EPAC to an Early Start Maybe with Possible Invest - 8N 125W?

#21 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 3:48 pm

boca_chris wrote:Based on maps I am looking at the shear is only around 20K, marginal, but somewhat favorable for development.

That's why I said just north of the system where the shear is around and over 60 knots.

MiamiensisWx · #22 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 3:48 pm

Good graphic, Sandy!

:lol:

#23 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 3:51 pm

It's not a waste of time to keep an eye on it because the system has been able to generate convection and everthing, but the environment around it is pretty hostile. I like this types of scenarios before the season because it prepares me for the true events later on the hurricane season.

MiamiensisWx · #24 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 3:52 pm

Yeah... that is why I was looking out carefully at it.

#25 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 3:58 pm

It's not a waste of time to keep an eye on it because the system has been able to generate convection and everthing, but the environment around it is pretty hostile. I like this types of scenarios before the season because it prepares me for the true events later on the hurricane season.

Exactly, I agree. Also, I think many members learn from some of the discussion here -e.g. that no EPAC system has formed in April and which ones form early.

Thanks, I'll still watch it to see what happens but you are right, as soon as that 60K shear hits it - it's gone.

CHRISTY · #26 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 4:00 pm

BIG FLARE UP!!!! :eek:

#27 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 4:03 pm

looks impressive on that shot!

CHRISTY · #28 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 4:09 pm

HEY BOCA HERE'S A ANIMATION OF A POSSIBLE TD IN THE MAKING....MAYBE!

benny · #29 Postby **benny** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 4:10 pm

Best low-level center looks to be around 6n126w. pretty wimpy though and is within the itcz.. that doesn't generally bode well for development. interesting though. models suggest an unfavorable upper environment by wed so it'd better hurry.

CHRISTY · #30 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 4:13 pm

here's another view of it....

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #31 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 4:23 pm

Very impressive looking system we got there...The quickscats show a tightly packed LLC(LOOKS TO BE CLOSD)which is not a trough...I also see outflow and convection firing over it. So it would not suprize me if it did form. Yes the shear to the north looks pretty strong so it only has a chance if it stays south.

#32 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 4:32 pm

Very impressive looking system we got there...The quickscats show a tightly packed LLC(LOOKS TO BE CLOSD)which is not a trough...I also see outflow and convection firing over it. So it would not suprize me if it did form. Yes the shear to the north looks pretty strong so it only has a chance if it stays south

I think it has a window of opportunity to develop into a depression before it moves into an unfavorable climate. What do you think?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #33 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 4:35 pm

It has 6 to 12 hours to develop before shear gets to it...I don't expect the nhc to upgrade it. May it could become a depression. It already looks to have a small closed LLC on quickscats. I'm waiting for any t numbres to come out.

CHRISTY · #34 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 4:36 pm

here's a visible image on it!i will animate it in a minute!

x-y-no · #35 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 4:38 pm

Not impressively organized, but there do appear to be westerly winds on the south side, so one could call it a closed (if very elongated) circulation.

CHRISTY · #36 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 4:40 pm

here's the visible animation on the possible td....

#37 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 4:44 pm

If it happened, it would be a record for the EPAC.

These are the type of "system" I like to track - as it is in the middle of nowhere.

You can clearly see the elongated circulation....looking at loops of the area.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/cpac-ir4-loop.html

The latest EPAC tropical discussion is interesting. There is a surface "ridge" that dominates west of 115W.
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102034
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON APR 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2045 UTC.

...ITCZ...AXIS...7N77W 3N100W 8N120W 4N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG 60 NM WIDE 89W TO 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
120 NM WIDE 118W TO 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER TROUGH THROUGH 32N120W TO 224N142W. MOVING E 20-25
KT. A STRONG UPPER JET IS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
BROAD N/S RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ANTICYCLONE NEAR 6N124W TO 18N101W.
A LARGE MASS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE
RIDGE IS BEING ADVECTED INTO MEXICO.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS 17N94W TO 3N100W IS NEAR
STATIONARY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REST OF THE AREA
TO THE E.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 115W.

$$
TRRES

CHRISTY · #38 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 5:01 pm

just updated...

#39 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 5:03 pm

can you animate that last image for us CHRISTY?

CHRISTY · #40 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 5:06 pm

boca_chris wrote:can you animate that last image for us CHRISTY?

hey boca i will animate it now...but check out the GFS on this system...

EPAC to an Early Start Maybe with Possible Invest - 8N 125W?

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