SE Indian Ocean: TC Hubert

[HURAKAN]

LOOKIN' HEALTHIER!

[Coredesat]

03/1333 UTC 15.7S 111.7E T1.5/1.5 93S

Dvorak agrees!

[HURAKAN]

THIS IMAGE IS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO AND THE DISTURBANCE WAS LOOKING VERY OMINOUS!

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S
111.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THE CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND DEEPENING OVER A LOW LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO FAIR.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Here comes Glenda's brother from the blue.

[HurricaneBill]

Wow, Australia has been getting pounded this year.

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0626UTC 4 APRIL 2006

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600UTC tropical low located within 15 nautical miles of
Latitude fourteen decimal one degrees South [14.1S]
Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal four degrees East [115.4E]
Recent movement : nearly stationary.
Maximum winds : 30 knots.
Central pressure: 998hPa.
Note: recent movement is given as "nearly stationary" because the short term
movement of the low is not likely to be indicative of the longer term movement.
The low is expected to move erratically over the next 12 to 24 hours and then
begin moving southwards once it has developed into a tropical cyclone.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles of the centre extending to within 100 nautical miles in
western quadrants.


FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours
causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.


At 1800 UTC 04 April: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.0 South 115.0 East
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 05 April: Within 90 nautical miles of 16.0 South 115.5 East
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 04 April 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

04/0833 UTC 14.0S 115.0E T2.5/2.5 93S -- South Indian Ocean

[P.K.]

The time in the header is wrong, but this is the 1300 GMT update.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1017UTC 4 APRIL 2006

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200UTC tropical low located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude fourteen decimal five degrees South [14.5S]
Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal two degrees East [115.2E]
Recent movement : slowly south.
Maximum winds : 30 knots.
Central pressure: 998hPa.
Note: The low is expected to move erratically over the next 12 to 24 hours and
then begin moving south or southwestwards once it has developed further.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre extending to within 100 nautical miles in
western quadrants.


FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours
causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.


At 0000 UTC 05 April: Within 50 nautical miles of 14.9 South 115.5 East
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 05 April: Within 80 nautical miles of 15.4 South 114.8 East
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 04 April 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[CHRISTY]

another one wow....this basin has been very active this season!

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1802UTC 4 APRIL 2006

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800UTC tropical low located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude fourteen decimal six degrees South [14.6S]
Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal three degrees East [115.3E]
Recent movement : slowly south.
Maximum winds : 30 knots.
Central pressure: 998hPa.
Note: The low is expected to move erratically over the next 12 to 24 hours and
then begin moving south or southwestwards once it has developed further.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre extending to within 100 nautical miles in
western quadrants.


FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours
causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.


At 0600 UTC 05 April: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.4 South 115.2 East
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 05 April: Within 80 nautical miles of 16.4 South 114.9 East
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0100 UTC 05 April 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WTXS21 PGTW 042030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/042021ZAPR2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6S 115.5E TO 17.7S 113.5E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUM-
BERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 041730Z INDICATES
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 114.9E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
115.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 114.9E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
AN INCREASE IN RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS SITUATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
AND NOW BEGINNING TO TRACK POLEWARD INTO THE RIDGE. ADDITIONALLY, THE
LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTI-
MATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052030Z.//

[HurricaneHunter914]

Can the title of this thread be changed from Tropical Low to Invest something is about to become a named storm?

[HURAKAN]

[P.K.]

I'll update it if the BoM upgrade it at some point.

[HurricaneHunter914]

well can you atleast put TCFA on the title.?

[HURAKAN]

well can you atleast put TCFA on the title.?

Remember that the JTWC is unofficial, therefore, we should stick to what BoM says!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Oh,okay

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0047UTC 5 APRIL 2006

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC developing tropical low located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude fifteen decimal five degrees South [15.5S]
Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal five degrees East [116.5E]
Recent movement : slowly south southeast.
Maximum winds : 30 knots.
Central pressure: 994hPa.
Note: The low is expected to move towards the south or southwest once it has
developed further.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 18 hours
causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell. Winds increasing to 45 knots near the centre by 0000 UTC 6 April



At 1200 UTC 05 April: Within 55 nautical miles of 16.4 South 116.3 East
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 06 April: Within 85 nautical miles of 17.4 South 115.3 East
Central pressure 982 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 05 April 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED!

[HurricaneHunter914]

If it's winds are 30 knots then it should be at least a tropical storm?