Tropical Depression Rosa (EPAC)

[MGC]

Rosa is likely near peak. Attention should be turned to the promising looking disturbance a good ways SW of Rosa. It is already showing rotation and could be a TD soon.......MGC

[CrazyC83]

Probably is peaking, that is correct.

It's tough for anything to form in November in the EPac.

[HurricaneBill]

I think the latest a hurricane formed in the EPAC was Hurricane Winnie in early December 1983.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 092034
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006
100 PM PST THU NOV 09 2006

AFTER LOOKING SURPRISINGLY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...ROSA NOW APPEARS INCREASINGLY LESS ORGANIZED. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NO LONGER AS WELL-DEFINED...CONVECTION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISPLACED EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...AND THE PRESENCE OF ARC CLOUDS IMPLIES THAT DRY AIR
IS NOW AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. STILL...SHEARED CYCLONES SUCH AS ROSA
OFTEN DISPLAY FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN.
ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT IN LINE WITH
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO ANTICIPATE WHETHER THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...OR LACK
THEREOF...IS THE BEGINNING OF A LONGER-TERM WEAKENING TREND OR IS
JUST A SHORTER-TERM FLUCTUATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE
LATTER AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST GRADUALLY
INCREASING SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT STEADY WEAKENING...WITH
THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN THREE DAYS OR LESS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ROSA HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 350/04. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
HIGHLY DIVERGENT...ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW ROSA MOVING VERY
FAR IN ANY DIRECTION. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST...WHILE THE GFDN SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY DUE IN PART TO VARIATIONS IN
THE DEPTH OF THE MODEL CYCLONES. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER AND
SHALLOWER CYCLONE MOVING MORE TOWARD THE WEST WHILE THE GFDN SHOWS
A STRONG AND DEEPER CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN...BUT LEANS MORE TOWARD THE
WEAKER AND SHALLOWER GFS SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 15.8N 105.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 16.2N 105.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 16.6N 105.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 17.0N 106.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 17.5N 106.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 12/1800Z 18.5N 107.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 13/1800Z 19.0N 108.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Coredesat]

TD:

WTPZ44 KNHC 100237
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006
700 PM PST THU NOV 09 2006

VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A RATHER
DISORGANIZED...SHEARED...TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING. SHIP
A8GU7...QUALITY CONTROLLED FOR ACCURACY...REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
10 KT WINDS WITH A 1009 MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ABOUT 85 N MI
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THE SHIP
REPORT AND THE 30 KT DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH
INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR AS THE PRIMARY INHIBITOR...WEAKENING THE
DEPRESSION TO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST FSU
UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE SHOWS A SIMILAR OUTCOME.

IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO FIX THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/4...DRIFTING NORTHWARD WITHIN
THE SHALLOW LAYER FLOW OF A LOW- TO MID- LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. ROSA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN INCREASINGLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE/ECMWF/UKMET...WHICH
REFLECT A SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 16.1N 105.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 16.9N 105.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 17.3N 106.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 12/0000Z 17.8N 106.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 13/0000Z 19.0N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[Ptarmigan]

The EPAC is still somewhat active. I remember in 1994, there was a Hurricane Rosa that hit Mexico and went northeast towards Texas. It was responsible for the great October 1994 Texas Flood. It is one of the most widespread flooding and heavy rain event in Texas.

[Chacor]

WTPZ44 KNHC 100808
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006
100 AM PST FRI NOV 10 2006

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ROSA IS RAPIDLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND MAY NOT EVEN
BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANY LONGER. HOWEVER...JUST IN CASE ANOTHER
BURST OF CONVECTION FIRES OFF NEAR THE CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS BEING
MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL ENTITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTER
POSITION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BEST. A 10/0000Z TRMM
OVERPASS ALONG WITH A 10/0042Z QUIKSCAT EDGE SWATH...BOTH OF WHICH
CAME IN AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS ISSUED...SUGGEST THAT THE
BROAD CENTER OF ROSA IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FURTHERMORE...THE CIRCULATION OF ROSA APPEARS
TO BE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE LARGER DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLOW
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THE ROSA
REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE OTHER
DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC CONSENSUS MODELS.

SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 450 NMI SOUTHWEST OF ROSA. THE
ENHANCED SHEAR PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING
TREND...AND PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IN THE LONGER TERM. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT ROSA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER
DISTURBANCE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHWEST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.7N 105.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.0N 106.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 11/0600Z 16.3N 106.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.6N 106.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

In a Fujiwhara with 95E.

[Chacor]

WTPZ44 KNHC 101449
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006
700 AM PST FRI NOV 10 2006

THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT RESUMED JUST AFTER 06 UTC HAS PERSISTED
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SO ROSA LIVES ON A LITTLE LONGER AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CONVECTION IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND NOT
EXTENSIVE...HOWEVER...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN STRONG OVER
THIS SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE. ACCORDINGLY THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS
WEAKENING...AND ALTHOUGH THE GFDL STILL FORECASTS ROSA TO REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THAT MODEL HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS FORECAST
INTENSITY AND LOSES THE CIRCULATION SOONER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE ITS
PREDECESSOR...ANTICIPATES ROSA TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY.

ROSA IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE VERY QUICKLY...BUT ITS AVERAGE MOTION
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN ABOUT 325/3. ONCE THE CONVECTION
IS SEPARATED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BY THE SHEAR...THE CENTER OF
EX-ROSA WILL PROBABLY BE PULLED MORE WESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IN BETWEEN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHWEST AND THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO ITS SOUTHWEST.
THIS IS THE SOLUTION SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...WHILE THE GFDL TAKES A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER CYCLONE FARTHER NORTH. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW
THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG BUT A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 16.1N 106.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 16.5N 106.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 11/1200Z 16.9N 107.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 12/0000Z 17.2N 108.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 102044
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006
100 PM PST FRI NOV 10 2006

DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRETCHED OUT INTO A BROKEN LINE WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SINCE THE
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME SO POORLY-DEFINED...AND SINCE THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS LACKED MUCH ORGANIZATION FOR SEVERAL HOURS...ROSA
HAS LOST THE CHARACTERISTICS REQUIRED TO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. NO FORECAST POINTS ARE PROVIDED SINCE IT APPEARS THIS
SYSTEM IS OPENING UP INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH.
ONSHORE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH COULD BRING SOME
RAINFALL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND MANZANILLO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON ROSA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 16.2N 106.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB