Neutral ENSO Returns to Pacific

[cycloneye]

I would have to agree with Benny to some degree and not that every neutral season is the same but the setup seems different from last year.If I see a change in the patterns in the next 4-6 weeks like more Rain with that I would assume a different position on the highs.Then I might start to raise an eyebrow.

Yes,the setup of the pattern in the Atlantic for the summer has to be watched in the next few weeks to see how it unfolds and see if it will be similar as 2005 or there will be a change.

[Jim Cantore]

La Ninas Funeral

She never talked, but you knew what she was thinking, "Who should I destroy today" her heart was as cold as the waters she dwelled in.

Her brother El Nino who would have wanted to be here today but is still serving Jail time for savatageing the 1997 Hurricane season.

now for her will

She leaves her house to her cousin El neutral until El Nino gets out of jail, you may go in peace.

[cycloneye]

TAO Graphic

Updated graphic of the pacific where it shows no cooling spots at el nino 3-4 meaning things are basiclly neutral.

Depth Data

The above graphic shows how the deep waters are.It shows some eastward propagation of the warm waters but it's not clear if a kelvin wave is moving eastward.The next 4-6 weeks will be critical to see in a definite manner how ENSO will be when the peak of hurricane season 2006 arrives.

[cycloneye]

NOAA 90 day forecast



NOAA now is saying at their 90 day forecast issued today that La nina is almost gone and neutral conditions are returning.Read all the forecast at link above.

[cycloneye]

La Ninas Funeral

She never talked, but you knew what she was thinking, "Who should I destroy today" her heart was as cold as the waters she dwelled in.

Her brother El Nino who would have wanted to be here today but is still serving Jail time for savatageing the 1997 Hurricane season.

now for her will

She leaves her house to her cousin El neutral until El Nino gets out of jail, you may go in peace.

That was a good analogy about this.

[Jim Cantore]

I try to throw in a weather joke once a day, or twice If I'm thinking clearly

[Rod Hagen]

The Australian BOM wrap is at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ and a summary of the various models and predictions at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

Cheers

Rod

[cycloneye]

POAMA Model



Wow I was away four days but this Aussie model definitly has turned to neutral from the warm bias it was a few weeks ago.

[SouthFloridawx]

If I am correct the models are expecting the current temps to dip a little and then rebound to neutral by peak of the season.

[cycloneye]

If I am correct the models are expecting the current temps to dip a little and then rebound to neutral by peak of the season.

Yes that is what the POAMA model and other ENSO models show.

TAO ENSO Graphic



Basiclly no change from the past weeks data which showed neutral ENSO and that is what this latest graphic shows.

[cycloneye]

POAMA Model Update



Looking at the very latest from this Aussie ENSO model it shows almost a non-existance el nino and Neutral ENSO thru December.That is remarkable as this model has been bias toward el nino for many months.La Nina is dead according to this model.

[Jim Hughes]

POAMA Model Update



Looking at the very latest from this Aussie ENSO model it shows almost a non-existance el nino and Neutral ENSO thru December.That is remarkable as this model has been bias toward el nino for many months.La Nina is dead according to this model.

Not to many organizations are going to forecast anything developing during mid year. It would go against climatology and they do not forecast against this unless the are almost 100% sure. At least NOAA is like this. I guess I should not speak for the other forecasting places around the world. (BTW I know you are referring to a model here and not an organization. I just thought I would throw this out there.)


Jim

[Ivan14]

Ok now I can say it La Nina is dead. Hopefuly I am not wrong like I was the last time I said that.

[cycloneye]

April Update of ENSO Models



This update of the ENSO models for April confirms that Neutral ENSO haved returned after a brief Weak La Nina event that was present in the equatorial Pacific in the past 4 months.Neutral ENSO according to the models is forecast to pesist thru the summer and fall months of 2006.

[MiamiensisWx]

I disagree a bit with the BoM. To me, current conditions are not quite neutral. Atmospheric patterns (such as increasingly prevelant Great Plains ridging) are emerging that are more characteristic of La Nina conditions. This, along with cooler eastern Pacific SST anomalies now than a few weeks before, truly suggest we still have weak to moderate La Nina conditions. Any thoughts?

[HurricaneJoe22]

Posted on Fri, Apr. 28, 2006
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HURRICANE SEASON
Some good storm news, but expect a busy season
One factor that can enhance hurricane development is diminishing, but forecasters still warn of an unusually active season.
BY MARTIN MERZER
mmerzer@MiamiHerald.com

A dim ray of favorable news lightened the hurricane outlook a bit Thursday, but forecasters urged South Floridians to prepare for another active season and to rely more on themselves than on government agencies for post-storm relief.

Rusty Pfost, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service's South Florida office, said he was shocked by the area's response to Hurricane Wilma, which struck Oct. 24 after days of warnings and yet left many people in immediate search of water, ice and gasoline.

''I'm very disappointed about the way South Florida reacted after Wilma,'' Pfost said during a briefing for reporters. ``The long gasoline lines, etc. It was just disgraceful.''

He, other forecasters and local emergency managers recommend that everyone stockpiles enough essentials to last for at least three days after a hurricane.

In a measure of what passes for good news, given recent busy hurricane seasons, forecasters said they believed that La Niña conditions -- a periodic drop in sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean -- seem to be fading. La Niña conditions are associated with enhanced development and strength of hurricanes.

Nevertheless, forecasters still are expecting above average hurricane activity this year. The six-month season begins June 1.

''It's pretty hard to match the 28 storms we had last year,'' said Robert Molleda, the weather service's local warnings coordinator.

``But what we really have to do in South Florida is get ready.''

In other developments:

• Molleda said he expected the rainy season to begin on schedule around May 20. This week's scattered showers and thunderstorms provided a preview, but the region remains unusually dry.

As of Thursday morning, Miami had received only 0.23 inches of rain in April, according to official records, well below the normal rainfall of 2.84 inches at this stage of the month. So far this year, rainfall in Miami is about half the normal amount.

Fort Lauderdale officially has received only 1.49 inches of rain so far in April, less than half the normal 3.31 inches. Broward rainfall also is well below normal this year.

• Summer temperatures are expected to be above normal, as they have been in recent years. How much warmer? Molleda offered an estimate of ½ degree to three degrees above normal averages.

[TampaFl]

How does this netural enso compare to this time last year and in 2004? Was there a netural enso in 2004? And does a netural enso also mean an active season for 2006? Thoughts and comments welcomed.


Robert

[MiamiensisWx]

Posted on Fri, Apr. 28, 2006
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HURRICANE SEASON
Some good storm news, but expect a busy season
One factor that can enhance hurricane development is diminishing, but forecasters still warn of an unusually active season.
BY MARTIN MERZER
mmerzer@MiamiHerald.com

A dim ray of favorable news lightened the hurricane outlook a bit Thursday, but forecasters urged South Floridians to prepare for another active season and to rely more on themselves than on government agencies for post-storm relief.

Rusty Pfost, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service's South Florida office, said he was shocked by the area's response to Hurricane Wilma, which struck Oct. 24 after days of warnings and yet left many people in immediate search of water, ice and gasoline.

''I'm very disappointed about the way South Florida reacted after Wilma,'' Pfost said during a briefing for reporters. ``The long gasoline lines, etc. It was just disgraceful.''

He, other forecasters and local emergency managers recommend that everyone stockpiles enough essentials to last for at least three days after a hurricane.

In a measure of what passes for good news, given recent busy hurricane seasons, forecasters said they believed that La Niña conditions -- a periodic drop in sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean -- seem to be fading. La Niña conditions are associated with enhanced development and strength of hurricanes.

Nevertheless, forecasters still are expecting above average hurricane activity this year. The six-month season begins June 1.

''It's pretty hard to match the 28 storms we had last year,'' said Robert Molleda, the weather service's local warnings coordinator.

``But what we really have to do in South Florida is get ready.''

In other developments:

• Molleda said he expected the rainy season to begin on schedule around May 20. This week's scattered showers and thunderstorms provided a preview, but the region remains unusually dry.

As of Thursday morning, Miami had received only 0.23 inches of rain in April, according to official records, well below the normal rainfall of 2.84 inches at this stage of the month. So far this year, rainfall in Miami is about half the normal amount.

Fort Lauderdale officially has received only 1.49 inches of rain so far in April, less than half the normal 3.31 inches. Broward rainfall also is well below normal this year.

• Summer temperatures are expected to be above normal, as they have been in recent years. How much warmer? Molleda offered an estimate of ½ degree to three degrees above normal averages.

First of all, this article is inaccurate. Neutral conditions may mean WORSE news for southern Florida. Remember 2004?

Secondly, La Nina is NOT dissipating or dead. In fact, current atmospheric patterns strongly suggest it is strengthening or coming back.

In my opinion, this article is false.

[Ivan14]

2005 was neutral and it was a record breaker. That's not necessarily good news that La Nina is diminishing. Now if we got an El Nino that would be good news.

[Aquawind]

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2006 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY 2006

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO NEAR-NORMAL ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC BETWEEN THE DATE LINE AND 110W DURING APRIL. ANOMALOUSLY WARM SUBSURFACE WATER HAS EDGED EASTWARD TO ABOUT 115W. BELOW NORMAL SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURES HAVE RETREATED EASTWARD AND ARE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE REGION EAST OF 100W.

THE PATTERN OF OLR SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, INDONESIA AND THE NORTHEASTERN INDIAN OCEAN AND SUPPRESSED CONVECTION BETWEEN ABOUT 150E AND THE DATE LINE. DURING EARLY APRIL THE REGION OF SUPPRESSED CONVECTION NEAR THE DATE LINE DECLINED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES BETWEEN 160E AND 160W DECREASED. THESE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING LA NINA CONDITIONS. NO ENSO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AND NEAR-NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MAY.

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MAY IS BASED ON THE HPC 1-5 DAY FORECAST, CPCS 6-10 AND 8-14-DAY OUTLOOKS, STATISTICAL TOOLS, CCA, SMLR, OCN, CAS, AND INPUT FROM NCEPS CFS AND GFS DYNAMICAL MODELS. EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS CALL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST AND GIVE WEAK SUPPORT FOR SUB-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST, WHERE EC IS CHOSEN FOR THE FINAL FORECAST. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR ALASKA IN CPC EXTENDED-RANGE FORECASTS. THE STATISTICAL TOOLS ALL HAVE INDICATIONS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO VARYING DEGREES IN TEXAS AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST, WITH THE OCN AND CCA HAVING THE STRONGEST SIGNAL AND THE SMLR PROVIDING THE WEAKEST FORECAST. IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE OCN AND SMLR PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE CCA AND CAS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL. THE CFS PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST. CFS ALSO GIVES WEAK INDICATIONS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST AND FOR SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE CCA AND OCN GIVE WEAK INDICATIONS FOR SUB-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE GREAT LAKES WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. BECAUSE THIS IS A ZERO-LEAD FORECAST, THE SHORTER RANGE TOOLS ARE GIVEN THE GREATEST WEIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE LOWER 48 STATES AND ALASKA IS BASED MAINLY ON HPC 1-5 DAY FORECASTS, GFS OUTPUT AND 6-10 DAY AND WEEK 2 FORECASTS. BOTH HPC AND CPC EXTENDED-RANGE FORECASTS INDICATE ENHANCED WETNESS IN NEW ENGLAND. SHORT AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECASTS ALSO INDICATE ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S., AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND SUB-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST AND FLORIDA. SINCE THE RAINY SEASON IN FLORIDA BEGINS IN JUNE, THE FORECAST THERE IS LEFT AS EC. THE STATISTICAL TOOLS HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT COHERENT REGIONS INDICATED FOR EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE CFS PREDICTS DRY CONDITIONS ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER, SECTIONS OF ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FOR CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON. FORECASTER: E. OLENIC

NOTES - AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES). THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR JUNE 2006... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU MAY 18 2006 THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... xus07.html