SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

[Extremeweatherguy]

Now down to 55.9F on my thermometer.

[Lindaloo]

You guys and gals are lucky. We got a little bit of rain then back to humidity. I thought we were going to get a cold front, oh well.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
908 PM CDT THU OCT 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW STRATO CU TONIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME SW AREAS.
OTHERWISE...IT IS CLEAR. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
ACROSS INLAND AREAS LATE...SO WILL HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WITH THIS IN MIND...LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE...THE FCST IS UNCHANGED.
33
&&

Looks like even the NWS is in on the idea of 40s for lows north of I-10. It is sure going to be chilly tomorrow!

BTW, it is currently 56F at Hooks airport and in the 52-54F range on my thermometer.

[CajunMama]

You guys and gals are lucky. We got a little bit of rain then back to humidity. I thought we were going to get a cold front, oh well.

Linda, it just started cooling off here a couple of hours ago. There's still hope for you!

[Extremeweatherguy]

You guys and gals are lucky. We got a little bit of rain then back to humidity. I thought we were going to get a cold front, oh well.

your area will probably start to cool off tonight/tomorrow and by next week you may even reach the 40s for lows. Don't worry..the cool air is coming eventually.

[KatDaddy]

Weather station is setting at 55F. Fall is really here finally.

[Extremeweatherguy]

My backyard temperature was 48.2F at 6:15 but has amazingly dropped to 46.6F at 6:24! This is one of the steepest pre-dawn temp. drops I have ever seen (in October at least), and is likely due to the PERFECT radiational cooling I am experiencing. I wonder what my low will finally be when the temperature bottoms out?

[vbhoutex]

49.7º here in Spring Branch. Not surprised at all with , as you asaid, "the perfect radiational cooling". Fall appears to be here now with no more 90º temps forecast and fronts starting to make it in on a regular basis(another due Saturday night).

[Extremeweatherguy]

well, it looks like things have bottomed out here. I am at 46.4F right now, and so rounded down..the low where I am is 46F this morning. Hooks airports official low will probably be near 49F, IAH near 50F, and Hobby about 52-53F.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Sunday night looks like it may be even colder than last night. Current forecasts show upper 40s, but lower to middle 40s are not out of the question for areas north of I-10. Stay tuned..

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just for laughs (until it becomes a trend), check out the 12Z GFS's ARCTIC BLAST it shows entering TX next weekend:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
^^Front slicing in on Friday^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^Saturday morning is filled with snow and ice for the northern part of the state, and a cold rain (in the 30s or 40s) for most of SE Texas.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml
^^A frigid Sunday^^

Wouldn't this be crazy if it played out!

[jasons2k]

Doubt it will be this cold (as you said - it's the GFS) but it can happen. It's not too uncommon for the Panhandle to get its first snow just before Halloween. We had a pretty decent one when I was at Tech in the 90's. The all-time October record for LBB is 7.5" - and Amarillo has seen snow as early as Sept.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/climate/sno ... ecords.htm

[double D]

[quote="Extremeweatherguy"]Just for laughs (until it becomes a trend), check out the 12Z GFS's ARCTIC BLAST it shows entering TX next weekend:

That sure is interesting to look at. I wonder what the 18z GFS will show? (probably show the exact opposite) Has JB said anything about it being cold down south next week?

[Johnny]

MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH 2+
INCH PWS LINGERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TROUGH EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST...ALLOWING
STRONG FRONT TO CROSS SE TX AT SOME POINT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

[Extremeweatherguy]

18Z GFS not quite as cold and not snow/ice filled, but it does somewhat continue the trend. If this verifies, the period between next Fri. evening and Sunday could be the chilliest so far this year (beating out this recent front and the one tomorrow night):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _180.shtml

[vbhoutex]

Just for laughs (until it becomes a trend), check out the 12Z GFS's ARCTIC BLAST it shows entering TX next weekend:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
^^Front slicing in on Friday^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^Saturday morning is filled with snow and ice for the northern part of the state, and a cold rain (in the 30s or 40s) for most of SE Texas.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml
^^A frigid Sunday^^

Wouldn't this be crazy if it played out!

I must not be reading the map right. It doesn't look frigid to me. Maybe it is in the semantics. Cold for Houston, yes. Frigid, no. Correct me if I am wrong, but that map doesn't show us anywhere near frigid, but at 50º across SE TX.

[Ptarmigan]

MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH 2+
INCH PWS LINGERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TROUGH EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST...ALLOWING
STRONG FRONT TO CROSS SE TX AT SOME POINT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

More rain for us. I think this could well be the wettest October on record. At IAH, they have over 13 inches, making it one of the wettest October on record.

[Ptarmigan]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1036 AM CDT FRI OCT 20 2006

....OCTOBER SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE WETTEST ON RECORD...

OCTOBER 2006 WILL BE ONE OF THE WETTEST ON RECORD. OCTOBER STARTED
OUT DRY. IN FACT...THE FIRST NINE DAYS OF THE MONTH WERE RAIN
FREE. MODERATE RAINS BEGAN ON THE 10TH...WITH HEAVY RAINS DEVELOPING
ON THE 15TH AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THE
19TH. WIDESPREAD FLOODING WAS REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
MANY AREA RIVERS ARE FLOWING NEAR CAPACITY. AS OF OCTOBER 20TH...
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT RECEIVED 14.03 INCHES OF RAIN FOR
THE MONTH. THIS IS THE 4TH WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD FOR THE HOUSTON
AREA. COLLEGE STATION HAS RECEIVED 11.52 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS
MONTH. THIS IS ALSO THE 4TH WETTEST OCTOBER IN RECORDED HISTORY.
GALVESTON HAS RECEIVED 8.79 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS MONTH. HERE
IS A LIST OF THE FIVE WETTEST OCTOBERS:

HOUSTON COLLEGE STATION GALVESTON
17.64 - 1949 18.77 - 1994 17.78 - 1881
16.05 - 1984 12.91 - 1984 17.39 - 1877
14.65 - 2002 12.21 - 1925 17.64 - 1925
13.76 - 2006 11.52 - 2006 15.37 - 1913
10.62 - 1994 10.78 - 1973 15.00 - 1901

ALTHOUGH 2006 STARTED OUT DRY...RAINFALL HAS GENERALLY BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL SINCE JUNE. FOR THE YEAR...MOST CLIMATE SITES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAVE EXCEEDED THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL TOTALS.
HOUSTON HAS RECEIVED 54.10 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE
AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL FOR HOUSTON IS 47.84 INCHES. THE AVERAGE
ANNUAL RAINFALL FOR COLLEGE STATION IS 39.67 INCHES. THUS FAR...
EASTERWOOD FIELD HAS RECEIVED 42.13 INCHES. GALVESTON HAS RECEIVED
42.37 INCHES OF RAIN IN 2006. THE AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL FOR THE
CITY IS 43.84 INCHES.

THERE ARE TWO MORE RAINY EPISODES POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION. THE FIRST
WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THE SECOND AND POTENTIALLY
HEAVIER EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEK. BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OCTOBER 2006 COULD BE THE WETTEST OCTOBER
IN RECORDED HISTORY.

&&

HERE ARE SOME FIVE DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FOR SOME CLIMATE SITES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS:

SITE SUN MON TUE WED THU TOTAL OCT

IAH 2.40 5.17 0.00 3.59 0.75 11.91 13.76
HOU 4.21 6.96 0.00 0.55 0.21 11.93 14.03
GLS 2.16 3.91 0.00 TRACE TRACE 6.07 8.79
CLL 0.08 5.28 0.00 2.55 0.48 8.39 11.52
CXO 1.22 11.49 0.00 2.96 0.69 16.36 17.25
UTS 0.61 3.29 0.00 1.84 0.23 5.74 8.18
SGR 2.04 3.53 0.00 0.01 0.08 6.66 8.62
DWH 1.05 4.00 0.00 2.07 0.24 7.36 9.78
LBX 8.12 1.41 0.00 0.01 TRACE 9.54 13.10
LVJ 5.09 4.95 0.00 0.05 0.03 10.12 12.90
HGX 2.22 3.68 0.00 TRACE 0.07 5.97 7.90

&&

HERE ARE SOME COOPERATIVE OBSERVATION RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE LAST
FEW DAYS. THESE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TALLIES ENDING
AT 7 AM.

CITY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY

ANAHUAC 8.20 2.00 0.00 0.00
BAYTOWN 6.44 N/A N/A N/A
CALDWELL 0.00 3.90 0.00 2.75
CLODINE 5.70 2.54 0.00 N/A
CLEVELAND 6.20 2.45 0.00 2.85
CROCKETT 0.70 2.74 0.00 0.57
EDNA 3.86 0.00 0.00 TRACE
HOU HEIGHTS 6.39 2.16 0.00 0.52
JAMAICA BEACH 6.26 1.12 0.00 TRACE
LIBERTY 6.00 5.30 0.00 N/A
LIVINGSTON 6.55 5.30 0.00 4.55
MADISONVILLE 2.75 1.76 0.00 1.82
MATAGORDA 1.56 0.25 0.00 0.00
NEW CANEY 6.07 3.09 0.00 3.52
RICHMOND 4.37 0.99 0.00 0.00
TEXAS CITY 6.43 1.18 0.00 0.10
WHARTON 3.19 0.59 0.03 0.03

$$

Link

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder if the warm Gulf of Mexico is contributing to this wet October?

[Yankeegirl]

Hey,,. I am going to the air show tomorrow at ellington field, and I was wondering what the rain chances are tomorrow afternoon... ya think i am safe to go?? I hate buying the tickets and have it rained or clouded out...