Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#21 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:17 pm

as posted earlier... 1/2 the models show a continued weakness in the ridge 5+ days out, others show the ridge temporarily weakening and then trying to build back slowly to the west, but hten weakening again. we need a few more days to know how strong, and persistent, that ridge is going to be.

I guess we also need to start looking at any ridging over TX that could be there in by next weekend and/or any early season fronts that could be traveling across the lower states by then in case they could be players too.

ga_ben · #22 Postby **ga_ben** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:18 pm

Drezee, what site did you get the STDS from?

#23 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:19 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:as posted earlier... 1/2 the models show a continued weakness in the ridge 5+ days out, others show the ridge temporarily weakening and then trying to build back slowly to the west, but hten weakening again. we need a few more days to know how strong, and persistent, that ridge is going to be.

I guess we also need to start looking at any ridging over TX that could be there in by next weekend and/or any early season fronts that could be traveling across the lower states by then in case they could be players too.

DFW NWS mentioned a front early next week in their morning AFD. They aren't convinced that it'll get much further past the DFW area though.

Here's a snippet of their discussion:

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE OVER NORTH TX WILL WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY MEANDER EASTWARD BY SATURDAY WHERE IT WILL ATTACH
ITSELF TO THE BERMUDA HIGH. STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW COMING ASHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
AN ATTENDANT COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN
THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH TEXAS BY MIDWEEK. FOR NOW...WENT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE DUE TO TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
UNCERTAINTIES.

#24 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:20 pm

Changed header of thread.

#25 Postby **drezee** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:21 pm

ga_ben wrote:Drezee, what site did you get the STDS from?

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... c/?C=M;O=D

SWFLA_CANE · #26 Postby **SWFLA_CANE** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:21 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:as posted earlier... 1/2 the models show a continued weakness in the ridge 5+ days out, others show the ridge temporarily weakening and then trying to build back slowly to the west, but hten weakening again. we need a few more days to know how strong, and persistent, that ridge is going to be.

I guess we also need to start looking at any ridging over TX that could be there in by next weekend and/or any early season fronts that could be traveling across the lower states by then in case they could be players too.

I'm far from a pro but I agree...The models show a general path right now but the atmosphere will change in the next few days and they will shift on every run. People from the Islands to South Florida to the whole gulf coast should watch closely. Things change from day to day.

#27 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:21 pm

I think any front early next week won't be a player since the storm will still be in lower latitudes, but any front on the horizon come wed/thur and beyond could definately have an impact on future path

JTD · #28 Postby **JTD** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:26 pm

Where on earth do they get Wed August 16 from? LOL. What are they thinking?

DESTRUCTION5 · #29 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:26 pm

ga_ben wrote:Drezee, what site did you get the STDS from?

Man I gotta stay away from that site..LOL

Website · #30 Postby **Brent** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:27 pm

jason0509 wrote:Where on earth do they get Wed August 16 from? LOL. What are they thinking?

It's fixed now. :lol:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1912.shtml?

#31 Postby **Buck** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:28 pm

NONAME · #32 Postby **NONAME** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:29 pm

Aug 16 was the date they sent Recon into 93L of Carolina.

Windsurfer_NYC · #33 Postby **Windsurfer_NYC** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:31 pm

Wow, shear is increasing ahead of the storm: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Sanibel · #34 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:32 pm

Convection improving as well as curvature.

A good eye will see this one is improving as it progresses today.

Most likely our first contender this year.

#35 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:33 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

It will be a TD as NRL has noname.

#36 Postby **Buck** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:34 pm

Most likely our first contender this year.

Yep.

#37 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:35 pm

Changed header of thread to leave TD only.

Scorpion · #38 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:36 pm

It's possible we can still get a TS, no? Recon can easily find FL winds to support TS strength I bet.

miamicanes177 · #39 Postby **miamicanes177** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:36 pm

cycloneye wrote:It will be a TD as NRL has noname.

they did that because it will at least be a TD. But NHC said that they might find stronger winds before the 5pm advisory and it could a TS.

#40 Postby **Lowpressure** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:36 pm

Wind speed not there for TS as per recon so far. Agree, TD

Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Who is online