La Nina/El Nino/Neutral: Long-range Thoughts For 2006

[MiamiensisWx]

I have noticed some tendency for la nina years to have a strong meridional component-type track to them (N-S).... however without a full study nothing definitive can be said. You would have to compare contrast the la nina years with the el nino years as a whole.. not just a selective sample. Tendencies are not exactly the same thing as realities though... if the signal is strong enough, you should be able to find it in composite or correlation work. I do know what you mean, we have had some ferocious la nina events that have been evil for the e coast but exactly why is still a mystery...

I agree... my point is that many La Nina years have been bad for the eastern U.S. coast north of Florida (e.g., the Carolinas). I think more studies need to be done on the factors and so on.

[MiamiensisWx]

I disagree with that.

Mostly the broken logic around that because of La Nina we're DEFINITELY gonna see increased Cape Verde activity which is hardly true. It doesn't mean much of anything because I don't see anything that points to that.

What do you base that evidence on?

[Weatherfreak000]

I disagree with that.

Mostly the broken logic around that because of La Nina we're DEFINITELY gonna see increased Cape Verde activity which is hardly true. It doesn't mean much of anything because I don't see anything that points to that.

What do you base that evidence on?

Common sense.


I've allready described my reasons for disagreeing with heavy Recurving. You don't have any realistic evidence to support it as much as I do disagreeing with it.


I leave it at this, when a professional expert comes and tells us that La Nina is correlated to a heavy Carolina/Recurve event that maybe i'll beleive it. Not because two or three La Nina years of only hell, 10-15 years of realistically being able to see La Nina.

Let's be serious here.

[MiamiensisWx]

Weatherfreak000, there already ARE some professionals who agree with my points. Look at this Palm Beach Post article...

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/local_news/epaper/2006/03/26/m1a_LANINA_0326.html

From the article...

• La Niña is back. The pattern of cool water in the eastern Pacific, last seen from 1998 to 2000, affects wind patterns around the globe. One result is that winds at various layers of the atmosphere tend to blow in harmony over the Atlantic, lessening the shear that would tear hurricanes apart.

The opposite phenomenon, El Niño, turns the Atlantic into a wind-shear factory in which hurricanes have a hard time forming. Scientists say the last El Niño emerged in late 2004, largely ending that hurricane season in mid-October.

The 2005 season was in a neutral phase, although wind shear was abnormally weak for much of the summer.

Some scientists expect La Niña to stick around throughout the coming season, allowing hurricanes to spawn near Africa and gain strength as they cross the Atlantic. But National Hurricane Center researcher Chris Landsea said forecasts so far "are all over the board."

"Some say La Niña will be in place through the fall. Some go to El Niño," he said. "That's one reason we don't issue a forecast in January."

Then again, at least one scientist thinks Florida might fare better if La Niña sticks around because hurricanes forming farther east would have more time to curve north.

"La Niña means more hurricanes, but guess what — it tends to send them to our cousins in Carolina and New Jersey," said James O'Brien, a professor of meteorology and oceanography at Florida State University. "Floridians want La Niña to keep going strong."

[Weatherfreak000]

Ok, so a Professor from Florida writing an article in Floridian newspaper is describing this?


Please excuse my lack of shock


How about you give me a WELL KNOWN PROFESSIONAL. Not that i'm saying this guy isn't a professional but I don't know him.


Your opinions on this matter have always been opinion based CVW, and your trying to slam an opinion down our throats which is for lack of a better word, stupid.

Let's just leave it at agree to disagree, your not gonna differ from your opinion and neither will I.

[MiamiensisWx]

OK! I was not slamming it down your throat, and was not intending or wanting to do it to anyone. Maybe you perceive it that way, though. Let's just leave it at this.

[CHRISTY]

OK! I was not slamming it down your throat, and was not intending or wanting to do it to anyone. Maybe you perceive it that way, though. Let's just leave it at this.

if u clearly read the entire article he says florida will better of with la nina around....well thats the thing la nina is not going to be around all season in fact we may have neutral conditions sonner rather then later!

[Weatherfreak000]

There's only one way to find out, so let's see.


After all it is forecasting for La Nina to disappear during most of hurricane season. Guess we'll find out soon enough.

[MiamiensisWx]

True; however, it is a bit early, and I am trying to look at the patterns. Let's see how it plays out.

What annoys me is that news articles are trying to make Wilma look like a "weak" Florida hurricane. What worries me is that people may become complacent if we have another Carolina season.

[MiamiensisWx]

There's only one way to find out, so let's see.

I agree.

[terstorm1012]

CVW, check out some of the posts over in the drought thread (just under this one).

I agree with you and the La Nina-Carolina theories to an extent btw. One of these days before the season starts I'll post an analysis for critique and whatnot.

[Scorpion]

True; however, it is a bit early, and I am trying to look at the patterns. Let's see how it plays out.

What annoys me is that news articles are trying to make Wilma look like a "weak" Florida hurricane. What worries me is that people may become complacent if we have another Carolina season.

Did you see today's front page news article in the Post? Says Wilma was 105 mph at landfall and the max sustained wind felt in the county was 90 mph. I would disagree with the landfall intensity, however the windspeed here seems about right. I don't think any areas in this county experienced Cat 2 conditions unless it was way out west near Lake Okeechobee.

[SouthFloridawx]

True; however, it is a bit early, and I am trying to look at the patterns. Let's see how it plays out.

What annoys me is that news articles are trying to make Wilma look like a "weak" Florida hurricane. What worries me is that people may become complacent if we have another Carolina season.

Did you see today's front page news article in the Post? Says Wilma was 105 mph at landfall and the max sustained wind felt in the county was 90 mph. I would disagree with the landfall intensity, however the windspeed here seems about right. I don't think any areas in this county experienced Cat 2 conditions unless it was way out west near Lake Okeechobee.

Whom was the article written by because I'm going to go by NHC report.

120 MPH at landfall and decreasing to 109.25 MPH just before leaving Florida.

A vigorous mid-tropospheric trough, moving eastward from the central United States, provided an increasingly strong southwesterly steering current that accelerated Wilma northeastward toward southern Florida. As the upper-level flow over the hurricane increased, so too did the vertical shear, and by early on 24 October the environmental 850-200 mb shear (averaged over an annulus about 100 to 400 n mi from the center) was roughly 25 kt. Despite the strong shear in its surroundings, Wilma strengthened over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and its winds reached about 110 kt as it approached Florida. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be near 105 kt (category 3 intensity) when landfall of the center occurred in southwestern Florida near Cape Romano around 1030 UTC 24 October. Continuing to accelerate and now moving at a forward speed of 20 to 25 kt, the hurricane crossed the southern Florida peninsula in 4.5 hours, with the center emerging into the Atlantic just southeast of Jupiter around 1500 UTC. Maximum winds had decreased to near 95 kt (category 2) during the crossing of Florida.

[cycloneye]

Ok CapeVerdeWave and Weatherfreak000 let's cut those arguments that may turn into a ugly tone.Let's leave it there please.

[benny]

Ok, so a Professor from Florida writing an article in Floridian newspaper is describing this?


Please excuse my lack of shock


How about you give me a WELL KNOWN PROFESSIONAL. Not that i'm saying this guy isn't a professional but I don't know him.


Your opinions on this matter have always been opinion based CVW, and your trying to slam an opinion down our throats which is for lack of a better word, stupid.

Let's just leave it at agree to disagree, your not gonna differ from your opinion and neither will I.

Jim O'Brien is a well-respected ENSO researcher that has published more than a few papers on El Nino and US hurricane landfall. He is known in the science community for sure. I would say he brings at least a fair amount of credibility to the argument. That being said.. let's just remember that 2004 was a weak El Nino year and 2005 was neutral so notable exceptions can happen. One of the most interesting points is the idea that systems forming farther east have more a chance to recurve.. now that is certainly based on some truth. Stronger hurricanes move with a deeper current.. and when they form so far away.. there is much better chance for an upper trough that would have little effect on a developing system to turn a fully-mature hurricane. Still some of the worst of all-time (aka the old timers would call them the "great" hurricanes) form well out to sea ...

[Scorpion]

Yes...such hurricanes as the 1928 Hurricane,'47,Donna,and even Frances formed far out and still impacted Florida. It's all about the timing of the troughs.

[jusforsean]

Hi, off subject but I am wondering if someone can help me, how can I include photos in my posts? Thanks

[skysummit]

Hi, off subject but I am wondering if someone can help me, how can I include photos in my posts? Thanks

Don't believe you can do that any longer....read the "Guides" post. I believe you can only post links to images now.

[jusforsean]

Because someone in another topic asked to see the damages to my house and post photos of it. So if I upload them to a web page and post the link that would work I think. Thanks again. I do see people posting photos like the other day a lady put some up of her house and the rain they got. I dunno

[skysummit]

Ok...you can post thumbnails. You can upload your pics to Yahoo Photos and give us the link to your gallery, or you can upload them individually to http://www.imageshack.us and then post a thumbnail for each pic. I would rather do the first option myself...especially if it's a lot of pics.