomes about the wind, which is of upper F2 or F3 intensity


Yes, this is true but you CAN build houses to withstand Cat 4 and 5 winds.... heck you can buy modular homes quite reasonable that's designed to withstand 160 mph winds... now I certainly wouldn't stay in one, but the do wind test the homes and they do hold up... I've also seen pictures of modular homes that have withstood F2 tornadoes...

Now if your not living in a home designed for such winds then you're just out of luck if one hits... but NONE of it can withstand water.... I and disagree that SURGE will NEVER be a meaningless variable... especially if you are in the norhtern GOM where surge is levels can be so devastating... most people who die in hurricanes die from the SURGE or flood waters.. how can that be meaningless....
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#40 Postby Frank P » Sat Mar 25, 2006 8:59 am

Lindaloo wrote:
Hurricane Floyd wrote:Its pointless to set a number for each category and how many feet of surge its going to produce its unpredictible.



It is obvious you did not read the advisories that were put out on Katrina. The surge WAS predicted. Can you please EXPLAIN how they issued this and it was unpredicted as you stated above?



COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.



COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.




http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurri ... 5/KATRINA/


yeah but it was 35 feet in Pass and 25-26 feet practically everywhere else from Waveland to Biloxi which is a large area of coast and even 28 feet near the Beau Rivage, which was not near the "center..."

I still think they were too low on the warnings relative to surve levels.... I expected a max of 22 feet... that's why I put everything of value on my second floor... if I really though I was going to see 26-28 feet I probably would have taken them with me... but still I have no one to blame but myself... I should have know better... the NHC did a great job on this storm and I, like thousands of others, perhaps just got a tad complacent.. and it cost some of them their lives... I was one of the lucky ones...
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