spin around 33W and 8N

[SouthFloridawx]

Time for the latest model round up.

CMC - 12Z 850mb vort.
Develops an area of low pressure, probably a tropical storm east of the Islands and takes it out to sea.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

GFS 12Z 850mb Vort.
Nothing totally organized but keeps low level vorticity with the wave going into the southern bahamas and northern islands.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

NOGAPS 12Z 850mb Vort.
Is about the same as GFS but, puts the vorticity in the Eastern Carribean at the end of the run.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

UKMET 12Z 850mb Vort
Also keeps a broad area of vorticity but, weakens it no almost nothing at the end of the run. Also Puts it into the Eastern Caribbean.

Not quite in the NAM run yet... to far east and NAM is only 84 Hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 21N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE
CURVATURE WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW CENTER ARE OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF
DENSE AFRICAN DUST...THUS ONE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED
NEAR 14N37.5W AND NO OTHER ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

Here is the 00Z Round up of what is going on with the wave that started this thread.

The Canadian continually has developed the this wave and forms a closed circulation but, on this run it puts it off the coast of North Carolina.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
You can see what I'm talking about here. Notice the Dates as it says the 28th.



GFS brings this unorganized wave into the Southern Bahamas by day 5.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

NOGAPS continues to disoranize the wave before it enters the Caribbean by the 5th day.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

The UKMET brings the wave into the Caribbean and like the Nogaps it is also nothing organized.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

The North American Model shows the wave to the northeast of the Islands by day 4
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[SouthFloridawx]

06Z GFS continues to see some vorticity moving into the Bahamas.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation