The January 5-12, 2007 Warm Spell: Some Thoughts

[donsutherland1]

The 1/4 12z MOS (MEX) guidance for the highest readings in the imminent 1/5-7 blowtorch in the East follows:

Boston: 60°
Burlington: 52°
Chicago: 52°
Detroit: 55°
New York City: 70°
Philadelphia: 70°
Richmond: 75°
Washington, DC (DCA): 71°

[JonathanBelles]

how cold do you think it will get with the proposed "siberia clipper system" coming in?

[donsutherland1]

The 1/5 0z MOS (MAV) guidance for the highest readings in the imminent 1/5-7 blowtorch in the East follows:

Boston: 62°
Burlington: 53°
Chicago: 53°
Detroit: 55°
New York City: 70°
Philadelphia: 70°
Richmond: 76°
Washington, DC (DCA): 71°

[donsutherland1]

So far, an examination of the historic experience has proved useful in assessing the potential magnitude of the blowtorch now unfolding in the East. On 12/25, I noted:

At this time, that kind of warmth should be seen as offering some insight into the potential magnitude of the 1/5-12 warm period at its warmest: 50° or better in Chicago and Detroit, 60s or above in the Mid-Atlantic region (possibly a 70° reading in parts of the Mid-Atlantic e.g., at Richmond), possibly 60° or above as far north as Boston and 50° or above in Burlington.

Through 1 pm today, the highest temperatures recorded in select cities was:

Boston: 63° (broke the record of 62° set in 1993)
Burlington: 55° (near the record of 57° set in 1950)
Chicago: 50°
Detroit: 52°
New York City: 60°
Philadelphia: 59°
Richmond: 65°
Washington, DC (DCA): 58°

The 1/5 12z MOS (MEX) numbers for tomorrow, which should prove the warmest day of the period in much of the East follow:

Boston: 62°
Burlington: 55°
New York City: 71°
Philadelphia: 69°
Richmond: 76°
Washington, DC (DCA): 70°

[donsutherland1]

At 11 pm, the temperature in Philadelphia and New York City stood at 62°. Should such a reading hold up overnight and the temperature fail to fall below that level by the end of tomorrow, it would establish the warmest minimum temperatures ever recorded in either city in January.

The highest minimum temperatures for January are:

New York City:
59°, January 4, 1950
56°, January 13, 1932
55°, January 14, 1932

Philadelphia:
60°, January 8, 1998
58°, January 15, 1995
57°, January 4, 1950

The temperature has generally been running warmer than the MOS (MAV) guidance in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions. The following is a comparison of the forecast (18z MOS) and actual temperatures for 3z (10 pm):

Boston: MOS: 55°; Actual: 55°
Burlington: MOS: 51°; Actual: 55°
New York City: MOS: 59°; Actual: 61°
Philadelphia: MOS: 58°; Actual: 60°
Richmond: MOS: 63°; Actual: 68°
Washington, DC (DCA): MOS: 59°; Actual: 61°

The 1/6 0z MOS (MAV) is forecasting the following high temperatures for 1/6:

Boston: 68° (Daily record: 62°, 1913; All-Time January record: 72°, January 26, 1950)
Burlington: 55° (Daily record: 56°, 1890)
New York City: 70° (Daily record: 63°, 1950; All-Time January record: 72°, January 26, 1950)
Philadelphia: 68° (Daily record: 71°, 1950; All-Time January record: 74°, January 26, 1950)
Richmond: 76° (Daily record: 73°, 1950; All-Time January record: 81°, January 30, 2002)
Washington, DC (DCA): 72° (Daily record: 72°, 1950)

The highest temperature so far for the January 5-7 period for select cities through 1/5 11 pm is:

Boston: 63°
Burlington: 56°
Chicago: 50°
Detroit: 52°
New York City: 62°
Philadelphia: 62°
Richmond: 68°
Washington, DC (DCA): 61°

Finally, unseasonably warm air also covered southern Quebec. At 11 pm, the temperature in Montreal was 48°. In Quebec City, it was 39°. The normal high temperatures for Montreal and Quebec City are 23° and 18° respectively.

[donsutherland1]

This morning's low temperatures came to 59° in NYC and 62° in Philadelphia. If those readings hold up, NYC would tie its highest January minimum reading and Philadelphia would eclipse its mark.

The highest minimum temperatures for January are:

New York City:
59°, January 4, 1950
56°, January 13, 1932
55°, January 14, 1932

Philadelphia:
60°, January 8, 1998
58°, January 15, 1995
57°, January 4, 1950

As of 9 am, NYC had set a new record high temperature for January 6 with a reading of 66°. The sun is now increasingly breaking through the clouds. That pulls NYC within 6° of its all-time mark for January, which was established on January 26, 1950.

For comparative purposes, the forecast from 1/6 0z MOS (MAV) follows:

Boston: 68° (Daily record: 62°, 1913; All-Time January record: 72°, January 26, 1950)
Burlington: 55° (Daily record: 56°, 1890)
New York City: 70° (Daily record: 63°, 1950; All-Time January record: 72°, January 26, 1950)
Philadelphia: 68° (Daily record: 71°, 1950; All-Time January record: 74°, January 26, 1950)
Richmond: 76° (Daily record: 73°, 1950; All-Time January record: 81°, January 30, 2002)
Washington, DC (DCA): 72° (Daily record: 72°, 1950)

The highest temperature so far for the January 5-7 period for select cities through 1/6 9 am is:

Boston: 63°
Burlington: 56°
Chicago: 50°
Detroit: 52°
New York City: 66°
Philadelphia: 65°
Richmond: 69°
Washington, DC (DCA): 63°

[Stephanie]

Got the windows open and I feel like bringing out the beach chairs and suntan lotion - j/k!

It's incredible and so pretty out there. Marty's on his motorcycle and will be out there with a ton of others, I'm sure. Current temperature in Glassboro, 15 miles south of Philadelphia, is 68 degrees!!

[f5]

we may be talking about all time monthly highs here

[arizonasooner]

I saw that Portland, ME hit 67F today, breaking the previous record high of 53.

How the heck do you break a record by 14 degrees????

[gatorcane]

Got the windows open and I feel like bringing out the beach chairs and suntan lotion - j/k!

It's incredible and so pretty out there. Marty's on his motorcycle and will be out there with a ton of others, I'm sure. Current temperature in Glassboro, 15 miles south of Philadelphia, is 68 degrees!!

Don't get used to it those in the Northeast. The AO is becoming negative. Lows in the 20s in a couple of days with highs in the 30s....second half of winter should be cold. That is what usually happens to make up for the abnormal warmth.

[JonathanBelles]

Got the windows open and I feel like bringing out the beach chairs and suntan lotion - j/k!

It's incredible and so pretty out there. Marty's on his motorcycle and will be out there with a ton of others, I'm sure. Current temperature in Glassboro, 15 miles south of Philadelphia, is 68 degrees!!

Don't get used to it those in the Northeast. The AO is becoming negative. Lows in the 20s in a couple of days with highs in the 30s....second half of winter should be cold. That is what usually happens to make up for the abnormal warmth.

with that dip in temps, a lot of people will be getting sick.

[miamiwxgal]

Here in central Mass. today (Fitchburg) we topped out at 70! Hard to believe it's Jan. 6. Was outside pushing my little girl in her swing in short-sleeves and flip flops. I'm looking forward to some colder weather mid week...but I miss the snow!

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

At this time, that kind of warmth should be seen as offering some insight into the potential magnitude of the 1/5-12 warm period at its warmest: 50° or better in Chicago and Detroit, 60s or above in the Mid-Atlantic region (possibly a 70° reading in parts of the Mid-Atlantic e.g., at Richmond), possibly 60° or above as far north as Boston and 50° or above in Burlington.

Highest Temperatures:

Albany: 71°
Baltimore: 71°
Boston: 69°
Burlington: 62°
Chicago: 50°
Concord, NH: 69°
Detroit: 52°
Hartford: 72°
Montreal: 52°
New York City: 72°
Newark: 72°
Philadelphia: 73°
Portland, ME: 67°
Providence: 64°
Richmond: 73°
Washington, DC (DCA): 73°
Wilmington, DE: 71°
Worcester: 66°

[Stephanie]

Got the windows open and I feel like bringing out the beach chairs and suntan lotion - j/k!

It's incredible and so pretty out there. Marty's on his motorcycle and will be out there with a ton of others, I'm sure. Current temperature in Glassboro, 15 miles south of Philadelphia, is 68 degrees!!

Don't get used to it those in the Northeast. The AO is becoming negative. Lows in the 20s in a couple of days with highs in the 30s....second half of winter should be cold. That is what usually happens to make up for the abnormal warmth.

Yeah, I know....

[f5]

yesterday in the northeast looked liked temperatures you would expect in Texas(outside of the pandhandle) in january 60s and 70s after a hard freeze and we get those SW winds pulling warm air in from mexico

[JBG]

Tale of Two January 7's

Maybe a bit off-topic, but still relating to weather.

Early in the morning, on January 5, 1973 my father passed away. I was 15 at the time.

In mid-morning, January 3, 2007, the wife of the owner of my firm, who I've been with for 20 years and thus basically family, passed away. Both funerals were held on January 7, in equally snowless New York winters.
In the winter of 1972-3 Central Park got its first accumulating snow on January 29, about 2 inches or so. There had been some flakes on October 17 (record early), and some mixed bouts of rain and snow in November and December. This winter, Central Park has had no snowflakes. The previous record of lack of any snow was January 4, back in the 1800's.

It's amazing how G-d creates coincidences.

The weather was materially different on the funeral days. On January 7, 1973, it was about 18 degrees, with a brutal wind, after the funeral. Today, we were bathing in 55 degree sunlight, the day after it hit 72 in Central Park.

[donsutherland1]

JBG,

I'm sorry to learn of the passing of your father and wife of the owner of the firm at which you work. You have my fullest condolences.

[JBG]

JBG,

I'm sorry to learn of the passing of your father and wife of the owner of the firm at which you work. You have my fullest condolences.

Thank you. I just wanted to point out the coincidences of history in a small world.

[Stephanie]

I'm so sorry to hear about your boss's wife. It is quite a coincidence between the dates and thus, the weather.

[JBG]

I'm so sorry to hear about your boss's wife. It is quite a coincidence between the dates and thus, the weather.

The weather somehow ties into everything, which, I guess, is why we're all here. Perhaps there, somehow, is a G-d out there, since my father's funeral and cremation had no outdoor component, and we were outside for a good hour while, as part of the Jewish mourning process, the mourners filled the grave, shovelful by shovelful. Imagine doing that on a bleak, 18 degree day.

As much as we're all snow and/or cold-weather freaks, that would be too much of a good thing (well, 1973 was snowless as I said before).