Time magazine global warming article

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

In my part (SW New Brunswick) we are about the same as Eastern New England. Nova Scotia gets more though, being further SE, that is for sure.

[benny]

I actually don't worry as much about global warming and tropical cyclones -- we were in for an active couple decades no matter what. Insolation is always there putting enough energy into the tropics, you don't need global warming to get monster storms and active seasons. The trades, the jet streams, the persistent highs and passage of lows probably won't change much (my wild guess). The real scare with global warming is major changes in ice sheets affecting ocean circulation patterns, and massive changes in species range. The effects on the biosphere could be much more upsetting than the effect on tropical cyclones or blizzards for that matter. Sea level rise is a huge concern. Effects on plant life and insects could be very serious. I can't believe I'd say this, but tropical cyclone intensity may be the least of our concerns. And until we have 5 or 10 centuries of accurate data on tropical cyclones, trend analysis will remain fairly short-sighted.

I agree. I am not saying there couldn't be some problems due to global warming, but it appears what is going on in the tropics is just a normal cycle of heightened activity and different steering currents.

I could be wrong, and someone can correct me if I am, but I believe that tropical cyclone activity in other parts of the world are below normal right now.

Since the other thread is banned...

I'll restart this thread with a comment... I am on the side that it is uncertain what global warming will do to hurricanes. However the most interesting part is the redistribution of hurricanes in the past 20 years. If I am not mistaken activity in the WPac and EPAC has gone down considerably, especially in the EPac. Atlantic has risen (to compensate?)...... I wonder that global warming could help to change the climatology. My idea is that by increasing the SST earlier in the season.. you could add a few weeks to the season. Usually marginal instabilities are a controlling factor to the Atlantic hurricane season especially out west.. shear actually minimizes in August. If the SSTs were to get warmer faster without any change in the atmosphere (warming aloft etc).. it is possible that the Atlantic hurricane season will be extended. More stuff like Dennis/Emily?? maybe not that early but who knows.