Ex-96L Invest,Comments

[SouthFloridawx]

GFDL is running on 96L again

WHXX04 KWBC 112338

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L



INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 11



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 11.9 53.0 280./15.9

6 11.9 54.5 268./14.9



STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.


[NDG]

You can clearly see a low or mid level circulation on the shortwave IR sat loop, centered just about where I put the L, just to the west of the small convection, my thinking that now moving at 15kts west, the convection is having a tough time to keep up with it, plus because the shear around 10-20 knots.

[gatorcane]

hmmmmmmmm....yes I do see that circulation still and the GFDL is picking up on it again....could it make a come back?

Try this loop folks:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[Rainband]

I don't see it. I checked Low mid and High and notta???

[gatorcane]

I don't see it. I checked Low mid and High and notta???

Did you try the loop with the link above. I see it where he put the L in the map

[Thunder44]

The LLC looks like it running out ahead of the convection, to the west

[NDG]

Rainband, I zoomed in on the loop, because the circulation is very small & poor on the southern side, I also sped up the speed of the loop and also forth & back motion, is hard to tell, but is there.

[gatorcane]

Rainband, I zoomed in on the loop, because the circulation is very small & poor on the southern side, I also sped up the speed of the loop and also forth & back motion, is hard to tell, but is there.

It's there, actually you don't even have to zoom in. I clearly see a rotation still with the convection blowup off the the east....

[NDG]

Rainband, I zoomed in on the loop, because the circulation is very small & poor on the southern side, I also sped up the speed of the loop and also forth & back motion, is hard to tell, but is there.

It's there, actually you don't even have to zoom in. I clearly see a rotation still with the convection blowup off the the east....

That might be the mid level circulation that you are looking with the convection, remember that when there is westerly shear & the storm is moving to the west fast, the surface circulation gets separated from the convection and the mid level circulation.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Right now the shear is decreasing so that should alow sme convection to form over the LLC.

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

96L is hardly moving I think this tiny system could come back to its former self.

[gatorcane]

to me looks like 96L is moving west still but has slowed some....but not much....

[wxman57]

You can clearly see a low or mid level circulation on the shortwave IR sat loop, centered just about where I put the L, just to the west of the small convection, my thinking that now moving at 15kts west, the convection is having a tough time to keep up with it, plus because the shear around 10-20 knots.
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 96Lsat.jpj

If there is any spin, I see it well to the west of the "L" in the image you posted. Probalby about 2 "Ls" to the left, just left of that small cloud element that is moving from south to north (maybe 30 miles west of your "L". Convection is dropping off tonight, and any MLC is becoming more removed from what's left of the thunderstorm that flared up this afternoon.

[Cyclenall]

How the heck does that not make sense?!?! Get your facts straight and look at the recent sats of Bud. Almost no convection at all.

My facts are indeed straight since I don't just go by looking at the convection. Another thing, if this had no convection at all, it wouldn't be a tropical cyclone .

[gatorcane]

You can clearly see a low or mid level circulation on the shortwave IR sat loop, centered just about where I put the L, just to the west of the small convection, my thinking that now moving at 15kts west, the convection is having a tough time to keep up with it, plus because the shear around 10-20 knots.
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 96Lsat.jpj

If there is any spin, I see it well to the west of the "L" in the image you posted. Probalby about 2 "Ls" to the left, just left of that small cloud element that is moving from south to north (maybe 30 miles west of your "L". Convection is dropping off tonight, and any MLC is becoming more removed from what's left of the thunderstorm that flared up this afternoon.

So you see the spin too Wxman? Is it low-level? Looks to me like the convection is trying to get closer to the center but still off to the east...there is a small blowup of convection north of the "center"

[HurricaneHunter914]

Shear needs to decrease significantly for this to get better organized.

[gatorcane]

looks like about 30-40K of shear throughout the entire Caribbean....doesn't look good for 96L

[wxman57]

You can clearly see a low or mid level circulation on the shortwave IR sat loop, centered just about where I put the L, just to the west of the small convection, my thinking that now moving at 15kts west, the convection is having a tough time to keep up with it, plus because the shear around 10-20 knots.
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 96Lsat.jpj

If there is any spin, I see it well to the west of the "L" in the image you posted. Probalby about 2 "Ls" to the left, just left of that small cloud element that is moving from south to north (maybe 30 miles west of your "L". Convection is dropping off tonight, and any MLC is becoming more removed from what's left of the thunderstorm that flared up this afternoon.

So you see the spin too Wxman? Is it low-level? Looks to me like the convection is trying to get closer to the center but still off to the east...there is a small blowup of convection north of the "center"

I'm not sure if there's a true rotation or not. But I can clearly see cloud elements to well to the west of the low on NGC's satellite image moving from south to north possibly at a height of 5000-10000 ft. So I don't think that there is any circulation near that convective burst. And it looks like the two are separating (spin & burst) tonight. I doubt that there is anything at the surface in the way of rotation.

I'm reminded of a quote from James Franklin that I got in an email a few days ago when discussing "better-defined" circulation centers. Something to the effect that the circulation always appears to be better-defined when the convection disappears and you can see the mid to lower-level clouds. I.E., when the system is weakening.

[tailgater]

Well I saw it (Circ.) earlier Just about where you put your L and it was fairly evident on some of the last Vis. images.

[gatorcane]

I really can't believe how hostile the Caribbean is now....looks like January as far as the strong UL winds are concerned....