TC Monica #4: Fanni Beach (Darwin) Webcam available

[CrazyC83]

Even if Monica weakens, we could still see the "Katrina effect" of a Cat 5 storm surge on a weaker storm...

[Rod Hagen]

My biggest pet peeve about this: the fact there are multiple intensity numbers going around. I just don't know who to believe!

Nobody does, Crazy. Unless you can convince someone to whip over and drop a buoy into the eye, or it passes directly over one of the very limited number of automated recording stations in this very remote part of Australia, we'll all have to put up with modelled estimates.

We may never know the "real" figure, but it is interesting to see the differences suggested by the different models. Many of the "historic" readings from the past probably really suffered from similar problems, so trying to pick the "record breakers" is always going to be pretty speculative.

BOM in Australia really are pretty dang good, and they know this region better than most, so , as well as being the official figures they have the virtue of relying on local expertise. On the other hand we don't have the gear in OZ that was available to take direct readings like those that came out of the last US Hurricane season.

How did the measured readings compare with the models during Katrina, Wilma etc etc? Higher? Lower? Spot on? Any consistent variation?

Cheers

Rod

[CrazyC83]

My biggest pet peeve about this: the fact there are multiple intensity numbers going around. I just don't know who to believe!

Nobody does, Crazy. Unless you can convince someone to whip over and drop a buoy into the eye, or it passes directly over one of the very limited number of automated recording stations in this very remote part of Australia, we'll all have to put up with modelled estimates.

We may never know the "real" figure, but it is interesting to see the differences suggested by the different models. Many of the "historic" readings from the past probably really suffered from similar problems, so trying to pick the "record breakers" is always going to be pretty speculative.

BOM in Australia really are pretty dang good, and they know this region better than most, so , as well as being the official figures they have the virtue of relying on local expertise. On the other hand we don't have the gear in OZ that was available to take direct readings like those that came out of the last US Hurricane season.

How did the measured readings compare with the models during Katrina, Wilma etc etc? Higher? Lower? Spot on? Any consistent variation?

Cheers

Rod

The Atlantic hurricanes have the benefit of Hurricane Hunters and Recon aircraft missions.

[Rod Hagen]

Looking at the Gove Radar and the current satelite photos it looks to me as if Monica has taken a bit of a turn southwards in the last half hour or so. Might bring it ashore near Maningrida. If this occurs it may actually track S of Darwin (and undergo greater dissipation before it gets there).

May be just a very temporary bobble, of course.

see http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDE00902.loop.shtml and
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR092.loop.shtml

Rod

(Edit the southerly motion seems a bit less pronounced on the radar now. It has certainly brought it closer to the coast though)

[Jim Cantore]

good news for Darwin, bad news to whatever is it's new target maybe.

[Stratosphere747]

Rod, or any of the other Aussies....

What kind of coverage is Monica receiving from the media?

[no advance]

Wobblemania.

[AussieMark]

as is usual with cyclones the most get is a 2 min news report.

that may be a exageration but its how it seems

[Rod Hagen]

Rod, or any of the other Aussies....

What kind of coverage is Monica receiving from the media?

Its picked up a bit this morning. First or second item on the Melbourne radio news, but not in great detail. Not a great deal in the papers.

The news coverage was running a fair way behind the real situation yesterday. I actually ended up contacting one of the major news providers myself when they were still broadcasting suggestions that Monica might increase from a cat 3 to a cat 4 at a time when it was already cat 5 on both the US and Australian scales! This was surprising because they normally have a close relationship with BOM.

A couple of local stories from the Australian Broadcasting Commission :

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/20 ... 622238.htm

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/20 ... 622064.htm

TV- http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200604/r82560_240168.ram (Real Audio)


Radio - http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200604/r82546_240191.ram (Real Audio) - from an Australia wide morning current affairs program - better than most of the rest.


The Australian (murdoch newspaper) still has it a fair way down the list of stories - see http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/in ... 02,00.html

By and large I suspect except for people who have spent a fair amount of tme in northern Australia, most Aussies in the southern cities only take much notice of what is happening up there when something like Tracy kills people, I'm afraid.


Rod

[no advance]

Let hope this move is not just a wobble. Sure looks like it has decided to move SW.

[Sanibel]

From previous behavior I'd venture this is the turn and Junction Bay, and Rolling Bay should take a direct hit - with a SW corewall strike on Maningrida at full undiminished intensity with a tightened eye. Oenpelli to Kakadu from there unless it turns more south.


The slow speed is the problem here for any township that takes a direct eye hit. These areas are mangrove swamp and low level.


If not the turn then closer to Murgella.

Sharper turn and Maningrida takes, possibly, the worst cyclone in Australia's history.

[Stratosphere747]

I guess with the events of the last few years here in the US. I would have assumed around the clock coverage.

Though a cyclone that could possibly be one of the strongest on record, should receive a bit more reporting. Maybe as it nears Darwin......

[Jim Cantore]

I guess with the events of the last few years here in the US. I would have assumed around the clock coverage.

Though a cyclone that could possibly be one of the strongest on record, should receive a bit more reporting. Maybe as it nears Darwin......

I hope they dont wait until it levels entire towns to give it some press because with the events of the past year it certainly deserves it.

[CrazyC83]

How often do cyclones affect the more heavily populated areas in Australia?

[Rod Hagen]

I hope they dont wait until it levels entire towns to give it some press because with the events of the past year it certainly deserves it.

Everyone will know about it in Darwin, HF. Nobody there will be talking about anything else. Its just down south that people tend to ignore such things until after they have happened.

Cheers

Rod

[AussieMark]

Darwin is the biggest city between Townsville and Perth

the east coast of Queensland is more populated

severe cyclones hit the Queensland coast in populated areas a lot in the 1970's tho

hate to think if such storms hit today

despite how bad larry was hate to think if he hit Cairns or Townsville head on

[AussieMark]

I hope they dont wait until it levels entire towns to give it some press because with the events of the past year it certainly deserves it.

Everyone will know about it in Darwin, HF. Nobody there will be talking about anything else. Its just down south that people tend to ignore such things until after they have happened.

Cheers

Rod

and also most of the population is based in the south and most of the media

I think like 10 million live in Melbourne and SYdney alone which is around half of our total population.

that could be a reason for lack of exposure

look how much coverage and exposure firestorms in SYdney and Melbourne generate

[Rod Hagen]

How often do cyclones affect the more heavily populated areas in Australia?

The most heavily populated area that gets regularly hit is the Queensland coast. Anywhere from Mackay northwards people are pretty "cyclone aware". Townsville, Cairns and Mackay are the larger cities that lie in the "regular" path.

Every now and then something comes further south. Brisbane still sees a fair number passing within reasonable proximity - see http://pao.cnmoc.navy.mil/pao/heavyweat ... /sect7.htm

Once you get as far south as Sydney effects tend to be limited to big surf on occasion. Storms from the south do the damage in Sydney and Melbourne, rather than tropical cyclones.


The north west coast of Western Australia cops serious tropical cyclones , too, but the towns are smaller, andand much further apart , than on the east coast. (If Monica hits Darwin I wouldn't be altogether surprised if it then re-intensifies over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and makes its way down past Broome, Port Headland etc in WA).

Cheers

Rod

[AussieMark]

years cyclones have hit Darwin
1974
1937
1917
1897
1878
1881

so Darwin is not exactly a city that gets hit regularly

[AussieMark]

Hope this is not the site that will be re-enacted