The Case Against Florida

[weatherwoman132]

you guys make some good points.

[Downdraft]

So odds are against a fla hit in 2006 by the stats and if you look at the trend from 2003-2005 and extrapolate for 2006, Its Tx and LA's turn unfortunate for them but good for Fla unless a storm clips the southern tip on the way to the gulf.

Hurricanes don't listen to statistics my friend....

The point is plain and simple. Odds don't increase or decrease year to year based upon previous history. The same places can get hit again or places that never have been hit can get slammed. Using odds as a means to predict won't work no matter how much you wish you get one or hope you don't.

[boca]

It also depends on the Bermuda High and its positioning as well as its strength whike the storm is moving path of least resistance.

[Patrick99]

Whats scary is how over due south Florida is for a major. People think we have paid our dues during the past two years, when,in reality, im afraid were just getting started!!

Yeah - Jeanne was a legitimate major. Wilma was borderline and did some major-like damage along a wide swath. Charley was obviously quite major.

With Katrina, Frances, Dennis, Rita, and Ivan, S. FL actually got lucky. Especially Katrina - prior to her landfall, she was really starting to get her act together. Given more Gulf Stream time, she would have been a big problem for us.

[Patrick99]

As far as probabilities - I have to wonder if Vegas bookies are taking bets on hurricane season. If they were, it wouldn't surprise me one bit. There's an enormous slate of bets one could conceivably make with regard to hurricanes and the hurricane season.

[JPmia]

As far as probabilities - I have to wonder if Vegas bookies are taking bets on hurricane season. If they were, it wouldn't surprise me one bit. There's an enormous slate of bets one could conceivably make with regard to hurricanes and the hurricane season.

I think they do.

[windycity]

Patrick99, Jeanne wasnt a major upon landfall except for perhaps a very small area in martin co. Any area south, received cat 1 winds. It seemed stronger at the time, because most people had nothing to compare it to.

[MiamiensisWx]

Frances had lower sustained winds than Jeanne did at landfall, yet the larger size and slower motion than Jeanne meant that I had higher sustained winds in my area than I received from Jeanne. I had low-end tropical storm-force sustained winds (40MPH to 45MPH) during Frances. I don't think we had any sustained tropical storm-force winds in my area during Jeanne; it was smaller and moved faster than Frances. ALL winds, regardless of intensity, are destructive, though.

[windycity]

Well, the high is again a feature for this week, i wonder if we will see ANY change with this front moving down.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well, the high is again a feature for this week, i wonder if we will see ANY change with this front moving down.

Doubt it. I think our cold weather conditions are all but, gone . We are gonna get a chance at rain as that front is supposed to stall just to the north of us i think. I just want some showers, we got some rain a couple of weeks ago. I was in here boynton beach and we got just over 3.00 inches in one day !

[CHRISTY]

the front will stall across southflorida bringing a tad bit cooler temps!but as far as big cool downs those are over,besides temps are suppose to rebound very rapidly after this front go's threw.so really the ridge will be in control once again.

[aquaholic901]

To say an area that has been hit isn't "due" to get hit again is totally incorrect and the logic is flawed. If that was the case Jeanne should not have made landfall within shouting distance of where Frances came ashore. Every year we get this and every year it gets argued to death. More hurricanes equal more chances but the assumption that one area is more due than another is statistically and logically incorrect. The odds don't change from year to year. Same principle applies shooting dice. The more times you roll the dice the more opportunities you have to throw a 7 but the odds of two dye rolling to 7 remain the same with every throw. Your odds of throwing that 7 do increase against you because there is little to no variation to affect the throw. The major difference is the variables don't change with each dice throw the variables as to when and where a hurricane goes are far more complex and depend on factors that cannot be reliably predicted more than 72 hours in advance usually. Florida's and the Carolina's are always at increased risk due to their geography. It can be said with some certitude that a major hit on south Florida or Tampa is pretty much a sure thing given an infinite amount of time and and infinite combination of variables to affect the storm's course. It falls within the realm of high probability not mathematical certainty.

You beat me to it. If you live on the coast you should be ready, ma nature doesn't really care about statistics.

[richtrav]

Isn't this like the gambler's fallacy?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

[GeneratorPower]

To say an area that has been hit isn't "due" to get hit again is totally incorrect and the logic is flawed.

This is very true, Downdraft. Well, sort of From a statistics point of view, that is, the actual science of statistics it is somewhat like rolling dice, or just one die. The chances of rolling a 1 on a regular die is 1/6 for each roll. Two successive rolls have equal chances of scoring a 1 on each roll. The fact that the first roll was a 1 in no way changes the odds of rolling a 1 on the second roll. It's still 1/6.

However, and it's a big however... if you are figuring the probability of rolling a 1 followed immediately by another 1, the probability of that is actually 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36. So if it's a pair of dice, the chances of two hurricanes hitting Florida is 1/36.

If we insist on reducing forecasting to statistics, I say that hurricanes *must* be thought of as individual rolls, with each storm tracked separately. To lump them together would give very low probabilities of multiple hits on the U.S. coastline. So, to over simplify it, each hurricane would have a 1/6 chance of hitting the coast. In a season with six hurricanes, you'd expect 1 to hit the coast. A season with 12 hurricanes would expect to see 2 landfalls. And so on, and so on.

I also believe that hurricanes are not dice and don't behave like perfect statistics.