Vigorous Central Atlantic Wave

[Jam151]

Yeah, this is a good looking wave. As previously mentioned, GFS is showing a healthy wave approaching the islands in the 48 to 72 hour range. Also, the Bermuda/Azores high is strong, but weakening slightly, which could allow the trades to relax a little. This combined with gradually lessening shear give this wave a better chance than other waves I have seen this season.

I agree with the Dennis and Emily comparison at this stage... they started as similar looking waves in a similar location.

So are guys comparing this wave to emily and Dennis when they were waves? If thats the case I guess yall think we have a cat 5 coming this way...ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Help!!!

[Jam151]

Yeah, this is a good looking wave. As previously mentioned, GFS is showing a healthy wave approaching the islands in the 48 to 72 hour range. Also, the Bermuda/Azores high is strong, but weakening slightly, which could allow the trades to relax a little. This combined with gradually lessening shear give this wave a better chance than other waves I have seen this season.

I agree with the Dennis and Emily comparison at this stage... they started as similar looking waves in a similar location.

So are guys comparing this wave to emily and Dennis when they were waves? If thats the case I guess yall think we have a cat 5 coming this way...ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Help!!!

If I was cycloneye i would evacuate right now!!! LOL all joking aside lets wait to discuss the real season in august. This will just disapate like every other wave this season. Things just are not like they were last year. People need to step into the reality circle because right now i'm feeling lonely.

[geogre28]

hello guys this is my first time posting on this forum,iam currently attending FIU studying to be a physical ed teacher but i also have a big hobby which is tracking hurricanes and ive been searching for a forum to be able to express my thoughts on current tropical weather hope to be to learn and enjoy my time here.thanks geogre

[Ivanhater]

I just posted the same thing over in the Waves thread, you stealing my posts Ivan?

Haaa, I saw the loop you posted and I thought, this wave needs its own darn thread!

It does look suspicious and at that low a lattitude it looks like a Carib. Crosser to me.

No doubt, I was just looking at some loops of last year, and the location of this wave reminded me of Dennis and Emily, here is a loop of the 2005 season around the time Dennis was forming, you can see Cindy moving through the gulf while Dennis was just a tropical wave like the one we have now , roughly the same location and structure, not saying this will be a Dennis, just some similarities.



http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2005 ... indy05.mpg

Let me post my post again for Jams sake...Nowhere did I say this was going to turn into a Dennis or Emily, I specifically stated that, so in case you missed it I put it in bold I think it is time for you to step of your sarcastic box, it is getting old...

[jabber]

it got the interest in the 5:30 TWO:\\



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS
NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...
PUERTO RICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

[jabber]

Welcome aboard.....

hello guys this is my first time posting on this forum,iam currently attending FIU studying to be a physical ed teacher but i also have a big hobby which is tracking hurricanes and ive been searching for a forum to be able to express my thoughts on current tropical weather hope to be to learn and enjoy my time here.thanks geogre

[Jam151]

I just posted the same thing over in the Waves thread, you stealing my posts Ivan?

Haaa, I saw the loop you posted and I thought, this wave needs its own darn thread!

It does look suspicious and at that low a lattitude it looks like a Carib. Crosser to me.

No doubt, I was just looking at some loops of last year, and the location of this wave reminded me of Dennis and Emily, here is a loop of the 2005 season around the time Dennis was forming, you can see Cindy moving through the gulf while Dennis was just a tropical wave like the one we have now , roughly the same location and structure, not saying this will be a Dennis, just some similarities.



http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2005 ... indy05.mpg

Let me post my post again for Jams sake...Nowhere did I say this was going to turn into a Dennis or Emily, I specifically stated that, so in case you missed it I put it in bold I think it is time for you to step of your sarcastic box, it is getting old...

Nah I called it the reality circle. Sorry though i probably should have made myself clear, someone esle was talking as if this would be like Dennis or Emily. To me these waves can be compared to the previous ten waves and not dennis or emily, i don't maybe it can though compared to them. No harm intended to you, I just think there will be nothing until august. All this is jmo. Who knows maybe it could become Emily or Dennis like some posters are hinting at, but i just think its unlikely. Normaly waves don't develop this far out in july unless its year 2005. We are in 2006 though and I've seen nothing to say it will be 2005 repeat.

[brunota2003]

that one isnt the wave we are talking about here...that is the ULL...

[Ivanhater]

it got the interest in the 5:30 TWO:\



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS
NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...
PUERTO RICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

Wrong area, the wave we are talking about is between Africa and the eastern Caribbean

[geogre28]

looks to me like this ull is showing no signs of a surface circulation and will likely weaken in the coming hours.

[Ivanhater]

looks to me like this ull is showing no signs of a surface circulation and will likely weaken in the coming hours.

Wrong thread, this is not the ULL, this is the wave between Africa and the east Carribean around 35W 9N

[windycity]

Welcome, aboard, Georgre28! You will love this board .

[geogre28]

oops sorry.i think the wave in the central atlantic is at a very low latitude and needs to begin a wnw path or it will run into central america.

[Ivanhater]

oops sorry.i think the wave in the central atlantic is at a very low latitude and needs to begin a wnw path or it will run into central america.

True, GFS is showing this wave moving in WNW fashion but it is a catch22, Dry air is to its north.

[geogre28]

yea iam really not expecting any activity till the end of this month, i actually think things are going to ramp soon like in a normal season things begin to get active towards the end of july more so in august.last year was truly something we dont see very often at all.

[Jam151]

yea iam really not expecting any activity till the end of this month, i actually think things are going to ramp soon like in a normal season things begin to get active towards the end of july more so in august.last year was truly something we dont see very often at all.

YES!!!! You are welcomed into the reality circle if you want. I agree with you.

[Ivanhater]

[Jam151]

It does look impressive though.

[windycity]

SOO, what are our pro mets thinking?

[Ivanhater]

Ya JAM, could just go poof tomorrow, but something to keep an eye on at the very least.