To shed some light on the Accuweather graphic and JB's thinking, the idea of the very high risk along parts of the East Coast can be attributed to at least a couple of factors that I am aware of. Note, I do not do extensive research like JB does but based on his data and discussions with him, I can give a ballpark answer. The unseasonably warm waters in the northwest Atlantic should support a stronger Atlantic ridge later in the hurricane season which would tend to steer tropical cyclones closer to the East Coast. I am no expert with analogs and this answer may or may not be misinterpreted from Joe's research, but according to Joe, there is a correlation between hot summers in the Plains and East Coast hits coming after a recent El-Nino and Gulf coast hits. The hot ridge of high pressure in the Plains expanding at times into the Southeast should tend to steer tropical cyclones away from the north and northeast Gulf Coast and into the western Gulf, at least earlyon in a normal hurricane season. Things could change later in the season when the ridge breaks down and tropical cyclones may be recurved across southern Florida. I hope this sheds some light.
Smerby
http://www.accuweather.com
NCWeatherChic wrote:I know some of you don't care much for him. I sit on the fence with any Met...they all use their education and background to make an educated guess.
But looking at the graphic of the areas he considers low risk, mod risk, high and high risk. I don't understand how he came up with it and the theory behind it. Could someone please enlighten me? Why would he think NC would be very high, while the Gulf states are low to mod. except for Texas? (Hopefully I can add the graphic right.)
