Low level center is decoupling the Mid level center

[deltadog03]

your right vb...the LLC is very close to the area where it can really get going.

[Normandy]

Point is,
If Chris decouples completely, then he is back to where he was east of the winwards....a nake swirl with no convection in dry air.

[mobilebay]

It appears that the NW shear is decoupling the MLC and LLC this evening. Even makes it look like Chris is moving SW when in acuality it is probably a temporary unstacking of the centers. This will probably bring Chris a little closer to PR and Hispaniola once the shear abates later tonight, but overall I think it is too early to rally for his death as some are doing.

As much I would like to see Chris do a Debby from 2000, I just don't see it happening. The ULLs are still where they are expected to be and the ridge is as strong as ever.

it actually looks like the LLC is at or north of the current forecast track. I wouldn't be surprised to see this go back to the FL straits forecast if Chris gets reorganized.

All I know is as that the low level center is naked as a Jay bird. You can see it clearly, to the Northwest of the convection. Maybe convection will re-fire over that center shortly.

[Normandy]

WOnder what will happen to the MLC as it dives south.... PR will have an interesting night.

[mobilebay]

Point is,
If Chris decouples completely, then he is back to where he was east of the winwards....a nake swirl with no convection in dry air.

it has already decoupled. the question is will convection refire over the LLC.

[cycloneye]

WOnder what will happen to the MLC as it dives south.... PR will have an interesting night.

For sure I will not sleep.

[AJC3]

wind shear where the LLC is going is very low right now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

However....what I see as being likely to happen is that large area of high shear to the NE is going to shift SW-ward toward that low shear area. The NE 250MB flow should increase due to the two upper lows to the NE of Chris merging and beginning to retrograde. This is the scenario the latest GFS/UKM paint.

Chris is gonna have to put his "head" back on pronto and head W-WNW out of Dodge if it wants to avoid this. Don't know if "he" can do it

[vbhoutex]

It appears that the NW shear is decoupling the MLC and LLC this evening. Even makes it look like Chris is moving SW when in acuality it is probably a temporary unstacking of the centers. This will probably bring Chris a little closer to PR and Hispaniola once the shear abates later tonight, but overall I think it is too early to rally for his death as some are doing.

As much I would like to see Chris do a Debby from 2000, I just don't see it happening. The ULLs are still where they are expected to be and the ridge is as strong as ever.

it actually looks like the LLC is at or north of the current forecast track. I wouldn't be surprised to see this go back to the FL straits forecast if Chris gets reorganized.

All I know is as that the low level center is naked as a Jay bird. You can see it clearly, to the Northwest of the convection. Maybe convection will re-fire over that center shortly.

The NW shear that is causing this is not expected to last for a long time. We will see what we have when everyone wakes up in the morning. A very interesting situation to watch and learn from for sure, but I am definitely not ready to sign a death warrent for Chris.

[mobilebay]

It appears that the NW shear is decoupling the MLC and LLC this evening. Even makes it look like Chris is moving SW when in acuality it is probably a temporary unstacking of the centers. This will probably bring Chris a little closer to PR and Hispaniola once the shear abates later tonight, but overall I think it is too early to rally for his death as some are doing.

As much I would like to see Chris do a Debby from 2000, I just don't see it happening. The ULLs are still where they are expected to be and the ridge is as strong as ever.

it actually looks like the LLC is at or north of the current forecast track. I wouldn't be surprised to see this go back to the FL straits forecast if Chris gets reorganized.

All I know is as that the low level center is naked as a Jay bird. You can see it clearly, to the Northwest of the convection. Maybe convection will re-fire over that center shortly.

The NW shear that is causing this is not expected to last for a long time. We will see what we have when everyone wakes up in the morning. A very interesting situation to watch and learn from for sure, but I am definitely not ready to sign a death warrent for Chris.

I agree with you. I think Chris will put his head back on ( as AJC3 said)very shortly.

[vbhoutex]

wind shear where the LLC is going is very low right now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

However....what I see as being likely to happen is that large area of high shear to the NE is going to shift SW-ward toward that low shear area. The NE 250MB flow should increase due to the two upper lows to the NE of Chris merging and beginning to retrograde. This is the scenario the latest GFS/UKM paint.

Chris is gonna have to put his "head" back on pronto and head W-WNW out of Dodge if it wants to avoid this. Don't know if "he" can do it

Tony, are we seeing another Debby scenario? I haven't looked at a much in the way os sats, but why do you think that shear is heading SW? I ahven't seen an indication of it yet, but like I said I haven't had a chance to look at much either.

[AJC3]

wind shear where the LLC is going is very low right now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

However....what I see as being likely to happen is that large area of high shear to the NE is going to shift SW-ward toward that low shear area. The NE 250MB flow should increase due to the two upper lows to the NE of Chris merging and beginning to retrograde. This is the scenario the latest GFS/UKM paint.

Chris is gonna have to put his "head" back on pronto and head W-WNW out of Dodge if it wants to avoid this. Don't know if "he" can do it

Tony, are we seeing another Debby scenario? I haven't looked at a much in the way os sats, but why do you think that shear is heading SW? I ahven't seen an indication of it yet, but like I said I haven't had a chance to look at much either.

Have a look see...




The LLC has now completely come out from the NW edge of the CDO. I think the problem here is that Chris lagged about 5 degrees behind where the small col area (and its attendant low shear) wound up being.

Biggest problems now will be, can the LLC

1) regenerate convection
2) Stay ahead of the strong north or NE flow on the back side of the developing low or trough to it's NE.


2)

[btangy]

Even though the |200mb-850mb| shear is low, there is probably quite a bit of shear between the mid-levels and low-levels... which doesn't get picked up well by water vapor imagery or the cloud track wind analysis. It's something that occasionally is problematic when diagnosing the "shear" over the storm.

[deltadog03]

AJC i made a map on the other thread let me know if that is pretty much what your thinking.

[AJC3]

<snip>

I haven't looked at a much in the way os sats, but why do you think that shear is heading SW? I ahven't seen an indication of it yet, but like I said I haven't had a chance to look at much either.

Have a look-see at the high cloud elements to the NE of Chris...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Both the GFS and UKM were showing the NE upper level flow strengthening as the trough to the NE began to retrograde westward.

[mobilebay]

Could there already be two LLC's? one naked, and one under the convection.

[cheezyWXguy]

Even though the |200mb-850mb| shear is low, there is probably quite a bit of shear between the mid-levels and low-levels... which doesn't get picked up well by water vapor imagery or the cloud track wind analysis. It's something that occasionally is problematic when diagnosing the "shear" over the storm.

I have to disagree. While there is certainly shear over the system it is not in the lower levels. If it were then the LLC would have been significantly disrupteed and wouldve opened up. Also, I think the MLC is still intact with the LLC. I believe this because when the LLC moved out of the convection, the CDO has seemed to lose banding and any spin whatsoever.

[AJC3]

Could there already be two LLC's? one naked, and one under the convection.

Nope. Impossible for one to spin up that fast. Think of Chris as a large cylindrical tube whose top half has been cut off.

[mobilebay]

Could there already be two LLC's? one naked, and one under the convection.

Nope. Impossible for one to spin up that fast. Think of Chris as a large cylindrical tube whose top half has been cut off.

thank you.

[HURAKAN]

How possible is an scenario in which both circulations continue to go apart from each other and they system simply dissipates?

[TSmith274]

This is so interesting. Looks like a textbook example. It'll be interesting to see what transpires with Chris over the next 12hrs.