94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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skysummit
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#21 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Grease Monkey wrote:I think they said the same thing last year and we know how that turned out....


looks like the TAFB products do not show any low at this time at 72 Hours


Those products were most likely released before this BoC explosion.
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#22 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:31 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Shear is too high and increasing.
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#23 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:31 pm

I can't beileve that Bret is coming back for the 2006 season. The same thing with Alberto, he formed 40 hours late from Arlene. If this is a repeat, then Chris will come out of 93L on July 2, 2006.
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#24 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:33 pm

Holy Crap! I hope that doesn't happen.
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#25 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:34 pm

Cyclenall wrote:I can't beileve that Bret is coming back for the 2006 season. The same thing with Alberto, he formed 40 hours late from Arlene. If this is a repeat, then Chris will come out of 93L on July 2, 2006.


Heh, its possible. If 93L continues to track across the Caribbean and form near the Yucatan then voila, theres a repeat of Cindy :)
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#26 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:35 pm

So when is 2006 going to try to take the lead instead of trailing 2005. 2006 is currently such a poser. :cheesy:
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#27 Postby storm4u » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:35 pm

does anyone think this is going to be another gulf season!! If this does develop into anything that would already be 2 for 2 in the gulf of mexico!! :roll:
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#28 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:37 pm

Scorpion wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:I can't beileve that Bret is coming back for the 2006 season. The same thing with Alberto, he formed 40 hours late from Arlene. If this is a repeat, then Chris will come out of 93L on July 2, 2006.


Heh, its possible. If 93L continues to track across the Caribbean and form near the Yucatan then voila, theres a repeat of Cindy :)

This is scary, this season is the same as 2005 only 40 hours late! That's only if everything goes as it should. 94L has to form first before all this comes to past. I don't know if it will form though.
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#29 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:37 pm

Edited the title to the normal words in these kind of threads. :)
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#30 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:39 pm

It looks like it's moving NW or NNW.
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#31 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:45 pm

Beryl of 2000 was also a western gulf/Boc system. Wahoo come on Beryl!!!
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#32 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:45 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:It looks like it's moving NW or NNW now and also i'm not sure but it looks like in the last few frames it's getting ready to be ripped apart, but who knows....

What are you seeing? It doesn't look like it's going to be ripped apart at all, in fact, it looks to be getting bigger and bigger and then the last frames it was doing something weird at the center.

The air around it is very moist, no dry air around it.
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#33 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:45 pm

Probably a wobble.
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#34 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:48 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Probably a wobble.


Oh please....not this already.
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#35 Postby hicksta » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:49 pm

LOL, how long till the model runs come out.
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#36 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:49 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
Grease Monkey wrote:It looks like it's moving NW or NNW now and also i'm not sure but it looks like in the last few frames it's getting ready to be ripped apart, but who knows....

What are you seeing? It doesn't look like it's going to be ripped apart at all, in fact, it looks to be getting bigger and bigger and then the last frames it was doing something weird at the center.

The air around it is very moist, no dry air around it.


Darn you caught me. I tried to edit what I wrote in time. I was looking at the very bottom half that looked like it was getting split near the last few frames, but I guess I was looking in the wrong spot.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#37 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:50 pm

This is what the nhc should say.

A tropical distrabance over the southwestern BOC is slowly moving northward. In surface obs and satellite shows that a LLC is forming. Convection is organizing over that LLC. In a tropical depression or storm maybe forming at any time.

A recon plane is planed for later today.

This is what I plan to see from the nhc

A area of convection is over the BOC, which has upper level shear and closeness to land should make any development slow.

With no tropical storm development next couple of days.

Kind of like that.
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#38 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:52 pm

Hey Skysummit I'm just saying. :roll:
Last edited by HurricaneHunter914 on Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#39 Postby Aquawind » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:52 pm

Another INVEST !!!!!!!!!!??????? Yeowser.. Seems like alot of INVESTS.. Have they changed the selection process? lol Wobble talk..LOL Ohh Man... I gotta check this out.. Visable had some rotation but nuttin to impressive this AM.
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Derek Ortt

#40 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:52 pm

has caught me by surprise


However, the cyclonic turning (not an LLC, just cyclonic turning) appears very close to land
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